Which NFL players will improve in 2024? Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young among nine locks to rise

Lawrence’s path has been somewhat inconsistent so far, but the silver lining is that his regression in 2023 was nowhere near as severe as the difficulties he faced in his rookie year in 2021. It seems as though Lawrence has set some level of basic proficiency, despite last season’s hurdles.

I suspect that the most significant problems were physical. Lawrence was absent from his first NFL start in the last season during Week 17 due to a shoulder injury. Before this, he had an ankle injury in Week 13. Both injuries seemed to impede his development.

Up to Week 13, Lawrence had managed to complete 67.9 percent of his passes, resulting in 14 TDs and seven interceptions. He also contributed four rushing touchdowns and had four fumbles. These statistics were consistent with his performance in 2022. However, in the last four games of the season, his completion rate dropped to just 60 percent, with seven touchdowns, seven interceptions, and three lost fumbles. This decline coincided with the Jaguars’ elimination from the playoff contention.

Jacksonville’s pass protection, especially on the left side, hurt Lawrence. Left tackle Cam Robinson was suspended for the first four games of last season and later missed time with a knee injury. His replacement, Walker Little, was good early but struggled late. Left guard also was a group effort, with three different starters struggling at various points. Center was a problem, too. Most of the faces at the first two positions remain the same, but the Jaguars feel they upgraded at center with Mitch Morse coming from Buffalo. They’ve also added former Bills receiver Gabe Davis to give Lawrence a deep threat on the outside. Is Davis better than Calvin Ridley, who left for Tennessee in free agency? No, but he and first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. should give Lawrence plenty of downfield-shot potential.

The Jaguars faced several strong defenses last season, but this season they seem likely to play against slightly less challenging teams, which should be beneficial. While it’s not ideal to make excuses for Lawrence following a somewhat underwhelming performance, there were some concrete reasons behind it. Now at 25, with stronger support and a potentially less grueling schedule, Lawrence is expected to revert back to his previous upward trajectory before last season.

The silver lining for Young is that there’s only one direction to head: upwards. His challenging debut season as a quarterback was hampered by inadequate pass protection, scant receiving talent, and a scarcity of explosive pass plays.

The top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft started 16 of 17 games, but failed to reach 200 yards passing in 11 of them. He also threw for one or no TD passes in 14 of his 16 starts. In the one start Young missed, backup Andy Dalton threw for 361 yards and two scores.

Enter new head coach Dave Canales, who was hired with Young very much in mind. I thought Canales first did a really good job coaching Russell Wilson during his time with the Seahawks, later coaxing great seasons out of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield when their careers were at crossroads in Seattle and Tampa. Those are different styles of quarterback Canales has worked with, but each saw gains when the coach was watching over them.

The Panthers also upgraded the offensive personnel this offseason, signing two premier offensive guards, trading for wide receiver Diontae Johnson and drafting WR Xavier Legette and RB Jonathon Brooks. This is by no means an upper-echelon team in terms of offensive talent, but it appears to be a better group than what Young had last season. That will help, but Young also knows he needs to step up.

Young wasn’t a total failure as a rookie, boasting an interception rate of 1.9 percent and turning into a respectable scrambler, something he didn’t do a lot of at Alabama. But what he did do there was win, going 23-4 at the highest level of competition in college football. Young’s winning pedigree dates back to high school, too, which makes me think he’ll find a way to become a quality NFL starter eventually. It might not happen immediately, but I would be shocked if he’s not at least marginally better in Year 2.

Alex Smith, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford are three former No. 1 overall picks who struggled mightily as rookies but went on to have successful careers. I suspect Young’s best hope to make it in the league will be as a Smith-like performer, picking away at the cracks in opposing defenses and keeping the turnovers low.

Dobbins has undergone a challenging few years, and it’s entirely plausible that his best performances are behind him. His 2021 season was eradicated by knee injuries, which also curtailed his 2022 season. An Achilles injury halted his 2023 campaign after barely one full match. In recent history, few players have been as consistently besieged by injuries as Dobbins in the last few seasons.

But it says here that Dobbins isn’t done yet. I completely get why the Ravens had to move on, but there wasn’t a better place for him to land, joining Jim Harbaugh and old friends Greg Roman and Gus Edwards to form a West Coast version of the Baltimore offense that made Dobbins look like a star previously.

In Harbaugh’s offense, he could potentially be the lightning to Edwards’ thunder. If this system is akin to the one that recently secured a national title for Michigan, it won’t hesitate to utilize running the football. Of course, the injury concern is a factor that cannot be dismissed. However, Dobbins is still under 26 years old and I predict at least one more successful NFL season from him.

