Which NFL players will improve in 2024? Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young among nine locks to rise

Lawrence’s career so far has seen its share of highs and lows. However, the positive takeaway is that his 2023 setback was nowhere near as severe as his initial struggles in his 2021 rookie year. It seems that Lawrence has managed to achieve a certain degree of proficiency, despite the difficulties faced in the previous season.

I suspect the primary issues were physical ones. Lawrence missed his initial NFL start last season in Week 17 due to a shoulder injury. Before that, he had an ankle injury in Week 13. Both injuries seemed to impede his progress.

Up to Week 13, Lawrence had a completion rate of 67.9% with 14 touchdowns (TDs) and seven interceptions, as well as four rushing touchdowns and four fumbles. This was consistent with his performance in 2022. However, during the last four games of the season, his performance dipped with a 60% completion rate, seven touchdowns, seven interceptions, and three lost fumbles. This decline coincided with the Jaguars’ elimination from the playoff contention.

Jacksonville’s pass protection, especially on the left side, hurt Lawrence. Left tackle Cam Robinson was suspended for the first four games of last season and later missed time with a knee injury. His replacement, Walker Little, was good early but struggled late. Left guard also was a group effort, with three different starters struggling at various points. Center was a problem, too. Most of the faces at the first two positions remain the same, but the Jaguars feel they upgraded at center with Mitch Morse coming from Buffalo. They’ve also added former Bills receiver Gabe Davis to give Lawrence a deep threat on the outside. Is Davis better than Calvin Ridley, who left for Tennessee in free agency? No, but he and first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. should give Lawrence plenty of downfield-shot potential.

Last season, the Jaguars contended with several leading defenses and are projected to encounter a somewhat less challenging set of teams this season, which should be beneficial. While it’s not ideal to make excuses for Lawrence following a somewhat below-par performance, there were valid reasons for it. With his 25th birthday season on the horizon, coupled with more robust support and a potentially less demanding schedule, Lawrence is expected to return to the upward trajectory he was on before the previous season.

The silver lining for Young is that he can only move up from here. His challenging debut season as a quarterback was marred by inadequate pass protection, minimal receiver talent, and a shortage of explosive pass plays.

The top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft started 16 of 17 games, but failed to reach 200 yards passing in 11 of them. He also threw for one or no TD passes in 14 of his 16 starts. In the one start Young missed, backup Andy Dalton threw for 361 yards and two scores.

Enter new head coach Dave Canales, who was hired with Young very much in mind. I thought Canales first did a really good job coaching Russell Wilson during his time with the Seahawks, later coaxing great seasons out of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield when their careers were at crossroads in Seattle and Tampa. Those are different styles of quarterback Canales has worked with, but each saw gains when the coach was watching over them.

The Panthers also upgraded the offensive personnel this offseason, signing two premier offensive guards, trading for wide receiver Diontae Johnson and drafting WR Xavier Legette and RB Jonathon Brooks. This is by no means an upper-echelon team in terms of offensive talent, but it appears to be a better group than what Young had last season. That will help, but Young also knows he needs to step up.

Young wasn’t a total failure as a rookie, boasting an interception rate of 1.9 percent and turning into a respectable scrambler, something he didn’t do a lot of at Alabama. But what he did do there was win, going 23-4 at the highest level of competition in college football. Young’s winning pedigree dates back to high school, too, which makes me think he’ll find a way to become a quality NFL starter eventually. It might not happen immediately, but I would be shocked if he’s not at least marginally better in Year 2.

Alex Smith, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford are three former No. 1 overall picks who struggled mightily as rookies but went on to have successful careers. I suspect Young’s best hope to make it in the league will be as a Smith-like performer, picking away at the cracks in opposing defenses and keeping the turnovers low.

Following several challenging years, it’s entirely plausible that we have already witnessed Dobbins’ peak performance. Knee injuries obliterated his 2021 season and prematurely terminated his 2022 campaign. His 2023 season was cut short after less than one complete game due to an Achilles injury. In recent history, few players have been as besieged by injuries as Dobbins has been over the past few seasons.

But it says here that Dobbins isn’t done yet. I completely get why the Ravens had to move on, but there wasn’t a better place for him to land, joining Jim Harbaugh and old friends Greg Roman and Gus Edwards to form a West Coast version of the Baltimore offense that made Dobbins look like a star previously.

In Harbaugh’s offense, he has the potential to be the lightning to Edwards’ thunder. If this system is anything like the one that recently led Michigan to a national championship, it won’t hesitate to utilize its running game. Of course, concerns about injuries cannot be ignored. However, Dobbins is yet to turn 26. I’m wagering on him having at least one more impactful NFL season.

