Mets vs Mariners: Sunday Night Baseball Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (8/11)

A new week is upon us and so is Sunday Night Baseball out on the West Coast as the Seattle Mariners host the New York Mets for this week’s nationally televised showdown. Both teams are in heated divisional battles as it currently stands, so as the playoffs approach, wins are a top priority. The Mariners are currently tied with the Astros in the AL West, leading the 3rd place Rangers by 6.5 games. The problem is they will most likely need to win the division to make the playoffs, as the AL West will only be a one bid team. In the wild card race, the Mariners are 3 games behind the Royals for the 3rd and final wild card spot, with the Red Sox between them in the standings.

As for the Mets, they are well behind the NL East leading Phillies, but they are just half a game behind the Braves for 2nd place in the division. That spot is going to be crucial as Atlanta is holding the 3rd Wild Card spot, while the Mets would be left out if the season ended right now. With both squads within half a game of a playoff spot, we are in for a real treat tonight, especially with our starting pitchers.

Luis Severino faces Luis Castillo as the two righties take the bump for their team. This is the final game between the teams in their only series this season, and so far Seattle has gotten the best of the Mets in both game. The Mariners shutout New York 6-0 on Friday and 4-0 last night. Seattle boasts a 36-26 record at home, and have won three straight games. Can they keep up the momentum? Or will the Mets finally bounce back with some runs on the board?

Let’s dive into this matchup and find our best bets!

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners: Sunday Night Baseball

Game Information – Mets vs Mariners

• Venue & Location: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)
• Date: Sunday, August 11th, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Mets vs Mariners Starting Pitchers

• New York Mets: Luis Severino (7-5, 4.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)
• Seattle Mariners: Luis Castillo (9-11, 3.48 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-184)
• Mariners -1.5 (+164)

Money Line

• Mets +123
• Mariners -134

Total

• Over 7.5 (-115)
• Under 7.5 (-105)

Two Righties Named Luis Take the Mound

We’ve got a low total in this matchup and it totally makes sense with these pitchers. Castillo thoroughly enjoys pitching at home, as his ERA drops half a run below 3.00, and his WHIP down to 1.07. But the best part; he’s coming off a a terrible home start. Last time at T-Mobile Park, Castillo allowed 3 runs on 8 hits to the Tigers as the Mariners lost 4-2. However, he still struck out 9 hitters in 6 innings. He shutout the Angels in his 2nd most recent home start, and I don’t trust the Mets bats at all.

Even though New York hits .249 overall but .265 on the road, they have literally been shutout twice this series. This is the final game of a LONG road trip for the Mets. This will be their 10th straight game on the road, which included a one day stop in St. Louis, and they have a three upcoming series at home to take a load off. Personally, I think they pack the bags early.

Severino has bad away splits, and he has not pitched well. He’s lost his L2 starts, allowing 10 earned runs on 14 hits in just 8 innings. This includes 3 total home runs. He’s lost 2 of his L3 outings on the road, and I do not trust the Mets to give him enough run support in this game. While I don’t necessarily think the Mariners score double digits, I think they can get to Severino easier than the Mets to Castillo.

Seattle has 4 hitters with an Elite or Great rating against Severino, and 5 others with an above average matchup according to batters-box.com (Do NOT Forget the Hyphen). Severino throws a 96 MPH 4 Seam or Sinker over 60% of the time, and 8 of those Mariners have a Great or Elite fastball matchup percentage as well. The Mariners have dominated this series, and I think they continue to do the same tonight on ESPN.

New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Best Bets

Mets vs Mariners Prediction: Mariners Win

Best Bet: Mariners ML (-134) BetOnline

The Mariners are playing great baseball, and despite dropping two games at home to the Tigers, this team is looking like a potential playoff team. The bats are firing, Randy Arozarena has filled in well in the outfield, and they will be even stronger when Julio Rodriguez comes back in a few weeks. Tonight, I think Luis Castillo shuts down the Mets and helps complete the Mariners’ sweep.

While it is hard sometime to trust the Mariners’ hitters, Severino is not himself on the road, and has been very iffy recently. I see the struggles continuing against a good fastball hitting team at home. This juice is not too much for me, as I am happy to pay the juiceman from time to time. Let’s root on the Mariner’s to make it four straight wins at home tonight!

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