Phillies vs Cubs MLB Predictions, Odds, Pitchers & Best Bets (7/4)

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It’s Independence Day in the United States, meaning all 30 MLB clubs are in action on Thursday. One of those contests will see the Philadelphia Phillies (57-29) and Chicago Cubs (39-48) wrap up their three-game series at 2:20 p.m. ET.

The Phillies took a commanding 2-0 series lead with Wednesday’s 5-3 victory over the Cubs. Zack Wheeler struck out seven batters across six innings while Nick Castellanos and Rafael Marchan each hit homers to lead Philadelphia to a third straight win.

Does Philly have what it takes to pull off the sweep? Or will the Cubs find a way to end the series on a high note?

Let’s answer those questions by diving into today’s Phillies vs. Cubs predictions and the best MLB bets.

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 42-48-1 (46.7%)

MLB Betting Today: Phillies vs Cubs (7/4)

Phillies vs Cubs Game Information

Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (57-29, 24-15 Away) vs. Chicago Cubs (39-48, 22-20 Home)
Venue & Location: Wrigley Field (Chicago, IL)
Date: Thursday, July 4, 2024
Game Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
How to Watch Phillies vs. Cubs: MLB.TV, Fubo, MLB Network

Phillies vs Cubs MLB Probable Pitchers

Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (16 starts — 6-3, 2.41 ERA)
Cubs: Jameson Taillon (13 starts — 4-4, 3.03 ERA)

Cubs vs Phillies MLB Odds & Spread

Cubs vs. Phillies MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, July 4 at 10:59 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Phillies vs Cubs Run Line

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+130)
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-150)

Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under

Over 7.5 Runs (-112)
Under 7.5 Runs (-108)

Phillies vs Cubs Moneyline

Philadelphia Phillies (-123)
Chicago Cubs (+113)

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Phillies vs Cubs MLB Betting Trends

Philadelphia is 7-0 straight up in its last seven games vs. the Cubs.
The Cubs are 1-4 straight up in their last five home games.
The total hit the Over in seven of Philadelphia’s last 10 road games.
The total hit the Over in 14 of the CUbs’ last 20 games played in July.
The total hit the Over in five of the last eight Phillies-Cubs matchups.

Phillies vs Cubs Predictions & MLB Picks Today (7/4)

All eyes are on the Phillies to see if they can sweep the Cubs at Wrigley Field this afternoon. It’s been a fairly one-sided series thus far with Philadelphia outscoring Chicago 11-7 through the first two games.

The Phillies’ dominance over the Cubs isn’t anything new, though. After all, Wednesday’s effort marked Philadelphia’s seventh consecutive win over Chicago, which includes a plus-3.3 average run margin. Additionally, Philly has won five straight trips to Wrigley Field by an average of 2.6 runs per contest.

Speaking of Wrigley, even though the Cubs are the home team tonight, they’re still the odds-on underdog. David Ross’ team typically doesn’t play well under that pressure as proven by its 20-29 SU record as the underdog this season.

For comparison, the Phillies are 49-23 SU as the favorite in 2024, which includes going 17-11 SU when the odds are in their favor on the road.

The Phillies are thriving as road favorites in 2024.

A weak start to this series also means that the Cubs are just 7-12 SU against NL East clubs this season. Conversely, the Phillies have won 14 of their 22 tilts against NL Central clubs thus far.

Philadelphia can continue that trend if they get a solid start from Cristopher Sanchez. The seasoned lefty has been close to unhittable lately, giving up just seven earned runs without a homer on 34 hits in his last 44 1/3 innings pitched — good for a 1.42 ERA in seven starts.

Furthermore, Sanchez is coming off a complete game shutout that saw him rack up nine strikeouts with only three hits allowed against the Miami Marlins last week.

With that being said, it isn’t as if the Cubs’ James Taillon is a slouch. He’s currently in the middle of his best MLB campaign to date and has pitched to a 2.16 ERA in his last four starts. At the same time, he owns a putrid 8.67 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies.

Will Cubs RHP Jameson Taillon finally find success against the Phillies?

Based on how this series has gone so far, I predict another Phillies win. Philadelphia has been better than the Cubs both in the last two games and throughout the MLB campaign and likely won’t be slowed down given Taillon’s previous struggles against the former.

I’m also going to ride with the Phillies outright this afternoon. Again, they’re on a seven-game winning streak against the Cubs and haven’t been. tested at Wrigley Field in quite some time. Don’t overthink things.

Phillies vs. Cubs MLB Prediction: PHI wins

Best Phillies vs. Cubs Bet: PHI ML (-123)

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your Phillies vs. Cubs MLB predictions today at BetOnline

Best Phillies vs Cubs MLB Player Prop (7/4)

With the way he’s been playing throughout the last few weeks, I recommend backing Trea Turner o1.5 total bases (+106) for today’s best Phillies vs. Cubs player prop bet.

In his last nine games, Turner is slashing .359/.405/.615 with 14 hits, four doubles, and two home runs. His impressive production led to him racking up 24 total bases (2.7 per game) with 11 of those TBs coming in this series alone. Additionally, it’s worth noting that he finished with the Over on this prop in seven of those contests.

With the Over also being 6-3 in his last nine matchups against the Cubs, I expect more big things from Trea Turner on Independence Day 2024.

Phillies vs Cubs MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (7/4)

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 42-48-1 (46.7%)