Dobbins has averaged 5.8 yards per rush in his career. He’s never been a big volume guy, having logged one career game with more than 15 carries, but Dobbins can make the most out of a shared role with Edwards and rookie Kimani Vidal. Dobbins has downplayed the severity of his Achilles injury and proclaimed himself “100 percent” healthy. He’ll be running behind an offensive line that features three recent first-round picks and should be among the better groups in the NFL.

Watson had an unusual season last year, having been bogged down by hamstring injuries in his initial two years in the NFL. The 2023 season was particularly exasperating, with Watson absent from the first three and last five regular season games. Although he made a comeback for the playoffs, he only managed to catch one pass in each game, playing approximately half the offensive snaps in both.

Watson believes he’s identified the root of his past hamstring troubles: leg strength symmetry, or a lack thereof. As it turns out, Watson visited hamstring specialists at the University of Wisconsin and found out that his right leg — the one giving him most of his trouble — was roughly 20 percent less developed than his left one. So far, the results appear to be pleasing Watson.

The receiver started coming on last season just about the time that Jordan Love did, catching four TDs in a three-game span from Weeks 11 through 13. Then Watson got hurt again. Had he stayed healthy, who knows what might have happened? As it was, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton stepped up their production in pretty balanced fashion with Watson sidelined.

It’s undeniable that Green Bay’s youthful squad of receivers, with their abundant talent, is the pride of the NFL. This could potentially restrict Watson’s ability to shine as the main receiver, potentially sharing this role with Reed. However, Watson was considered the primary target before the last season started, and it is not yet time to dismiss this – particularly if his hamstring problems have been addressed.

As the highest-drafted tight end in the Super Bowl era (fourth overall), Pitts faced immense pressure to produce when he entered the NFL in 2021. All he did was post the league’s second 1,000-yard season by a rookie tight end, doing so while turning 21 years old midway through the campaign.

In the two seasons since then, Pitts has combined for three fewer receiving yards than he had as a rookie, totaling 1,023 yards and five scores on 81 catches over his past 27 games. A lot of that can be blamed on poor quarterbacking and curious offensive usage, with Jonnu Smith stealing a lot of touches. Injuries also took their toll, with a lingering knee issue limiting Pitts’ effectiveness.

Assuming Pitts is in good health, he has the opportunity to have his most successful season yet.

With Kirk Cousins on board, Pitts should see plenty of targets. Cousins thrived with athletic, field-stretching tight ends in Washington (Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed) and Minnesota (T.J. Hockenson). Justin Jefferson was Cousins’ main target during his Vikings tenure, but the QB was starting to build a great rapport with Hockenson before Cousins got hurt last year. In 18 games with Cousins, Hockenson — as the No. 2 and sometimes No. 3 target — caught 111 passes for 974 yards, six TDs and a two-point conversion. Hockenson’s totals are greater than the ones Pitts amassed over the same span with the likes of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke throwing him passes.

New Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes from the Rams, where the wide receivers were featured more in the passing game. But Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee were both consistent producers in that system, occasionally shining with big performances. In Atlanta, WR Drake London is really the main competition for workload in the passing game. London surely deserves his 8-10 touches per game, but so does Pitts.

The tight end position is widely known to be a slower-developing role, even for physically gifted players like Pitts. The third or fourth year is typically the time for a breakout performance. Given the enhanced support from a stronger team and new coaches in Atlanta, I would be surprised if Pitts doesn’t show significant improvement in the upcoming season.

It was by no means a bad year for Brown in his Bengals debut in 2023. But a confluence of events led to a less-effective season than I’ve come to expect from the four-time Pro Bowler.

First, Joe Burrow was hurt in training camp, starting the year shakily before a different injury ended his season in Week 11. That thrust Jake Browning into the starting lineup, and as admirably as he threw the ball last season, there were protection issues on his watch. Browning was sacked at the NFL’s eighth-highest rate, with Burrow coming in at No. 20. Part of this can be blamed on Browning holding onto the ball longer; he averaged 2.73 seconds to throw, with Burrow far quicker at 2.54, per Next Gen Stats.

The Bengals signed Brown as their left tackle, and the assumption was that he would upgrade the blocking for them just as he had previously for the Ravens and Chiefs. The problem was that Jonah Williams was being shifted from left to right tackle, a position Williams hadn’t played since 2016, when he was a freshman at Alabama. The results weren’t great, and the Bengals often felt the need to slant protection toward Williams — and away from Brown.