Dobbins has averaged 5.8 yards per rush in his career. He’s never been a big volume guy, having logged one career game with more than 15 carries, but Dobbins can make the most out of a shared role with Edwards and rookie Kimani Vidal. Dobbins has downplayed the severity of his Achilles injury and proclaimed himself “100 percent” healthy. He’ll be running behind an offensive line that features three recent first-round picks and should be among the better groups in the NFL.

Watson had an unusual season last time, having struggled with hamstring injuries in his initial two years in the NFL. The 2023 season was particularly vexing, as Watson was out for the first three and the last five regular season games. Although he came back for the playoffs, he only managed to catch a single pass in each game, participating in about half of the offensive snaps in both games.

Watson believes he’s identified the root of his past hamstring troubles: leg strength symmetry, or a lack thereof. As it turns out, Watson visited hamstring specialists at the University of Wisconsin and found out that his right leg — the one giving him most of his trouble — was roughly 20 percent less developed than his left one. So far, the results appear to be pleasing Watson.

The receiver started coming on last season just about the time that Jordan Love did, catching four TDs in a three-game span from Weeks 11 through 13. Then Watson got hurt again. Had he stayed healthy, who knows what might have happened? As it was, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton stepped up their production in pretty balanced fashion with Watson sidelined.

The young corps of receivers in Green Bay is undeniably the envy of the NFL, boasting plentiful offensive capabilities. This could potentially limit Watson’s star power as he’s considered the group’s quasi-WR1, possibly sharing this distinction with Reed. However, Watson was the perceived primary target going into the previous season, and it’s premature to disregard that, especially if his hamstring problems have been properly addressed.

As the highest-drafted tight end in the Super Bowl era (fourth overall), Pitts faced immense pressure to produce when he entered the NFL in 2021. All he did was post the league’s second 1,000-yard season by a rookie tight end, doing so while turning 21 years old midway through the campaign.

In the two seasons since then, Pitts has combined for three fewer receiving yards than he had as a rookie, totaling 1,023 yards and five scores on 81 catches over his past 27 games. A lot of that can be blamed on poor quarterbacking and curious offensive usage, with Jonnu Smith stealing a lot of touches. Injuries also took their toll, with a lingering knee issue limiting Pitts’ effectiveness.

If Pitts is healthy, he has the opportunity to potentially have his most successful season so far.

With Kirk Cousins on board, Pitts should see plenty of targets. Cousins thrived with athletic, field-stretching tight ends in Washington (Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed) and Minnesota (T.J. Hockenson). Justin Jefferson was Cousins’ main target during his Vikings tenure, but the QB was starting to build a great rapport with Hockenson before Cousins got hurt last year. In 18 games with Cousins, Hockenson — as the No. 2 and sometimes No. 3 target — caught 111 passes for 974 yards, six TDs and a two-point conversion. Hockenson’s totals are greater than the ones Pitts amassed over the same span with the likes of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke throwing him passes.

New Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes from the Rams, where the wide receivers were featured more in the passing game. But Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee were both consistent producers in that system, occasionally shining with big performances. In Atlanta, WR Drake London is really the main competition for workload in the passing game. London surely deserves his 8-10 touches per game, but so does Pitts.

The tight end position is widely known to take longer to develop, even for physically exceptional players like Pitts. It’s common for a breakout to occur around the third or fourth year. Given the enhanced team and new coaching staff in Atlanta, I would be surprised if Pitts doesn’t show significant improvement in the upcoming season.

It was by no means a bad year for Brown in his Bengals debut in 2023. But a confluence of events led to a less-effective season than I’ve come to expect from the four-time Pro Bowler.

First, Joe Burrow was hurt in training camp, starting the year shakily before a different injury ended his season in Week 11. That thrust Jake Browning into the starting lineup, and as admirably as he threw the ball last season, there were protection issues on his watch. Browning was sacked at the NFL’s eighth-highest rate, with Burrow coming in at No. 20. Part of this can be blamed on Browning holding onto the ball longer; he averaged 2.73 seconds to throw, with Burrow far quicker at 2.54, per Next Gen Stats.

The Bengals signed Brown as their left tackle, and the assumption was that he would upgrade the blocking for them just as he had previously for the Ravens and Chiefs. The problem was that Jonah Williams was being shifted from left to right tackle, a position Williams hadn’t played since 2016, when he was a freshman at Alabama. The results weren’t great, and the Bengals often felt the need to slant protection toward Williams — and away from Brown.

