Finding Value Bets in Today’s MLB Slate (6/13)
MLB is notorious for juice, but finding value is not as difficult as it seems. There are plenty of good spots using hit parlays, RBIs, Runs and team scoring props. There are plenty of great spots on the board today to sprinkle. We’ll use trends and projections to find the best value bets on the board for tonight’s slate.
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MLB Picks
MLB Odds
Teoscar Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+400)
It’s not Dinger Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean the model doesn’t like a few guys to go yabo. Hernandez isn’t the only player with value to hit a dinger tonight, as Corey Seager is another good option. Hernandez is hitting the ball well lately, with four homers in his last four games. He’s got a good matchup against Michael Lorenzen tonight, who gives up a ton of hard hit balls. Hernandez is in the top 10% of MLB hitters for expected slugging and Hard Hit%. That bodes well against Lorenzen who will need to use all of his many pitches to keep Dodger hitters guessing. When sluggers are seeing the ball well, they are hard to get out. Hernandez is seeing and hitting the ball well, posing a tough challenge and with wind not expected to be a factor, Hernandez at +400 is 40 points of value (xLine is +360).
Jose Caballero 1+ Hit (-120)
Trends and projections are big when it comes to finding value on the board. A player who is in the bottom half of many batting stats but is hot, poses unique circumstances. Caballero is exactly that. He’s recorded a hit in seven of ten games. With a 69% chance to get a hit tonight, there is more than 100 points of value. His line of -120 is expected to be closer to -230. While there is juice at -120, it is not close to what the line should be.
Caballero is seeing the ball well right now, having good at bats and it is paying off. Most of his underlying numbers have improved from the 2023 season, meaning the improvement in hitting categories is expected. While he’s hot and the line is below -170, it presents extreme value.
Tyler Locklear 1+ Hit (-105)
The newest addition to the Mariners lineup has made his mark with 3 hits in 4 games. With an implied win percentage of 62% according to Betalytics, there is 60 points of value on a line that should be closer to -170. Locklear doesn’t have enough of a sample size (12 AB) to use his numbers, but he’s having quality at-bats and is expected to be a quality bat. He’s hitting off speed pitches well in his first stint with the Mariners and given that he hasn’t demonstrated a lot of power yet, there is value on his line to hit a single at +190.
Garrett Crochet is looking to slow down the Mariners’ newest lineup addition. He’s been excellent this season, but like the rest of the league, he won’t have much a notebook on Locklear. Crochet’s best pitch is the fastball and he’s struggled to create value on his off speed pitches. If he can beat Locklear with his fastball, he may get the best of him. However, if Locklear sees the ball well and forces him to use secondary pitches, it tips the scales in his favor. It is hot pitcher versus hot batter and may the best man win.
Crochet & Ryan 7+ Strikeouts (+102)
Two pitchers with excellent strikeout resumes, against the two teams leading the MLB in K%? With both projected to go over, we’ll tease their line down and get plus-money value on a parlay. The Mariners and Athletics strike out more than any other team in baseball. Both teams strike out more than 26% of the time. That is way too much and plays right into the hands of two pitchers who have the capability to strikeout batters with ease.
Crochet is projected for 7.52 strikeouts, while Ryan is projected for 7.67. Both of those are a shade over their lines of 7.5 and getting them at a shade under their line at plus-money is good value. The implied probability of this bet is 57%, meaning this line has more than 20 points of value. Both guys are pitching well this season, despite struggling with breaking pitches. In a small sample, Ryan has had success against the A’s lineup. Given the seasons that these two pitchers are having and the lineups they are facing tonight, this is a good opportunity to build the bankroll.
