MLB Must Bet Props: Sides, Hits & Home Runs | June 12, 2024
Happy payday to those who celebrate. It is a beautiful day filled with baseball all day long.
Here are a couple of props that grabbed me for today’s slate.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
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My first bad day in a hot minute, but that is what I get for being greedy. Last night’s card: 3-5 (-2.89U)
Shake it off. Today is a new day!
Moneyline: Mets Moneyline (-155)
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The Stank:
Meet the Mets. Step right up and bet on the Mets.
Another beautiful day to bet against the god-awful Marlins. Today, on the bump for Miami is Braxton Garrett, who has been struggling for most of the season, having only two strong outings against the Diamondbacks and Padres back in May. He is posting a 5.81 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.22. Today, he not only has the worst pitcher matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com, but He has to face the Mets, who have the highest average hitter matchup rating, which is a few decimals away from being an elite-rated lineup. The Mets have four elite, zero poorly rated hitters, and five hitters above the league strikeout rate. However, Garrett’s average hitter matchup strikeout percentage is only 22.96%, barely above average.
Conversely, the Marlins have an above-average lineup rating today, with zero elite hitters and six hitters above the league strikeout rate. They have to take on Mets start David Peterson, who has been pretty serviceable in his only two starts this season. Holding the fully loaded Dodgers to only three runs in 5.0 innings pitched. His last outing was against the Nationals, where he went 6.2 innings and only allowed two runs.
The Mets are one of the better teams at home at not allowing many runs, while the Marlins give up many runs regardless of where they are. Coming off of last night’s 4-2 loss to the Marlins, this should be an excellent spot for the Mets to bounce back in the series.
Additional Play: Mets First Five innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)
- My entire handicap is based around the Mets having a successful first five innings
- Braxton Garrett has allowed over this number in three of his five starts this season
- Marlins allow the 2nd most runs in the first five innings (3.12)
Player Prop Bet: David Fry 1+ Hit (-160)
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The Stank:
It may not be Friday, but it sure is Fry-Day.
Going back to one of my favorite hitters to wager on, Guardians’ outfielder David Fry has been putting up incredible numbers this season, posting a .326 batting average along with an OPS of 1.024 with eight home runs and 29 RBIs. He is a young stud in the making. The Guardians faithful are probably googly-eyed over him whenever he walks up to the plate.
Today, Fry faces a formidable opponent in Reds starter Nick Lodolo . Lodolo has been a dominant force this season, with a WHIP of 0.99 and an ERA below 3.00. But, there’s no need to worry. Fry has shown his ability to handle every pitch in Lodolo’s arsenal. His exceptional performance against left-handed pitching, with a batting average of .375, an OPS of 1.276, and five home runs, is a sight to behold. It’s enough to make any baseball fan’s mouth water.
Sure, it’s not Friday, but it’s Fry-Day
David Fry 1+ Hit (-160) MGM | HR (+525) BR
Fry has the 5th best matchup rating today on https://t.co/PVf9G4uG61. He records a hit 75.0% of the time when having an elite rating. pic.twitter.com/XgIdT0R2yF
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) June 12, 2024
The stats only get juicer. Fry is the fifth highest-rated hitter today on Batters-Box.com. With an elite rating, Fry records at least 75% of the time (12 Elite Ratings). After going 0-3 in last night’s game, this should be an excellent spot for Fry to get a base knock and come through for us.
Happy Fry-Day!
Sprinkle of the Day: David Fry Home Run (+525)
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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