Weighing fifth-year options for 2021 NFL Draft's first-round selections: Who merits further commitment?

Exercise the option? Yes.

The Jaguars’ disappointing 2023 campaign shouldn’t take away from how the franchise feels about Lawrence in the big picture. After a disastrous 2021 season for everyone in Jacksonville, the former No. 1 overall pick has gotten back on track in his two years with Doug Pederson, eclipsing 4,000 yards and 20 touchdowns through the air in each. And with an epic playoff win to his name, Lawrence established himself as the future of the franchise at the position with his leadership and on-field play.

Exercise the option? No.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. It’s been quite the roller coaster for Wilson over the last three years. After winning three games as a rookie, Wilson was demoted during his second year as the starter after failing to perform on the field and putting his foot in his mouth off it. Then, in Year 3, he again struggled to take strides after being thrust back into the starting lineup following Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury. The Jets are expected to trade him this offseason, which could end up being the best thing for a young man in need of a fresh start. 

Exercise the option? No.

Original drafting team: San Francisco 49ers

It’s an easy decision for the Cowboys, who are Lance’s second team. After starting four games in his two seasons with San Francisco and ultimately losing the job to Brock Purdy, Lance was traded to Dallas. He didn’t play a single snap for the Cowboys in 2023, and there’s no telling when he’ll get another opportunity to see the field. 

Exercise the option? Yes.

Pitts is one of the best tight end prospects I have ever scouted. His production hasn’t been anywhere near his ability, but a lot of that falls on Arthur Smith’s inability to fully utilize the playmaker after Pitts’ 1,000-yard rookie campaign. With a new regime on the way, I expect Pitts to become a focal point of the offense, just like he was in Year 1.

Exercise the option? Yes.

This is a no-brainer. Chase established himself as a bona fide star from the jump, racking up nearly 1,500 receiving yards on the way to becoming the 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year. He has continued to be elite when healthy, with 1,000-plus receiving yards in each season, as well as 29 total touchdowns. 

Exercise the option? Yes.

Waddle, who always seems to be banged up in one way or another, has still been able to post 1,000-plus receiving yards in each of his first three seasons in Miami. The Dolphins need as many playmakers as possible in Mike McDaniel’s track-like offense. Waddle has been a stud opposite Tyreek Hill and has built quite the rapport with Tua Tagovailoa, whom Miami wants to keep around.

Exercise the option? Yes.

Earning a Pro Bowl nod in each of the last two seasons, Sewell has established himself as a crucial pillar in the Lions’ offense, a unit that has made strides each year with Sewell primarily manning the right tackle spot. He is one of the premier tackles in the game today, and it’s nice to see him getting recognized for it with a first-team All-Pro selection. 

Exercise the option? Yes.

Battling injuries during each of his three seasons in Carolina, Horn has played in just 22 total games. He had his best campaign in 2022, when he recorded seven passes defensed and three interceptions in 13 games. Horn spent a majority of this season injured, but was a solid contributor in the six games he did play for the Panthers’ third-ranked pass defense. The talent is there. He just has to stay healthy.

Exercise the option? Yes.

It was surprising to see Horn selected ahead of Surtain, who has been everything the Broncos envisioned he’d be when they snatched him up. He is arguably a top-five cornerback — one who routinely matches up against and shuts down opposing No. 1 receivers. With seven interceptions (one returned for a score) in his career, Surtain is a guy quarterbacks must be mindful of when dropping back to throw.

Exercise the option? Yes.

Smith has been overshadowed at times by A.J. Brown, but he’s arguably a No. 1 receiver in his own right. He’s proved that in each season — and did so again in the Eagles’ wild-card loss to the Bucs with eight receptions for 148 yards, the most in a single postseason game in franchise history. The 6-foot, 170-pounder is an ultra-talented and tough wideout who has racked up 3,178 career receiving yards and 19 touchdowns.

Exercise the option? No.

This is going to be a interesting offseason for Fields, whom I expect the Bears to trade away before selecting a new quarterback of the future with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Fields has shown his dominance as a runner — rushing for 2,220 yards and 14 TDs over three seasons, including 1,143 yards in 2022 — and improvement as a passer, but not enough to keep him in the Windy City. He’ll be the guy somewhere, and it’s likely that whichever team trades for Fields will work out a new contract with him.

Exercise the option? Yes.

In his three NFL seasons, Parsons has has made three Pro Bowls, earned first-team All-Pro honors twice and won the 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year award. He also has a good case to be this year’s Defensive Player of the Year. Dallas has a lot of difficult decisions to make this offseason, but picking up Parsons’ option before handing him the bag isn’t one of them.

