MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & More
New week. New opportunities to screw over the books.
Happy Monday to all of you. Here are a couple props from the diamond that grabbed me.
Have an incredible week! Let’s sweep!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Last week was not the week we wanted. I got greedy and had a couple two unit plays that did not go as planned. Last week I went 15-22-1 (-9.2 Units).
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-130)
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The Stank:
The city of Brotherly love, Philadelphia. A town I will be considering home after how much I fell in love with the Phillies first five-team total. I might have to throw batteries at Santa now.
The Phillies have been the best scoring team in the first five innings, scoring on average 3.11 runs per game. At home, they are slightly better, scoring 3.33 runs. They are well over this number on their average. At -130, it seems like a misprice. Especially with Padres’ starter, Randy Vasquez, on the bump, who has been horrendous all season long. Posting a 4.93 ERA along with a 1.51 WHIP. He has allowed over 2.5 runs in six of his eight starts this season.
With the second-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com, Vasquez is up against a team with the highest average hitter matchup rating. The Phillies boast three elite hitters-Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and David Dahl. They also have only two hitters above the league strikeout rate. With every advanced statistic pointing to the Phillies’ potential for a successful day, it’s a clear choice to back them to score quickly and often in this game.
Player Prop Bet: Paul Skenes Alt 10+ Strikeouts (+210)
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The Stank:
The one and only Paul Skenes is back on the bump today for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Today, he is taking on the Reds, one of the most strikeout-heavy teams in baseball. They have the sixth-highest strikeout percentage, averaging 9.04 strikeouts per game. They are a hair worse on the road, striking out 9.50 times per game. In both the default (last three seasons) and current season ratings on Batters-Box.com, the Reds have nine hitters above the league strikeout rate. In the current season ratings, the Reds have two poorly rated hitters.
Paul Skenes plays baseball today. #LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/swdPq2SXfI
— SkenesMuse (@PaulSkenesMuse) June 17, 2024
Skenes has been outstanding since getting called to the bigs a month ago, averaging 12.42 K through 9. He has only gone over 9.5 strikeouts once against the Cubs in his second start. The Cubs have struggled with striking out this season, but the Reds are still much worse.
This is not a suggestion to avoid his original prop. Take the safer play at 8.5 and sprinkle on this alternative line. With Skenes’s exceptional performance and the Reds’ underwhelming performance this season, the potential for ten-plus strikeouts holds great value and promises an exhilarating experience.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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