Phillies vs Braves: MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (8/21)

Today, two teams from the NL East, the Braves and the Phillies, are clashing in Atlanta. This evening’s game is the second of a three-game series, with the Braves having overcome Philly in last night’s match. The Braves triumphed with a score of 3-1, and even though they’re 6 games behind the Phillies in the division, they’re actually ahead in the regular season series with a 5-2 lead. One more series will be played between these teams before the season ends, but the Phillies’ lead in the NL East is gradually diminishing.

Once, Philadelphia held a lead in the double digits over the Braves in the NL East. However, after enduring two consecutive losses, they now only lead by 6 games. Although time is running out, there’s still a chance for the Braves to accumulate some victories and clinch the division. Recently, Philadelphia has suffered four straight losses on the road, and they are currently navigating a challenging road trip. They will be heading to Kansas City after this series.

Will the Phillies make a comeback tonight in Atlanta? Or will the Braves secure their 4th consecutive victory?

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: NL East Showdown

Game Information – Phillies vs Braves

• Location & Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Wednesday, August 21st, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:20pm Eastern

Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers

• Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies has a record of 11-6, an ERA of 3.45, and a WHIP of 1.16.
• Max Fried of Atlanta Braves has a record of 7-7, an ERA of 3.62, and a WHIP of 1.25.

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Phillies +1.5 (-215)
• Braves -1.5 (+185)

Money Line

• Phillies -103
• Braves -107

Total

• Over 8 (-104)
• Under 8 (-116)

Aaron Nola Starts Against the Braves Tonight

Aaron Nola is set to start for the Phillies tonight. Despite his strong performance this season, his last few starts have been unsteady. Nola hasn’t won a game since the All Star Break and has suffered losses in his last two road games. In his most recent two road starts, he has let through 7 runs in 11 innings with 17 hits. He has only managed to strike out 4 batters in each of his last four starts, but his last outing was commendable. When playing against the Nationals at home, Nola pitched for 6.2 innings without allowing a run, letting through 7 hits and 2 walks. The Phillies have lost 5 of the last 6 games with Nola on the mound. Given his consistent performance, he might have a challenging start tonight.

Fortunately for Nola, he has already faced the Braves twice. In these two games, he has an even record of 1-1, despite the games being months apart. In March, the Phillies suffered a 12-4 loss to the Braves, with Nola only lasting 4.1 innings. He conceded 2 home runs and a total of 6 earned runs on 11 hits in Philadelphia, but he managed to improve in his next outing. On July 5th, away from home, Nola pitched for 6 innings, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits and conceding 2 home runs. However, he struck out 8 batters and secured the win. The Atlanta team has a .251 batting average in August, which decreases to .237 when facing right-handed pitchers.

Regarding the Braves’ pitching, Max Fried has been selected. The left-handed pitcher has a high ERA at home and his WHIP increases to 1.54 at Truist Park. His recent performance has been underwhelming. Fried hasn’t bagged a win since June 23rd and his overall pitching has left a lot to be desired.

Max Fried Since July

• 25.2 Innings Pitched
• 6.42 ERA
• 1.87 WHIP

Fried has already had two encounters with the Phillies and both have resulted in subpar performances. In his season opener, he couldn’t even complete a full inning against Philadelphia, pitching just 0.2 innings and conceding 3 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks. Despite his performance, the Braves managed a 12-4 victory and Fried avoided a decision. In a more recent match against the Phillies on July 5th, he pitched 6 innings, giving up 5 runs on 11 hits, with 2 of those hits being home runs. The Braves lost this game 8-6. Fried’s performances have been on a downward trend since then, making his upcoming match against the Phillies a challenge.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Best Bets

Phillies vs Braves Prediction: Phillies Win

Best Bet: Phillies F5 TT Over 1.5 (-145) BetOnline

I am betting heavily on the Phillies’ performance today, expecting them to score some early and frequent runs. Given that they’ve previously performed well against this pitcher and have a .274 team batting average against left-handed pitchers, I cannot understand why the betting odds are so low. Not only have the Phillies surpassed this first five innings (F5) score in both their encounters with Fried, they even managed to score three runs before the conclusion of the first inning in one game. Despite only scoring four or more runs against the Braves in three out of seven games this season, they achieved this in both games where Fried was the starting pitcher.

The Phillies have a strong track record against left-handed pitchers, and Fried has already had two difficult games against them. His performance has also been significantly poor over the last two months. Despite Philadelphia only having one elite hitter set to face Fried today, I’m relying on historical data suggesting they should be able to produce some runs off him. Five players from Philly have managed a batting average of .300 or more, with at least 18 appearances against Fried.

• Alec Bohm: .333 AVG, 27 AB
• Nick Castellanos: .611 AVG, 18 AB
• Bryce Harper: .303 AVG, 33 AB
• J.T. Realmuto: .381 AVG, 42 AB
• Treat Turner: .395 AVG, 43 AB

Kyle Schwarber is the sole Phillies player with 20+ AB against Fried, batting under .300. Given the potential of the Phillies’ batting lineup, they are likely to put on a spectacular performance tonight.

Bonus Bet: Phillies TT Over 3.5 (-131) BetOnline

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