North Carolina vs Minnesota: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (8/29)

Thursday Night features a sneaky Power 4 matchup between two teams who may be taking a step back this season. The North Carolina Tar Heels deal with the loss of Drake Maye to the NFL, as they travel north to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Now this ACC vs Big Ten matchup doesn’t necessarily involve a potential conference champion, however we are still in for a great game. The Tar Heels opened as a 2.5 point underdog, and we’ve seen the spread flip the other way, with Minnesota now being the 2.5 point home dog.

Two Stellar Head Coaches Face Off

Mack Brown and P.J. Fleck are two well known coaches in the game, but neither have an ACC or Big Ten Conference Title. Fleck is an incredible 5-0 in Bowl Games as the Gophers head coach, but he struggles playing in a conference with Ohio State and Michigan, and now Oregon and USC as well. As for Brown, his Tar Heels lost the ACC Championship to Clemson in 2022, but he’s had 4/5 winning seasons since returning to North Carolina, yet he is just 1-4 in Bowl Games.

Both teams see a new look at QB, as the Gophers start New Hampshire transfer, Max Brosmer. He threw for 3,400 yards and 29 touchdowns last season, but can he do it at a Power 4 FBS School? He will certainly have some help on the ground with returning RB tandem Darius Taylor and Jordan Nubin, and WR Daniel Jackson, who led the team in all receiving categories last season, 59-831-8.

As for the Tar Heels, Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson has some big shoes to fill at North Carolina. He did a solid job taking over for the Aggies last year and I see him fitting into the Mack Brown style of offense very well. His 6’5″ stature lets him tower over the line and make crucial throws, boasting a 70.8% completion rate in his last 2 starts, totaling 72 throws. Can the transfer come in and pull off this upset in enemy territory? Or will Fleck and the Gophers find a way to win?

North Carolina vs Minnesota: Power 4 Week 1 Matchup

Matchup Information – North Carolina vs Minnesota

• Venue & Location: Huntington Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)
• Date: Thursday, August 29th, 2024
• Kick Off: 8:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: FOX

Betting Odds

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Spread

• North Carolina -2.5 (-110)
• Minnesota +2.5 (-110)

Money Line

• North Carolina -135
• Minnesota +115

Total

• Over 50.5 (-110)
• Under 50.5 (-110)

Will North Carolina, Hampton Run Over Gophers?

While the QB situation may be different in Chapel Hill, the Running Back room is not. Omarion Hampton returns after posting 1,500 yards last year along with 16 total TDs. He will once again be the offense’s biggest contributor, but there is some depth with USC transfer Darwin Barlow. They return 3 receivers and 2 tight ends for their QB to throw to, but defense will be a struggle for this team.

Mack Brown brought in Geoff Collins as a defensive coordinator and he will certainly bring a new energy to this unit. A couple of key transfers for the Tar Heels defense include DT Joshua Harris from Ole Miss and DB Jakeen Harris who will both make an immediate impact for a defense that gave up nearly 29 points per game, and over 30 on the road last year. As for the Gophers, the line movement suggests that Darius Taylor may not be able to take the field with a hamstring injury, which could be very detrimental to their offense. While I certainly wouldn’t call myself and injury insider, Minnesota could rely heavily on the ground game at home, which is totally fine with P.J. Fleck.

Minnesota also features a new DC in Corey Hetherman who used to be the linebackers coach at Rutgers. They lost a big playmaker in All-American safety Tyler Nubin to the NFL, however their LB core is solid with returning upperclassmen. Defensively, neither team is that great, which makes my bet a bit risky, however, here’s where I’ll be placing my coin in this matchup.

North Carolina vs Minnesota Best Bets

North Carolina vs Minnesota Prediction: North Carolina Wins & Covers, Under 50.5

Best Bets: UNC/MINN Under 50.5 (-110) BetOnline

Let’s look at the facts. Max Brosmer and Max Johnson are both QBs on a new team. Yes, they’ve had plenty of time to gel with the boys, but this will be their first live action look together, and it’s happening on national television. And it ain’t know easy win either, this is a one possession spread on the betting board. Both teams are going to come to play, but I think we see their running backs get heavily involved.

In my mind, lots of rushes translate to plenty of running clock, less chunk plays, and less scoring overall. In last year’s bowl games, the Tar Heels ran the ball 41 times compared to just 27 passing attempts. As for the Gophers, they pounded the ground for 44 rushes and just 16 attempts through the air in their last game. Yes, these might’ve been with different QBs, but even in their matchup last year, both teams relied on the run game to move the chains. The Tar Heels beat Minnesota 31-13 in Chapel Hill last year, so Minnesota should come looking for revenge. I think they do this by possessing the ball, running the clock, and keeping the North Carolina offense on the sidelines. Give me Fleck and Brown to play a meticulous chess match of a football game, with very conservative offense resulting in a low scoring contest.

Again, neither team is that great defensively, but I see the new QBs struggling in this tough Week 1 matchup, with this game staying out of the high 20s completely. Show me a 21-17 North Carolina victory and I’ll retire to Cabo.

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