By the Numbers: MLS Best Bets (6/1)
Hockey is winding down and the footy is in full swing with MLS. The model is cooking and our best bets for today feature both teams to score bets in four separate matches. They are the best bets, and we’ve got got some projected correct score and results bets, too. The Champions League Final kicks the day off in style, you won’t want to miss it.
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Goals, Goals, Goals
Inter Miami/Saint Louis: Both Teams To Score (-185)
Do you enjoy watching Lionel Messi play? Us, too. Inter Miami are the strongest team in MLS because of their Barcelona strength: Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets. Given their confidence in being able to outscore opponents, Miami isn’t worried about giving up goals. When you are averaging more than two goals per match and conceding more than one goal per match, this is a pretty solid bet. The model predicts a score of 2.3-1.3 in favor of Miami. It is a clash of styles as Miami plays a high event style, while Saint Louis plays a very low event, possession style. Messi and Suarez are expected to play and give Saint Louis all they can handle. If the -185 is too juicy, parlay it with over 2.5 goals for -130 or with a Messi anytime goal for +138. I expect Miami to play their stars for a minimum of 60 minutes tonight in what is scheduled to be Messi’s last MLS match before the Copa America gets underway.
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Philadelphia Union/CF Montreal: Both Teams To Score (-150)
Montreal has conceded the second most goals in the league this season. However, they’ve managed to find their creative touch over the last few weeks. Their expected goals is in line with their actual goals and their team is starting to gel in the attacking third. Philadelphia hasn’t conceded a goal in three straight matches and is due for some regression. They defend well, but not to the level where they have not conceded in nearly 300 minutes of play. Two straight scoreless draws makes this a risky bet. However, the model sees both teams to put the ball in the back of the net today and play to a 1-1 draw. I lean towards a 2-1 Philadelphia victory, and agree that both teams are due to find the back of the net in tonight’s match.
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Vancouver Whitecaps/Colorado Rapids: Both Teams To Score (-185)
This is expected to be the highest scoring match of the day, which is not entirely unexpected. Vancouver has scored in all but three of their MLS matches this season, averaging nearly 1.5 goals per match. They conceded at least one goal in all but three of their MLS matches, and 2+ goals in 5 of those matches. Colorado is tied with Vancouver in the standings on 22 points, making for a great matchup. Colorado has notched at least one goal in every match but one this season. Defensively, they’ve conceded the fourth most goals in MLS. Vancouver has offensive weapons with Ryan Gauld and Brian White, while Colorado has Rafael Navarro who is tied with Lionel Messi for the 4th most shots on target in MLS, this season. There are lots of goals to be had as neither team is strong defensively. The result prediction sees a draw at +290 with value, or Both Teams to Score with Vancouver to Win/Draw at -115.
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LAFC/FC Dallas: Both Teams to Score (-105)
LAFC is the most in-form team in MLS right now with four straight victories. They have conceded zero goals in those victories. That streak of time without a goal conceded can get to a team and Dallas has scored in seven straight matches. The model gives Dallas a 52% chance to score and LAFC a 86% to score. The combination of model belief, potential for complacency and Dallas’ scoring form leads me to believe both teams will find the back of the net. Dallas has shown they can score against good defensive teams like Houston and Salt Lake. This should be smooth sailing for LAFC in a 2 or 3-1 victory. If you don’t trust Dallas to score, take the correct score bet of LAFC to win to nil at +105.
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