MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Innings | August 21, 2024
Happy Hump Day!
Tonight’s games present some fascinating opportunities that you simply can’t ignore. Prepare to capitalize on a few high-value moves that could potentially make your evening extraordinary!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-2 (-1.0).
New day. New Vibes
Diamondbacks First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
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The Stank:
Yet another day brings another chance to place a wager on the Diamondbacks’ team total over for the first five innings. This prop bet proved profitable for us yesterday, courtesy of a solo home run by Corbin Carroll in the fifth inning.
AGAINST THE MARLINS?!?
Dbacks F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-154) 2U ✅ pic.twitter.com/7hLLkb4IuV
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 20, 2024
Today, Arizona could potentially have an even more advantageous matchup as they go up against Miami Marlins’ starter, Roddery Munoz. If you’ve been keeping up with my notes, you’re aware that we enjoy betting against Munoz. The 24-year-old right-handed pitcher currently has a 5.88 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP, and he’s let opposing teams exceed 2.5 runs in nine out of his 16 starts this season.
Arizona takes pride in having the highest scoring offense in the majors, with an average of just below three runs per game. Their performance is even more impressive at home, where they average 3.24 runs per game.
Arizona also has six elite-rated hitters, according to Batters-Box.com’s default ratings, and in the current season’s ratings, they have eight. The entire team averages an elite rating, facing a pitcher with the worst matchup rating in both default and current season ratings.
This is a no-brainer for me. The Marlins concede the second-most runs during the first five innings in the MLB, with only the Colorado Rockies surpassing them by a mere decimal point.
Give me the Snakes over 2.5.
Royals (-0.5) First Five (-125)
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The Stank:
Johnny Cueto, the 38-year-old pitcher, is starting for the Los Angeles Angels tonight. Yes, that’s *the* Johnny Cueto. The one who hasn’t started since the last season, where he ended with a 1-4 record, a 6.02 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP. He’s well beyond his prime now, and it’s expected he’ll have a tough time on the field tonight. Ready or not, here comes his pitch—Johnny Cueto.
Currently, the Royals lack top-rated hitters, a circumstance I’d typically steer clear of. However, I’m compelled to take this chance based on principle. Will others witness Cueto on the field and follow suit? Quite possibly. But it doesn’t matter to me what others are wagering on.
Cueto ranks third from the bottom in today’s pitcher rating. Despite this, Kansas City still boasts of two hitters with impressive ratings, although, disappointingly, Bobby Witt Jr. is not among them. Nevertheless, I am optimistic that Witt’s winning run will persist tonight.
The Angels are ranked third in terms of runs allowed in the first five innings, with an average of 2.89 runs. On the other hand, Kansas City has a moderate performance in scoring during the first five innings. However, they manage to score an average of 2.69 runs when they play at home.
Michael Lorenzen is on the mound for the Royals today. Although he doesn’t have the highest pitcher matchup rating, I am not overly worried about the Angels’ offensive performance. They average a mere 2.27 runs per game during the first five innings and have a team batting average of .200 against Lorenzen across 55 plate appearances.
Taking into account the cost and that we’re betting against a player who is on the brink of retirement, this is a dependable move for tonight.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
I frequently visit Batters-Box.com to find the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB bets. While it’s not the only resource, it’s an excellent starting point for your daily baseball wagering. Last season, with Batters-Box.com, I gained 98 units. Skeptical? View my Action profile @cmarchio.
I utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN for additional stats to determine whether a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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