NFL 2024 Fantasy Draft Primer & How to Bet It: Tight Ends | Betting News

Preseason games are in full swing, and you can almost smell the wings being cooked up at your favorite dive bar that is gearing up for NFL kickoff! We’ve covered the top three skill positions here at Betting News in our NFL Fantasy value picks series. That means only one more position to cover, the elusive tight ends. This is a position that for years only had about three viable options for fantasy, and then there was everyone else. However, over the past couple seasons multiple tight ends have exploded on the scene giving more value up and down the draft. So let’s dig in and find some gems!

This is an ongoing series to highlight players who REEK of value in NFL fantasy drafts. We aren’t talking about McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the 1st round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that I’ll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BETONLINE.

Let’s dive right into NFL fantasy football 2024’s early round value picks, starting with the tight ends. It’s the season of mock drafts, let’s get excited!

1. Tight End Value Rounds 2-5: Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid, the tight end for the Buffalo Bills, could be the main target for Josh Allen.

The Buffalo Bills selected tight end Dalton Kincaid in the 1st round of the NFL draft last year. The team’s general manager expressed his eagerness to make every team that overlooked Kincaid regret their decision. It’s evident that the Bills have high expectations for Kincaid. Towards the end of his rookie season and during the playoffs, Kincaid’s potential as a player was quite apparent.

This offseason saw Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis depart from the Bills, depriving Josh Allen of two of his key offensive assets. Despite this, the Bills do not appear to be worried, likely due to the presence of Kincaid. At present, Kincaid is available for drafting in the 5th round of NFL fantasy drafts, offering superb value for a tight end who could potentially match Travis Kelce in terms of targets this season.

Kincaid is known for his reliable hands, route-running skills, and his knack for creating mismatches against defenders, which makes him a potential top target in his team’s offense, especially in the red zone. Despite a slow beginning, Kincaid finished the last season with 673 receiving yards from 91 targets and only two touchdowns. Despite these stats, he still ranked as the 12th best tight end and his usage is expected to dramatically increase this season. From week 7 onwards, Kincaid averaged 5.7 receptions, and in 6 out of those 10 weeks, he had over 50 receiving yards.

While the statistics aren’t immediately impressive, it’s important to remember that tight ends typically require a season or two to find their stride in the NFL. With Diggs and Davis no longer in the receiving room, Kincaid has a strong likelihood of becoming the premier target for the fantasy team’s quarterback. Could this be a repeat of Kelce’s rise to prominence? Time will tell. However, Kincaid is poised to be a leading NFL fantasy choice for the tight end position.

Dalton Kincaid o77.5 receptions -112 on BetOnline:

Honestly, I’m a fan of all three futures props for Kincaid, but his receptions seem the most reliable. Last season, he secured 73 receptions even with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the field. Moreover, he played fewer snaps than the experienced tight end, Dawson Knox, for the initial few weeks of the season. As highlighted earlier, Kincaid averaged 5.7 receptions in the final 10 weeks of the season he participated in. If he maintains this rate for a full season, he would exceed 95 receptions. This might be the best futures prop I’ve discovered so far in my articles.

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2. NFL Fantasy Rounds 1-5 Tight Ends: Trey McBride

During the first half at Ford Field on Monday, Oct. 30, 2023, Lions tight end Sam LaPorta caught a touchdown pass against Raiders safety Tre’von Moehrig.

I’ll confess, I’m not particularly sold on Kelce, Mark Andrews or Try McBride this season, who complete the list of the top tight ends in the first five rounds. This is partly because I believe the value lies more in the wide receiver and running back positions during rounds 3-5. However, I’m not overly impressed with the receivers available in the second round, as many have uncertainties. Therefore, in drafts where I secure a running back in the first round, I might be open to taking a risk on last season’s best tight end, Sam LaPorta.

LaPorta made a remarkable debut last year. He ranked at the top among most leagues’ TEs with an impressive 829 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in his rookie season. These statistics are particularly remarkable considering he was part of the Detroit Lions, a team with many high-performing players. Although some may argue his performance might decline if players like Gibbs or Jameson Williams assume more prominent roles, I remain confident that he will secure a spot in the top three at his position.

LaPorta doesn’t have the age concerns that Kelce does, nor does he have the health issues that Andrews has shown. Furthermore, he’s part of the Lions offense, which is well recognized as a top performer in the league, unlike McBride’s team. In my view, LaPorta has the fewest uncertainties for this NFL fantasy season when it comes to drafting a tight end in the top 5 rounds. Therefore, if I’m going to take a chance on one, it might as well be the youngest tight end who is in one of the most advantageous situations.

Sam LaPorta u7.5 receiving touchdowns for -130 on BetOnline:

While it may seem contradictory to my recommendation to draft LaPorta, taking the under bet doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t be a top performer in his position. He still has to contend with Gibbs, Montgomery, Amon Ra St. Brown, and Williams. Even if the Lions offense takes a slight hit, if LaPorta manages to match or surpass his previous 81 receptions and over 825 receiving yards, he will still hold significant fantasy value. Opting for his under here provides a safety net against potential injuries, considering the challenge LaPorta may face in replicating his past performance.

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