Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (7/11)

Today at Camden Yards, the Baltimore Orioles host the Chicago Cubs, two teams in starkly contrasting situations. The Cubs began the MLB season fairly well, but have since found themselves at the bottom of the NL Central, trailing the division-leading Brewers by 10 games. On a positive note, they have managed to secure victories in their last three games.

The Orioles are comfortably leading the AL East by 2 games over the Yankees. Despite having lost two consecutive games to the Cubs, they are poised for a comeback at home today, potentially extending their lead over New York. However, the task may be somewhat challenging as the Cubs are fielding their star left-handed pitcher, Justin Steele, who has the potential to complete a series sweep today.

Is he capable of steering the Cubs to this unexpected road victory? Alternatively, can Baltimore prevent a sweep by securing a home win tonight?

Justin Steele Starts for the Cubs Today in Camden Yards

Matchup Information – Cubs vs Orioles

• Location and Venue: Camden Yards (Baltimore, MD)
• Date: Thursday, July 11th, 2024
• First Pitch: 6:35pm Eastern

Pitching Matchup

• Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele (1-3, 2.95 ERA)
• Baltimore Orioles: Albert Suarez (5-2, 2.48 ERA)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Run Line

• Cubs +1.5 (-172)
• Orioles -1.5 (+152)

Money Line

• Cubs +124
• Orioles -135

Total

• Over 8.5 (-120)
• Under 8.5 (+100)

Can Orioles Avoid the Home Sweep?

Justin Steele vs Orioles Bats

Justin Steele began the season on the back of an injury and had his share of tough games. However, he has since regained his form. He recently celebrated his first season victory, where he pitched the entire 9 innings, conceding only 1 run from 2 hits and 2 walks. This performance, though, was on his home ground. In his last two starts on the road, Steele allowed 5 runs from 13 hits in 13.1 innings. He also gave up 2 home runs and a walk, but his road statistics show a slight improvement.

However, he continues to confront the Baltimore hitters who have a fondness for lefties.

The Orioles, as a team, have an overall batting average of .255, .257 at Camden Yards this year, and .264 against left-handed pitchers, ranking them 5th in the league. Their batting average increased to .273 in June, but decreased slightly to .254 in July. With the Yankees close behind them, the Orioles need to step up their game. Individually, Adley Rutschman’s average against left-handed pitchers jumped from .284 to .389, and Ryan Mountcastle’s from .272 to .313. Jordan Westburg also saw his numbers increase from .280 to .325 when playing at Camden Yards.

In other words, the splits seem to favor the Orioles from my perspective. However, let’s shift our attention to their pitcher.

Albert Suarez vs Cubs Bats

Albert Suarez is set to start at home for the Orioles today. He has shown consistent performance all year. Suarez boasts a 5-2 record with a sub 2.50 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, and he has secured victories in his last two games. In his previous two starts, Suarez has successfully pitched 12 innings, conceding only 2 runs from 7 hits and one walk. Both runs were solo home runs, unfortunately. Nonetheless, since he started coming out of the bullpen, the Orioles have not suffered a loss in any game he started at Camden Yards. I don’t anticipate that trend to change tonight.

This year, Suarez boasts a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings pitched at home, along with a 1.00 WHIP. The Cubs maintain a .231 average in away games, which only marginally reduces to .230 against RHP. However, with their 19-28 record on the road and coming off two consecutive wins, I’m inclined to favor the home team.

The Orioles have suffered two sweeps, both of which happened away from home. Conversely, they have successfully dodged a sweep in the last game of a home series thrice. I believe they have the potential to replicate this feat tonight.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Best Bets

Best Bet: Orioles ML (-132) BetOnline

The Orioles currently lead the Yankees by two games in the AL East. This year, they’ve yet to lose three consecutive home games. They’ve lost two in a row four times, but each time, they’ve quickly rebounded with a win in the next game. I anticipate a similar outcome tonight. Suarez’s home performance is too impressive to overlook, plus the Orioles team excels against left-handed pitchers. Even though these batters and pitchers haven’t had much interaction throughout their careers, Baltimore’s .786 OPS against LHP is convincing enough for me.

I believe that the home team, despite losing two consecutive games, will bounce back and score some runs tonight.

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