MLB Must Bet Props: Sunday Team Totals, Bases & Home Runs
Happy Sunday!
The weekend always seems to zoom by, doesn’t it? But let’s keep that weekend vibe alive with some exciting props from the diamond to kickstart your day!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Sunday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Yesterday’s card went 4-6 (+0.8 units). Write up went 0-2 (-2.0 units).
Team Total: Giants F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-130)
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San Francisco Giants stud, Jorge Soler looks to the heavens after a home run
The Stank:
I’m doubling down on the Giants to surpass their first five team total prop, especially with Austin Gomber on the mound. Gomber has been serviceable this season with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but he’s allowed teams to exceed this mark in ten of his 18 starts. According to Batters-Box.com, Gomber ranks as the second-worst pitcher on today’s slate. He’s prone to giving up a significant amount of hard contact, which the Giants are well-positioned to exploit.
Theory is now 4-1 (+4.3u)
Small sample, but still pretty cool. https://t.co/tAVEfkiJ7E
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) July 21, 2024
San Francisco comes into today with the second-highest average hitter matchup rating, featuring six elite hitters and only three batters striking out more than the league average.
Given the favorable conditions at Coors Field, I expect the Giants’ offense to thrive early, surpassing their usual scoring output and rebounding from yesterday’s performance.
It’s a promising setup for us to cash in today.
Total Bases: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-120)
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The Stank:
Let’s return to one of the game’s premier hitters, Mr. Shohei “Showtime” Ohtani, and bet on him to surpass his total base prop. According to Batters-box.com, Ohtani exceeds this prop 59.62% of the time when rated elite, based on a sample size of 104 ratings.
Over his last ten games, the dynamic slugger boasts a scorching .342 batting average and a stellar 1.141 OPS, tallying 13 hits with seven extra-base hits.
Today, Ohtani faces Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford, who boasts a solid 3.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP but tends to yield considerable hard contact—something Ohtani should capitalize on. Despite an 0-4 lifetime record against Crawford, today presents a fresh opportunity. Ohtani has consistently crushed pitches similar to Crawford’s offerings throughout the season.
I’m also keen on Ohtani hitting one out today at (+275). After the break, he’s poised for his first post-break home run.
In Ohtani we trust.
Sprinkle of the Day: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+275)
- When elite this season he homers 25% of the time
- When elite over the last three seasons homers 31.37% of the time
- Going back for the third day in a row. I have to
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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