NFL 2024 Fantasy Draft Primer & How to Bet It: Wide Receivers

Last week we broke down the best wide receivers in the first four rounds of fantasy football drafts. And before that we broke down the running backs. If you haven’t read each part of that series what are you doing? Today we will select one receiver from rounds 5-7 and discuss their NFL fantasy value.

This is an ongoing series to highlight players who REEK of value in NFL fantasy drafts. We aren’t talking about McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the 1st round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that I’ll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BETONLINE.

So without further ado, let’s kick it off with NFL fantasy football 2024 top 3 value picks: the wide receivers. It’s mock draft season baby!!!

1. Wide Receiver Value Round Five: Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals is on a contact year

Recency bias is a real thing in NFL fantasy football. It’s the ultimate game of “what have you done for me lately” as players values shift season after season. And recency bias doesn’t care if a player didn’t produce because them and/or their starting QB was injured for the majority of the season. If a player didn’t live up to their ADP you better believe the next year they will get knocked down draft board. Tee Higgins is the perfect storm, because he only played 12 games last season and starting QB only played 10, knocking him down to WR51. But this year he will be playing for a new contract with a healthy Burrow, which makes him a valuable NFL fantasy gem.

Higgins has consistently shown his ability to be a reliable and productive wide receiver. He’s a big, physical target with good hands. He has two 1,000 receiving yards seasons under his belt and put up over 900 in his rookie season. He has 6+ touchdowns in his three of his four season, and despite only playing 10 games last year still managed to grab 5 TD’s. At a relatively young age, Higgins still has room for improvement and could continue to elevate his game, especially playing for a new contract.

There are few wide receivers I will be looking to grab in round 5. There are loads of value in the running back position here. Unlike Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper, Higgins isn’t on the wrong side of 30. And unlike Zay Flowers and George Pickins, Higgins plays on a top, high flying offense that he has proven to produce in. All of this adds up to Higgins being my favorite value pick at round 5 for NFL fantasy.

Tee Higgins o5.5 touch downs for -142 on BetOnline:

I don’t love the price, but this borderline feels like a lock (nothing is, but this feels damn close). Higgins has 6 or more touchdowns in three of the four seasons he played, and managed to get 5 last season despite only playing 58% of the season. Higgins will be extremely motivated this season to pump up his value for his next contract. Oh yeah, and top running back Joe Mixon is now on Houston which means there will be more touchdowns to be handed out.

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2. NFL Fantasy Round Six Value Wide Receiver: Jayden Reed

The Packers entire offense could improve and Reed will be a beneficiary of that

Don’t look now but last season’s WR25 can be had in round six, and no one is talking about him. The Green Bay Packers offense is a bit of a question mark. Jordon Love took a monstrous step last season, proving the Green Bay is the ultimate QB factory. And obviously every receiver ate because of it.

It’s still a bit murky of who exactly is the top dog in Green Bay. All of christian Watson and Romeo Doubs could end up being the alpha, but I’ll still take my chances on Reed. Reed exceeded expectations in his first year, leading the Packers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He’s a versatile player who can contribute as a receiver, runner, and return specialist.

Reed feels like the perfect flex roster spot pick up this late in the draft. He could easily become your second best WR, but will more likely be an every week starter that consistently puts up numbers. While he did have 8 touch downs last season, he also only had 793 receiving yards. Quaterback Love also took several weeks until he became a top QB in the league. Even if Reed’s touchdowns regress, his receiving yards should increase to help balance this. This much value in the WR spot should not be easy to find in round six of NFL fantasy drafts.

Jordan Love o27.5 touch downs for +104 on BetOnline:

While this isn’t exactly a Reed prop, it does correlate to Reed’s success. If quarterback Love can repeat his top 5 quarter back performance, he will need to throw buckets of TD’s. Last season he threw 32 bombs, so this prop gives a good amount of wiggle room for regression. Love is coming off a huge contract extension so the pressure is on and I find it hard to believe that he puts up 4 less touch downs than last season.

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3. Value Wide Receiver NFL Fantasy Round Seven: Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley should be the Titans top receiver.

Believe it or not, Calvin Ridley was a top 20 wide receiver last season. He was the 18th best wide out in PPR formats with over 1,000 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Now he makes the move to Tennessee Titans where he could become a target hog on a revamped offense that wants to throw the ball.

Before his suspension, Ridley established himself as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. In the 2020 season, he had 90 receptions for 1,374 yards and 9 touchdowns, proving he can be a WR1 in fantasy. Ridley is known for his exceptional route-running skills, which helps him create separation and be a reliable target for his quarterback.

Now speaking of that quaterback… The only reason you are able to draft Ridley this late is due to the unknowns at the QB position for the Titans. Will Levis flashed some skill last season, but this is not a QB on the same level as even a mid-round talent like Dak Prescott. But the Titans are doing the right to the young gun slinger by providing him talented weapons and a coach who wants to see Levis use them. Ridley’s talent is all about precise route running and hands, which means all Levis needs to do is throw the ball where he expects Ridley to be. The perfect complement for a developing QB.

I’m all about finding value late in draft, and Calvin Ridley may be the best mid-round WR you can find in your NFL fantasy drafts.

Calvin Ridley o4.5 touchdowns for -125 on BetOnline:

Someone will need to score on the Titans. And Ridley has CRUSHED this line in every season besides his 5 game season in 2021. He has averaged 8.5 touchdowns in four seasons (excluding 2021). Even if Levis isn’t the answer, Ridley has been an elite talent in this league and should be able to amass some garbage time TD’s. I trust this line much more than his receiving yards.

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