MLB Must Bet Props: Hits, Home Runs & Strikeouts | August 12, 2024
Happy Monday!
I got a bit bold this morning, so here are a plethora of plays from the diamond. Let’s have an incredible week!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Yesterday’s card went 6-5 (+5.01 Units). Last seven days 26-28 (+18.5 Units). Last thirty days 89-102 (+42 Units).
Matt Wallner 1+ Hit (-150)
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Twins stud outfielder, Matt Wallner crushes ball into orbit
The Stank:
Matt Wallner, the top-rated hitter today on Batters-box.com, has been on fire recently. In his last six games, Wallner is batting .350 with seven hits and six RBIs. Notably, when he has an elite rating this season, he has recorded at least one hit in every game, boasting a 12-game streak of elite ratings.
Today, Wallner faces Royals starter Brady Singer, who has struggled this season. Despite posting a 3.03 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, Singer has one of the lowest pitcher ratings of the season. According to Batters Box, elite-rated hitters record at least one hit 71% of the time. With Wallner’s current form and the favorable matchup, I’m confident in betting on him to record over 1.5 total bases at minus 150 odds. I’m willing to pay the juice for this bet and focus solely on Wallner getting a hit.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Matt Wallner Home Run (+440)
- Matt Wallner Double (+425)
- All half unit plays
Marco Gonzales Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)
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The Stank:
Heading to San Diego, the Padres will be hosting the Pirates, with Marco Gonzales on the mound for Pittsburgh. Gonzales has an alarmingly low average hitter matchup K percentage of just 10.79%. To put this into perspective, pitchers with a 32% or higher average K percentage exceed 5.5 strikeouts 60% of the time, making Gonzales’s 10.79% particularly concerning. He also has a 4.54 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. Despite only going under 5.5 strikeouts in two of his six starts this season, Gonzales has not yet faced the Padres.
The Padres, known for their disciplined hitting, lead the league with the lowest strikeout rate at 17.7%. They have no hitters with high strikeout rates against left-handed pitchers like Gonzales. Given the Padres’ batting discipline and Gonzales’s struggle with strikeouts, this seems like a prime opportunity to back the Padres’ bats and take the under on Gonzales’s strikeout total.
Taj Bradley Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102)
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The Stank:
One of my standout plays today is betting on Taj Bradley to go over his strikeout prop. At Tropicana Field, where Bradley typically performs at his best, he’ll face the Houston Astros—who have three elite-rated hitters and five players above the league strikeout rate.
The 23-year-old Bradley is known for allowing a lot of hard contact but also for his strikeout prowess. While his inconsistency can be a concern, his home/away splits are compelling. At home this season, Bradley averages 8.2 strikeouts per start, whereas he averages just 4.5 strikeouts per start on the road.
Despite Houston’s disciplined hitting and one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, Bradley’s home performances and his above-average hitter matchup K percentage of 24.26% make this a strong spot to back him. This is especially appealing coming off a tough outing in St. Louis, where he allowed nine hits and five runs in 4.2 innings.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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