NFL 2024 Fantasy Draft Primer & How to Bet It: Running Backs

Last week we discussed my three favorite running backs for NFL fantasy football in rounds 2-4. Each running back holds with sneaky value or are, in my mind, the clear cut RB to draft in those rounds. Let’s dig deeper today and highlight a running back from rounds 5-8. This season the running back position feels deep, allowing fantasy players to go WR-WR with their first two picks.

This is an ongoing series to highlight players who REEK of value in NFL fantasy drafts. We aren’t talking about McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the 1st round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that I’ll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BETONLINE.

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So without further ado, let’s kick it off with NFL fantasy football 2024 top 3 value picks: the running backs. It’s mock draft season baby!!!

1. Running Back Value Round Five: James Connor

Conner could rack up TD’s this season

Close your eyes, and think about what qualifies as an RB2 to you? They should provide high expected workload, goal-line opportunities, pass-catching ability, and the potential lack of significant competition in the backfield. Now what if I told you there is a running back who fits this description in round 5.

James Connor is once again expected to lead the Arizona Cardinals backfield. Last season he was the 15th ranked RB in NFL fantasy despite only playing in 13 games. He amassed 9 touchdowns (2 receiving) and a career best 1,040 rushing yards. Conner also had 166 receiving yards off of 27 receptions, which his lowest output in his career.

The spike in rushing yards was padded with dual-threat QB Kyler Murray being out with injury for much of the season. But the same argument can be made for Conner’s down year in receiving yards. This ying and yang should work itself out with a healthy Murray and an improved O-line.

The 5th round in fantasy drafts is littered with receivers who could make a solid flex option, leaving either Kamara or Walker available early in the round if they fall, but very little options at RB. However, I’d much rather take Conner here even if I had to reach rather than the likes of Keenan Allen/Amari Cooper or Tee Higgins, especially if I load up on WR early in the draft.

While considering his injury history, drafting Conner in the fifth round mitigates some risk while offering considerable upside. His potential to be a reliable RB2 with RB1 upside in certain weeks makes him a worthwhile investment at this stage of the NFL fantasy draft.

James Conner o6.5 rushing touchdowns for +102 on BetOnline:

Conner has had 7 rushing touchdowns in three straight seasons with the Cardinals. While he hit 7 in each of his last two years, he managed to hit the end zone a whooping 15 times in 2021. This is when the Cardinals were a stronger team offensively. The additional of potential superstar WR Marvin Harrison JR from this year’s draft and a stronger O-line should help Conner sore past this futures bet.

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2. NFL Fantasy Round Six Value Running Backs: David Montgomery

Montgomery will be a significant goal line weapon.

The Detroit Lions love having dual threats at running back. Several seasons ago we saw the playmaking Swift and the bruiser Jamaal Williams light up teams with their 1-2 punch. Last season it was Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery who gave oppositions headaches all season long. And you can get part of this tandem in round 6 of NFL fantasy drafts.

While the presence of Gibbs in the backfield presents some uncertainty, Montgomery’s proven track record and the Lions’ strong offense make him a compelling option as a potential RB2 or flex play. The Lions top tier offense constantly opens up running lanes for Montgomery or sets him up at the goal line to produce.

Last season this offense helped Montgomery have his best career year with a whooping 13 touchdowns and over 1,000 rushing yards. This was all the while Gibbs had 945 rushing yards and 315 receiving yards with 11 total touchdowns. There is clearly room for two running backs in this offense. While I suspect Montgomery will lose some production to Gibbs, he should still outshine his 6th round NFL fantasy draft capital.

David Montgomery u8.5 rushing touchdowns for -122 on BetOnline:

I know, I know. This doesn’t really go with the narrative of value. But there are a lot of mouths to feed in Detroit. Both Gibbs and Jameson Williams’ roles could continue to increase. Then there’s Sam LaPorta and the Sun God himself, Amon St.Ra. Realistically Montgomery could still hold loads of value if he manages to stay healthy and get about 7 touchdowns and 900+ total yards. This is the 6th round afterall, and he will hopefully be your RB3.

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3. Value Running Backs NFL Fantasy Round Eight: Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb has league winning upside this late.

We are skipping round 7 as there just aren’t any running backs I’m willing to take. If I have loaded up on WR and RB plus a solid TE this is where I’m hoping to get my QB1 like Dak Prescott or Jordon Love. Instead we move to round 8.

There are several running backs I love here. Zamir White, Zach Moss, Johnathan Brookes all standout. But you potentially can draft a top 15 RB in round 8 if you are willing to take the risk on Nick Chubb.

Chubb faced a horrific injury last season which ended his season after only two games. But since his 2019 NFL fantasy season, Chubb has been a top 10 RB twice and a top 15 RB in twice. He has 1,200+ rushing yards in three of those four seasons and over 150 receiving in each. While it isn’t certain of when Chubb will return, you can also handcuff him late in NFL drafts, making the risk of drafting him here even more appealing.

If Chubb returns to form this will be a complete steal. The Browns will want to run the ball in order to control the game with their stout defense. The longer their offensive drives take, the more rest their top defense will get. Chubb will once again be the focal point to that plan. He oozes NFL fantasy value in round 8.

Nick Chubb over rushing yards or touchdowns on BetOnline:

Unfortunately with Chubb’s questionable availability for Week 1, sportsbooks have not offered his rushing yards or rushing touchdown lines. However, once his lines open I feel both will be undervalued and will look to take the over once we have a better idea of how many games he could play. He has averaged 1,268 rushing yards in his 5 full NFL seasons and 9.6 touchdowns. Getting a rushing line under 1,200 and a touchdown line at 7.5 or even 8.5 will be very enticing.

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