UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya Prelim Odds & Best Best

UFC 305: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya is just over 24 hours away as Betting News continues to cover this weekend’s festivities. While most people are (rightfully) anticipating the middleweight championship main event, it’s important to remember that there’s betting value on the UFC’s preliminary cards, too.

As usual, I’m back with my preliminary card and early prelim predictions to help you get the most out of the early UFC 305 betting action.

What are we waiting for? Let’s dive in!

UFC Vegas 95 prelim predictions: 3-1-0

UFC Vegas 95 prelim best bets: 3-1-0

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya Preliminary Card Odds & Predictions

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, Aug. 16 at 11:33 a.m. ET.

Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker Odds — Heavyweight

Record: Junior Tafa (5-2) vs. Valter Walker (11-1)
Moneyline: Junior Tafa (-125) | Valter Walker (+105)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (-148) | Under (+118)
Most likely method of victory: Tafa via KO/TKO (+125)
Last 10 fights: Tafa — 5-2 | Walker — 9-1

Even though he’s the favorite, I can’t bring myself to trust Junior Tafa. The 27-year-old Australian has dropped two of his last three fights with his latest loss coming against Marcos Rogerio de Lima via TKO back in February. Meanwhile, Valter Walker is looking to bounce back after falling to Lukasz Brzeski via unanimous decision in his UFC debut, ending his 11-fight winning streak in the process.

With Walker also being the significantly larger fighter of the pair, let’s keep things simple with an upset win.

Tafa vs. Walker prediction: Valter Walker

Best Tafa vs. Walker bet: Walker ML (+105)

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Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos Odds — Featherweight

Record: Joshua Culibao (11-3-1) vs. Ricardo Ramos (16-6)
Moneyline: Joshua Culibao (-133) | Ricardo Ramos (+113)
Round total: 2.5 — Over (-13o) | Under (+100)
Most likely method of victory: Calibao via points (+185)
Last 10 fights: Culibao — 6-3-1 | Ramos — 5-5

Joshua Culibao heads to UFC 305 coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his eight-year MMA career. He’ll attempt to bounce back against Ricardo Ramos, who just picked up consecutive first-round submission losses to Charles Jourdain and Julian Erosa in the last year alone.

While neither fighter has produced results lately, I’ll stick with Culibao on the moneyline. The 30-year-old BJJ specialist has at least reached the round limit lately and will receive a boost that comes with fighting in his home country. The odds are also solid enough that I’m comfortable with riding an outright bet here.

Culibao vs. Ramos prediction: Joshua Culibao

Best Culibao vs. Ramos bet: Culibao ML (-133)

Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos Odds — Women’s Flyweight

Record: Casey O’Neill (9-2) vs. Luana Santos (8-1)
Moneyline: Casey O’Neill (+125) | Luana Santos (-145)
Round total: 2.5 — Over (-220) | Under (+180)
Most likely method of victory: Santos via points (+110)
Last 10 fights: O’Neill — 8-2 | Santos — 8-1

After an undefeated start to her MMA career, Casey O’Neill finds herself coming off back-to-back losses to Jennifer Maia (via UD) and Ariane da Silva (via submission). Her run won’t get any easier as she faces the up-and-coming Luana Santos, who improved to 3-0 under the UFC umbrella with a first-round submission win over Mariya Agapova just last month.

I’m predicting that Santos will win this fight inside the distance. The promising Brazilian has finished three of her last four opponents, which includes two first-round victories. O’Neill couldn’t even last two full rounds against da Silva and has been taken down three times in her last three fights, which won’t do her any good against Santos if that trend continues on Saturday.

O’Neill vs. Santos prediction: Luana Santos

Best O’Neill vs. Santos bet: Santos inside the distance (+250)

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Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns Odds — Featherweight

Record: Jack Jenkins (12-3) vs. Herbert Burns (11-5)
Moneyline: Jack Jenkins (-700) | Herbert Burns (+500)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-120)
Most likely method of victory: Jenkins via KO/TKO (-225)
Last 10 fights: Jenkins — 9-1 | Burns — 5-5

Australia’s Jack Jenkins is the clear-cut favorite in this featherweight showdown. The 31-year-old is hungry for revenge after a TKO loss to Jose Mariscal at UFC 293 ended his win streak of nine consecutive fights. Meanwhile, Herbert Burns’ best days appear to be in the rearview after being knocked out in each of his last three outings.

Considering how Burns has at least survived the first round in those losses, I’ll take Jenkins winning via KO/TKO in Round 2.

Jenkins vs. Burns prediction: Jack Jenkins

Best Jenkins vs. Burns bet: Jenkins via KO/TKO in Round 2 (+255)

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs Adesanya Early Prelim Odds & Predictions

Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes Odds — Lightweight

Record: Tom Nolan (7-1) vs. Alex Reyes (13-4)
Moneyline: Tom Nolan (-1150) | Alex Reyes (+750)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (+230) | Under (-290)
Most likely method of victory: Nolan via KO/TKO (-400)
Last 10 fights: Nolan — 7-1 | Reyes — 8-2

Truthfully, there isn’t much value to be had in this UFC 305 prelim bout. Tom Nolan — who’s knocked out five of his last six opponents — is the -1150 favorite against Alex Reyes, who has suffered consecutive first-round knockout losses. Putting two and two together, it’s easy to see why oddsmakers are completely backing the Brisbane native.

I suggest avoiding this fight altogether due to a lack of value. Having said that, if you’re dead-set on wagering something, Nolan via first-round KO/TKO is the only viable option.

Nolan vs. Reyes prediction: Jack Jenkins

Best Nolan vs. Reyes bet: Nolan via KO/TKO in Round 1 (-160)

Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn Odds — Welterweight

Record: Song Kenan (21-8) vs. Ricky Glenn (22-8-2)
Moneyline: Song Kenan (-175) | Ricky Glenn (+150)
Round total: 1.5 — Over (-151) | Under (+121)
Most likely method of victory: Song via KO/TKO (-110)
Last 10 fights: Song — 6-4 | Glenn — 4-5-1

Here’s a fight between two welterweights who could sure use a win at UFC 305. Song Kenan is in the middle of one of his worst slumps, dropping to 1-3 in his last four fights with a unanimous decision loss to Kevin Jousset back in December. Conversely, Ricky Glenn has gone three consecutive outings without a win, having fought Grant Dawson to a draw before being knocked out by Christos Giagos and Drew Dober.

Can we really trust Glenn after back-to-back first-round KO/TKO losses? Probably not. In other words, back Song to win via KO/TKO and move on to the next fight.

Song vs. Glenn prediction: Song Kenan

Best Song vs. Glenn bet: Song via KO/TKO (-110)

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Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar Odds — Flyweight

Record: Stewart Nicoll (8-0) vs. Jesus Aguilar (10-2)
Moneyline: Stewart Nicoll (-229) | Jesus Aguilar (+194)
Round total: 2.5 — Over (-150) | Under (+120)
Most likely method of victory: Nicoll via points (+135)
Last 10 fights: Nicoll — 8-0 | Aguilar — 9-1

The undefeated Stewart Nicoll makes his UFC debut on Saturday after finishing seven of his first eight foes with five victories occurring in Round 1. In other words, it could be a tough battle for Jesus Aguilar, who’s bounced back from his first-ever UFC loss with wins over Shannon Ross and Mateus Mendonca.

While Nicoll is a promising prospect, he’s yet to face an opponent on Aguilar’s level. I still think the former will win, but he may have to reach the round limit to get the job done. With that in mind, I predict this fight will go the distance — regardless of the winner.