This offseason, Williams departed in free agency while Cincinnati signed veteran Trent Brown and drafted first-rounder Amarius Mims, giving them better talent and depth at tackle. And with Burrow back, the pass protection figures to be in a better place.

An intriguing development is unfolding in Washington following yet another franchise reset. New General Manager, Adam Peters, has had an impactful offseason, subtly implementing broad changes by recruiting a host of competitive, eager veterans. Additionally, his potential draft class appears quite promising, possibly even capable of enhancing the team’s talent right away.

Defensively, there are still a lot of questions that need answering. There’s a new scheme, a handful of new starters and worries in the back end and off the edge. But defensive tackle should remain an unquestioned strength with Payne and Jonathan Allen back, along with the addition of early second-rounder Jer’Zhan Newton. It also doesn’t hurt that both the division-rival Eagles and Cowboys are breaking in new starters at center, having to replace long-term starters.

Payne didn’t have a poor season in 2023, mind you, but it was clear how much tougher life was for him and Allen after Montez Sweat and Chase Young both were traded on one franchise-changing day last Halloween. Even after that point, Payne showed what he could do, collecting three of his four sacks, including two in a late-season loss to the Rams.

Former DL coach, Dan Quinn, is well-versed in generating pressure with his fronts. The Cowboys have been aggressive from all perspectives in recent years, and I anticipate Quinn’s Commanders to adopt a similar approach, despite their less talented lineup. The pass rush may necessitate a collective effort and not be as star-centric as it was for Quinn in Dallas or with Sweat and Young earlier in Washington. However, one should not underestimate the lesser-known edge rushers that Washington has recruited this offseason.

Payne has a lot on the line in 2024. He’s playing on a salary-cap number of more than $21 million this season, and that figure rises to more than $26 million and $28 million, respectively, over the next two years. Even with Jayden Daniels’ rookie-QB salary helping accounting matters out significantly, Payne and Allen might be playing for their jobs in Washington.

Being two years younger than Allen and just one season away from a Pro Bowl campaign where he achieved 11.5 sacks, Payne could potentially have a brighter prospect to excel in 2024. He is likely to remain an important component of the Washington defense in the future.

Considering everything, Burns had an impressive performance in the last season, despite it being a challenging final year in Carolina. On top of waiting for his much-anticipated salary increase, he had to manage an elbow injury which limited him to playing solely on the left side of the field for a significant part of the season. This was further complicated by the fact that he had no genuine pass-rush threat on the opposite side throughout the season, on a team that seldom held the lead in games. The Panthers didn’t manage to hold a lead in the fourth quarter in any game during the season, both their victories were clinched through last-minute field goals.

The result was that Burns’ sacks and pressure rate were both down from the previous two seasons, even though his performance hadn’t dropped off considerably. But now that Burns has been paid by the Giants, operating on a line featuring Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux, the hope is that the 26-year-old can make his sixth season the best of his career.

Heading into the 2024 season, the Giants are faced with offensive uncertainties and issues within their secondary. The task ahead is certainly challenging for new coordinator, Shane Bowen. However, it is evident that the effectiveness of the team depends on his ability to ramp up the pass rush. This strategy could potentially lead to Burns having an even more successful season in 2024.

The Lions’ 2023 rookie class was a banner group, with Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta carving out critical roles on offense and Campbell and Brian Branch doing the same on defense. All four delivered, with LaPorta and Gibbs finishing third and fourth, respectively, in the Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting and Branch and Campbell coming in fifth and eighth, respectively, in the Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.

Despite his successes, Campbell also faced challenges. Following a promising start against the Chiefs, he encountered difficulties in coverage. As an attempt to boost the pass rush, the Lions tested him as a blitzer, but Campbell had a hard time creating substantial pressure. He also had matches where missing tackles became a problem, which was something he rarely struggled with during his college career.

But Campbell wore the green helmet sticker as the team’s defensive play-caller when Alex Anzalone was injured and was tasked with a lot more than your typical rookie linebacker. Becoming the cerebral center for a defense on a team that carried itself like a world beater last season was no easy task. And Campbell was more good than bad, even while looking stressed and overloaded at times.

I expect less of the panicky, jittery Campbell we saw at times in his rookie season and more of the fire-branded field general he was at Iowa. Another year in the Lions’ system under Aaron Glenn should help, as should more help in the secondary with the additions of Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, Amik Robertson, Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and others.

Campbell has received a lot of praise from the Lions this offseason, and I believe he’s poised for a breakout second year.