This offseason, Williams departed in free agency while Cincinnati signed veteran Trent Brown and drafted first-rounder Amarius Mims, giving them better talent and depth at tackle. And with Burrow back, the pass protection figures to be in a better place.

Interesting developments are underway in Washington following another franchise reset. The new General Manager, Adam Peters, had an impressive offseason. He subtly implemented substantial changes by recruiting a number of competitive, ambitious veterans and potentially generating a commendable draft class. This could even improve the team’s talent instantly.

Defensively, there are still a lot of questions that need answering. There’s a new scheme, a handful of new starters and worries in the back end and off the edge. But defensive tackle should remain an unquestioned strength with Payne and Jonathan Allen back, along with the addition of early second-rounder Jer’Zhan Newton. It also doesn’t hurt that both the division-rival Eagles and Cowboys are breaking in new starters at center, having to replace long-term starters.

Payne didn’t have a poor season in 2023, mind you, but it was clear how much tougher life was for him and Allen after Montez Sweat and Chase Young both were traded on one franchise-changing day last Halloween. Even after that point, Payne showed what he could do, collecting three of his four sacks, including two in a late-season loss to the Rams.

Dan Quinn is known for his skills as a former DL coach, particularly in generating pressure with his fronts. His teams, like the Cowboys, have been known to attack from every angle in recent years. It is anticipated that Quinn’s Commanders will follow a similar strategy, although they may have less talent. The team’s pass rush may require a collaborative effort, less reliant on star players as was the case with Quinn in Dallas or with Sweat and Young in Washington. Nonetheless, the lesser-known edge rushers that Washington acquired in the off-season shouldn’t be underestimated.

Payne has a lot on the line in 2024. He’s playing on a salary-cap number of more than $21 million this season, and that figure rises to more than $26 million and $28 million, respectively, over the next two years. Even with Jayden Daniels’ rookie-QB salary helping accounting matters out significantly, Payne and Allen might be playing for their jobs in Washington.

Payne, who is two years Allen’s junior and only a season removed from a Pro Bowl campaign with 11.5 sacks, may have a better opportunity to excel in 2024. He could also continue to be a crucial component of Washington’s defense in the future.

Last season, despite the challenges, Burns performed relatively well. His final year with Carolina was indeed difficult. Not only was he still waiting for his much-anticipated salary increase, but an elbow injury also restricted him to play exclusively on the field’s left side for a significant part of the season. Moreover, throughout the season, he had no real pass-rush threat opposite him on a team that seldom led in games. In fact, the Panthers never had a lead in the fourth quarter throughout the season, securing their two wins through last-minute field goals.

The result was that Burns’ sacks and pressure rate were both down from the previous two seasons, even though his performance hadn’t dropped off considerably. But now that Burns has been paid by the Giants, operating on a line featuring Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux, the hope is that the 26-year-old can make his sixth season the best of his career.

Heading into the 2024 season, the Giants face queries about their offense, as well as uncertainties in their secondary. It’s a challenging task for new coordinator Shane Bowen, who must decisively mobilize the pass rush to ensure the team’s effectiveness. These conditions should however, favor Burns and set him up for an even more successful season in 2024.

The Lions’ 2023 rookie class was a banner group, with Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta carving out critical roles on offense and Campbell and Brian Branch doing the same on defense. All four delivered, with LaPorta and Gibbs finishing third and fourth, respectively, in the Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting and Branch and Campbell coming in fifth and eighth, respectively, in the Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.

Nevertheless, Campbell also faced his own set of challenges. Despite a promising start against the Chiefs, he struggled with coverage. The Lions attempted to use him as a blitzer to initiate the pass rush, but Campbell had difficulty producing significant pressure. Moreover, there were games where missed tackles became a problem for him, a struggle he rarely experienced during his college career.

But Campbell wore the green helmet sticker as the team’s defensive play-caller when Alex Anzalone was injured and was tasked with a lot more than your typical rookie linebacker. Becoming the cerebral center for a defense on a team that carried itself like a world beater last season was no easy task. And Campbell was more good than bad, even while looking stressed and overloaded at times.

I expect less of the panicky, jittery Campbell we saw at times in his rookie season and more of the fire-branded field general he was at Iowa. Another year in the Lions’ system under Aaron Glenn should help, as should more help in the secondary with the additions of Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, Amik Robertson, Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and others.

Campbell has received ample praise from the Lions this offseason, suggesting that he may have a standout Year 2.