Must Bet MLB Props: Home Runs, HRR & Team Totals | July 31, 2024
Happy Hump Day, everyone!
Get ready for an exciting day of baseball action as we zero in on Los Angeles teams. I’ve got a couple of hot picks to fulfill your betting cravings.
Let’s dive in and enjoy the game!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Last night’s card went 3-5 (+2.8 Units) | Last 7 Days: 21-25 (+11.8 Units) | Last 30 Days: 83-87 (+47.1 Units)
Team Total Prop: Angels F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+124)
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A Couple of guys gearing up for some early runs
The Stank:
It’s been a rough week for first five team total props, but we’re due for a turnaround. Let’s shift our focus to tonight’s Rockies vs. Angels matchup.
Kyle Freeland is on the mound for the Rockies and comes in with the second-worst pitcher rating according to Batters-Box.com. Freeland, a left-hander, has been a prime target for first five inning team total bets this season. With a 6.23 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, he’s allowed opponents to exceed 2.5 runs in six of his ten starts.
A real thriller #RepTheHalo | #SoCalMcD pic.twitter.com/3xI0Riy4TQ
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) July 31, 2024
Tonight, he faces a lineup with six elite hitters, one struggling hitter, and none exceeding the league strikeout rate. While the Angels aren’t known for their offense—they rank 8th worst in first five innings scoring—they’ve recently found their groove, averaging 5.33 runs over their last three games, including back-to-back games with 8+ runs.
While a regression might be on the horizon, the numbers and six elite hitters make this a bet I can’t ignore. The data is compelling, and I’m confident in this play.
Hitter Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+100)
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The Stank:
I love finding mispriced props, especially when a pitcher is coming off a no-hitter. Welcome to Letdown City, USA.
In case you missed it, Padres’ ace and top-5 mustache in sports, Dylan Cease, threw a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals last week. Today, he faces the loaded Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. While I’m tempted by the Dodgers moneyline in the first five innings, let’s focus on something else.
We’re here to discuss Shohei Ohtani to go over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI at even money. The Dodgers’ designated hitter, is the only elite player in this matchup. Ohtani hasn’t recorded a hit in two games but has scored a run in three straight. Today, feels like the perfect spot to get at least a base knock.
According to Batters-box.com, Ohtani exceeds this prop 66.36% of the time with an elite rating—based on 110 elite rating samples. This season, he hits this mark 60.42% of the time with elite ratings.
I love the spot, the price, and of course, Shohei Ohtani.
So, give me Ohtani to go over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI with Dylan Cease coming off the outing of his life at even money!
Sprinkle of the Day: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+300)
- When elite this season hits a home run 27.08% of the time
- Last three season homers in 31.82% of the time
- This is a fantastic price for Shohei
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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