MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Innings | August 21, 2024
Happy Hump Day!
Tonight’s showdowns present some fascinating prospects that are simply irresistible. Brace yourself to seize a few high-value opportunities that could potentially make your night!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-2 (-1.0).
New day. New Vibes
Diamondbacks First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
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The Stank:
Another day presents another chance to wager on the Diamondbacks’ team total over for the first five innings. Yesterday, we won this prop, courtesy of a solo home run by Corbin Carroll in the fifth inning.
AGAINST THE MARLINS?!?
Dbacks F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-154) 2U ✅ pic.twitter.com/7hLLkb4IuV
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 20, 2024
Today, Arizona could potentially face a more advantageous matchup as they go against Miami Marlins’ starting pitcher, Roddery Munoz. If you’ve been keeping up with my writings, you’ll know we enjoy betting against Munoz. The 24-year-old right-handed pitcher has a 5.88 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He has also let the opposing teams exceed 2.5 runs in nine out of his 16 starts this season.
Arizona prides itself on having the highest scoring offense in the majors, with an average of just below three runs per game. Their performance is even more impressive on their home ground, where they average 3.24 runs per game.
Arizona also has six elite-rated hitters, according to Batters-Box.com’s default ratings, and in the current season’s ratings, they have eight. The entire team averages an elite rating, facing a pitcher with the worst matchup rating in both default and current season ratings.
This is a no-brainer for me. The Marlins are second-worst in the MLB for allowing runs in the first five innings, beaten only by the Colorado Rockies by a mere decimal point.
Give me the Snakes over 2.5.
Royals (-0.5) First Five (-125)
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The Stank:
I’m astounded that the Los Angeles Angels have Johnny Cueto, the 38-year-old veteran, as their starting pitcher tonight. Yes, you heard right, *that* Johnny Cueto. The same one who’s famous for his shimmy before delivering the pitch. It’s been a while since his last start, which was in the previous season. He ended that season with a 1-4 record, a 6.02 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP. Given that his prime years are behind him, he’s likely to have a tough time on the mound tonight.
Currently, the Royals lack any top-rated hitters, a circumstance I would typically steer clear of. However, I feel compelled to make this move based on principle. Is it probable that others will notice Cueto on the pitch and react similarly? Yes. But, their bets don’t concern me.
Cueto ranks third from the bottom in today’s pitcher rating. Despite this, two hitters from Kansas City maintain “great” ratings, though regrettably, Bobby Witt Jr. is not among them. However, I predict Witt’s impressive performance will persist tonight.
The Angels are one of the teams that concede the most runs in the first five innings, with an average of 2.89 runs. On the other hand, Kansas City ranks average in scoring in the first five innings. However, they manage to score an average of 2.69 runs when they play at home.
Michael Lorenzen is pitching for the Royals today. While his pitcher matchup rating isn’t the best, I’m not particularly worried about the Angels’ offensive capabilities. They average just 2.27 runs in the first five innings and have a batting average of .200 against Lorenzen across 55 plate appearances.
Considering the cost and the fact that we’re betting against a guy who’s on the brink of retirement, this is a strong move for tonight.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
My favorite website for finding the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB bets is Batters-Box.com. While it isn’t the ultimate resource, it’s definitely a fantastic starting point for your daily baseball wagering adventures. In fact, I was able to increase by 98 units last season by using Batters-Box.com. Skeptical? Feel free to verify on my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also rely on FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for additional statistics to help me determine whether a player is worth my attention or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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