MLB Must Bet Props: Sides & Team Totals | July 10th, 2024
HUMP DAY!
Happy Wednesday to all of you degenerates out there. The slate is filled with filth, and I am fully prepared to dish out some plays so you can hopefully put a little extra money in your pocket.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Tuesdays card went 4-3 (+2.3 Units)
Let’s keep it rolling!
Team Total: Braves F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100)
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Matt Olson and the Braves look to stay hot
The Stank:
If you are unfamiliar with my game, I am a massive first-five-inning guy, especially when taking full advantage of poor pitcher matchup ratings.
Today’s victim is Arizona Diamondbacks start, Slade Cecconi, fading a fellow Italian, which is typically not my cup of tea. However, all is fair in sports betting. Cecconi has the second-worst pitcher rating today on Batters-Box.com’s pitcher ratings. So far this season, the young right-hander is posting a 6.10 ERA and a WHIP of 1.31. He has allowed teams to go over 2.5 runs in seven of his 13 starts this season.
Today, the Atlanta Braves are a prime betting opportunity with the highest average hitter ratings. Their lineup is graded with an elite rating, featuring six elite hitters and zero poor. While they may not have been the most consistent scoring team in the first five, especially on the road this year, the potential is there.
At plus money, this play is well worth at least a sprinkle. Atlanta has been averaging 2.67 runs in their last three games. Let’s hope they can get their bats going early and cash in for us.
Spread: Mets F5 (-0.5) vs Nationals (-145)
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The Stank:
Happy Patrick Corbin Day to all who celebrate.
As usual, the Nationals southpaw comes into today’s full slate of games with the worst pitcher rating, according to Batters-Box.com. He will be taking on the Mets, who have owned him over the last few years. They are batting .312 with an OPS of .926 as a team against Corbin. On top of that, the Mets have nine elite hitters today (four in default & five in current season ratings). Corbin has been doing very well with striking batters out this season. However, the Mets have zero hitters above the league-average strikeout rate in this matchup.
Happy Patrick Corbin BvP day pic.twitter.com/m0JJr3jAVk
— Jobu’s Rum (@Jobus_DFS) July 10, 2024
On the bump for the Mets is Luis Severino. He has been very serviceable for the Mets this season. The former Yankee stud has an ERA of 3.83 along with a WHIP of 1.20. While these stats may not be exceptional, they are good enough to hold the Nationals down for a few innings. This is crucial, as it allows the Mets offense to go to work against a pitcher with even worse stats.
Both teams are close in numbers regarding the first five scoring, but with the Mets’ success against Corbin, I will always lean towards it being an awful day for Mr. Corbin.
Mets F5 (-0.5)
Sprinkle of the Day: Pete Alonso Home Run (+340)
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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