MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Home Runs & More | August 25, 2024
Happy Sunday Day!
No Sunday scaries today, boys and girls. We’re sticking to the plays we know and love—nothing too crazy, nothing overthought. Just trusting our bread-and-butter picks.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Sunday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-1
Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+120)
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New York Mets star, Francisco Lindor smiling
The Stank:
As I mentioned earlier, we’re sticking to bread-and-butter plays. Time to capitalize on a pitcher in a tough matchup. Today’s first target is Padres starter Martín Pérez, who currently holds the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. Since joining the Padres, the 33-year-old left-hander has been fairly serviceable, posting a 2.74 ERA in August and allowing over 2.5 runs just once.
Slamcisco Lindor @DairyQueen | #LGM pic.twitter.com/WODkJR7Yc2
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 25, 2024
This season, Pérez has allowed opponents to exceed 2.5 runs in 50% of his starts. The Mets have already faced him once this year, on April 15, when he gave up three runs on six hits over 5.2 innings.
Today, New York features five elite-rated hitters, no poor ones, and only two hitters with strikeout rates above the league average in this matchup. The Mets also boast the highest average hitter matchup rating on Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings.
Ranking in the top ten in first-five scoring, the Mets have found more success on the road, averaging 2.79 runs away from home. Given their previous success against Pérez earlier in the season, this is a prime opportunity for New York to get their bats going early.
Hitter Props:
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
- Pete Alonso Home Run (+475)
Royals F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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The Stank:
After Friday’s big game, the Royals fell to the Phillies 11-2 last night. But today is a new day, as they take on Kolby Allard, who’s on the mound for Philadelphia.
Zero bias here, but “Colby” with a “K” just doesn’t sit right with me.
I digress.
The 27-year-old left-hander enters today’s game with the second-worst pitcher rating on the slate, just behind Marlins starter Adam Oller, according to Batters-Box.com. Allard has allowed the second-highest hard contact rate to opposing hitters (42.55%). Despite his 3.46 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over three games this season, he’s given up six hits in two of his three starts, though he’s only allowed more than 2.5 runs once.
On top of that, he’ll be facing a Royals team with the highest average hitter matchup rating today, grading as elite. Kansas City features six elite-rated hitters, zero poor ones, and only two hitters with strikeout rates above the league average in this matchup. The Royals rank in the top 15 in first-five scoring and are averaging 2.75 runs at home this season.
I trust Kansas City’s bats to bounce back today after a tough loss yesterday. Over 2.5 in the first five!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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