MLB Must Bet Props: Home Runs & Team Totals | August 1, 2024
Ah, Friday Junior—it’s basically the weekend!
With a super small slate today, I’ve got a few plays lined up that should satisfy our baseball cravings. Let’s dive in and make the most of this action-packed day!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
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Last night’s card went 1-7 (-7.5 Units) | Last 7 Days: 20-27 (+5.1 Units) | Last 30 Days: 82-94 (+37.5 Units)
Team Total Prop: Royals F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110)
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Bobby Witt Jr. is having himself an MVP caliber season, and has the Royals positioned for a birth in the post-season.
The Stank:
The first five plays didn’t quite hit the mark last night, going 0-2, but credit where it’s due—Dylan Cease was phenomenal. I’m impressed, though still a bit bummed!
But we’re back in action with the first five team totals, and today we’re focusing on the Royals. They’re up against Tigers starter Keider Montero, who comes into this small slate of five games with the worst pitcher rating. Montero is struggling, with the highest average hard contact rate (46.92%), the lowest strikeout percentage, and the lowest ground ball rate. His season stats reflect his difficulties—a 6.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. In his last three starts, he’s been hit hard, allowing 23 hits and 16 runs over 15.1 innings.
The Royals should capitalize on these struggles. They have seven elite hitters and two who are performing above the league strikeout rate. Recently, Kansas City has been solid in the first five innings, averaging three runs in their last three games.
With all these factors in play, it’s a prime opportunity for the Royals to get off to a strong start. Let’s expect them to make the most of it early and often!
Team Total Prop: Braves First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)
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The Stank:
The Braves are primed for a big offensive performance today, boasting the highest-rated hitters in the league, according to Batters-Box.com, with eight elite players in their lineup. Even though this Atlanta team isn’t quite the juggernaut it used to be, they’re still a force to be reckoned with.
Today’s matchup features Marlins starter Max Meyer, who’s had his share of struggles on the mound. With the second-worst pitcher rating, Meyer is notorious for allowing hard contact. While his season stats—an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 0.95—show some promise, he’s up against a Braves squad that’s eager to prove themselves and make a playoff push. Plus, the Braves just bolstered their lineup with World Series hero Jorge Soler.
It’s the perfect time to back the Braves and watch them capitalize on this opportunity. Get ready for a thrilling game!
Sprinkle of Day: Jorge Soler Home Run (+400)
- Hitless last night
- Elite rating
- Welcome home play of the day
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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