MLB Must Bet Props: Total Bases, Hits & Home Runs | August 19, 2024
Happy Monday!
I’ve found two plays with unreal value today—one driven by dad strength and the other featuring a rising star in a favorable matchup. If you’re looking to dip your toes in, these might be the ones.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s card went 4-6 (+2.1). Should have been worse, but we will take it.
Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
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Brent Rooker high fiving teammates after hitting a ball into orbit
The Stank:
I’m fully backing dad strength here. Brent Rooker just returned from paternity leave and is overdue for a big game. Today feels like the perfect time to back him. After a two-hit game on Sunday, the Athletics’ outfielder comes into today with the second-best hitter rating on Batters-Box.com’s default ratings. He’s also in the top 10 for the current season.
Brent Rooker has been placed on the paternity list and is back home with his wife, Allie, who gave birth to their second daughter.
Here’s Brent Rooker talking about what fatherhood means to him, and how it’s bigger than baseball. #Athletics pic.twitter.com/zUC4Mgw83B
— Uprooted (@uprootedoakland) August 14, 2024
Rooker is facing Rays starter Taj Bradley, who struggles on the road and gives up a ton of hard contact. According to Batters-Box.com, Bradley allows hard contact 42.8% of the time. While he’s a solid strikeout pitcher, his effectiveness drops on the road. In seven road starts, Bradley has a 4.50 ERA, compared to a 2.83 ERA at home in 10 starts.
Rooker’s trends are impressive. In 41 games with elite ratings, he goes over 1.5 bases 58.54% of the time and records a hit in 78.05% of those games. The value on this play is unreal. I even sprinkled on his home run prop—when he’s elite, he hits a home run in 26.83% of those games.
Dad strength is undefeated. Let’s keep that streak alive.
Jackson Holliday 1+ Hit (-125)
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The Stank:
Another prop with incredible value: The third highest-rated hitter of the day has a hit prop set at just -125? Sign me up.
Sure, Jackson Holliday’s advanced numbers come from a small sample size, but I’m more than willing to ride with one of the league’s top prospects. Since being called back up, he’s been playing some excellent baseball, batting .269 with 17 hits and seven extra-base hits. Batting toward the bottom of the order might factor into the odds, but it doesn’t concern me today. If he gets at least four at-bats, we should be in good shape.
Holliday has also excelled against left-handed pitchers this season. Facing Mets left-hander David Peterson should give Holliday an edge. In 18 at-bats against lefties, the Orioles’ future star is hitting a solid .222 with a .333 OBP and a .778 OPS.
He’s another player with insane value this beautiful Monday. His home run prop price made my jaw drop—I had to pick it up off the ground and sprinkle on it.
Sprinkles of the Day:
- Jackson Holliday Home Run (+1000)
- Brent Rooker Home Run (+450)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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