Exercise the option? Yes.

A year removed from a season-ending biceps injury, a healthy Slater returned as one of the league’s top offensive tackles in 2023, allowing just three sacks on 762 pass-blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus. He was one of the bright spots in a disappointing Chargers season.

Exercise the option? Yes.

AVT has struggled to stay healthy, playing a combined 12 games over the last two seasons. The Jets should pick up his option because he is exactly the type of solid, versatile contributor teams want up front. Now he just needs a cleaner bill of health.

Exercise the option? No.

There were some who questioned this pick three years ago, and now everyone knows why. After a promising rookie campaign, Jones continued to prove he was not the guy. He was given numerous opportunities over the last two seasons but failed to solidify himself as New England’s QB1, often being benched for Bailey Zappe, a 2022 fourth-round pick.

Exercise the option? No.

Collins was billed as a versatile, do-it-all defender, but like Isaiah Simmons before him, he failed to regularly produce for the Cardinals. His best campaign was 2022, when he had 100 tackles, but Collins otherwise just hasn’t made enough big-time plays.

Exercise the option? No.

Original drafting team: Las Vegas Raiders

The most controversial first-round pick of the 2021 draft, Leatherwood was cut by the Raiders after his rookie season, picked up by the Chicago Bears (for whom he played four games in 2022) and spent 2023 on the Cleveland Browns’ practice squad. 

Exercise the option? Yes.

Phillips was solid in his first two campaigns, logging 15.5 sacks combined, and was enjoying his best year yet in 2023 (6.5 sacks in eight games) before tearing his Achilles in November. Prior to the injury, the disruptive playmaker proved himself to be a pillar in Vic Fangio’s defense. With a full recovery, Phillips should continue to shine in Miami.

Exercise the option? No.

I loved Davis coming out of Kentucky and thought he’d be a huge contributor behind a once-stacked Commanders defensive line. But that never came to fruition, and he is currently recovering from season-ending shoulder surgery. Plus, with Washington bringing in a new regime this offseason, the team is most likely to let Davis play out his fourth season before re-evaluating whether it wants to keep the former first-rounder for 2025 and beyond.

Exercise the option? No.

Original drafting team: New York Giants

Injuries limited Toney in New York, which traded him to Kansas City midway through his second season with the Giants. With the Chiefs, it’s been more of the same: inconsistent play and injuries. Toney’s 11 drops in 32 career games sum up the frustrations.

Exercise the option? Yes.

The Colts should pick this option up. Paye has improved each season, posting a career-high 8.5 sacks and two forced fumbles in 2023. The 6-foot-3, 265-pound defensive end is a solid building block who should continue to get better.

Exercise the option? No.

Farley was a risky pick because of his injury history in college. Three years into his pro career, the cornerback has played just 12 games and missed the entire 2023 campaign due to injury. And when Farley has played, he has struggled.

Exercise the option? Yes.

While Darrisaw has battled injuries in his three seasons, missing a total of 10 games, he has established himself as a premier tackle. I could see Minnesota wanting to get a long-term done this offseason.

Exercise the option? No.

Yes, Harris has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his three seasons with the Steelers, but it’s due to the sheer volume of carries he’s had. Harris, who is averaging 3.9 yards per carry in his career, is a workhorse who takes a ton of hits. Pittsburgh doesn’t often invest in running backs. This won’t be the exception.

Exercise the option? Yes.

After losing his rookie season to injury, Etienne has proven to be a big-play guy for the Jaguars, eclipsing 1,400 scrimmage yards in each of the last two seasons. He is a nice piece for Doug Pederson’s offense, and his familiarity with Trevor Lawrence from their Clemson days shows on the field.

Exercise the option? Yes.

Newsome has been a viable player for Jim Schwartz, and he’s shown enough talent and playmaking ability alongside Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson to merit Cleveland picking up his option.

Exercise the option? Yes.

This could go either way, to be honest, but I’ll say yes. Bateman has splashed at times, but hasn’t been the consistent No. 1 receiver Baltimore envisioned when it took him in the first round. However, with Zay Flowers in the building, there’s less pressure on Bateman, who has also struggled to stay healthy, to be The Guy. I’ve seen some positive things from Bateman this season, but he may need to make a good impression in the postseason before the final decision is made.

Exercise the option? No.

Three sacks in 15 games (zero starts) over three seasons? Turner has been one of the bigger disappointments of this group.

Exercise the option? Yes.

Stokes has performed well when available, but after playing in 16 games as a rookie, the defensive back has logged just 12 total games over the last two seasons. Stokes possesses the mentality the Packers want, and when you combine that with his ability, Green Bay will likely keep him around.

Exercise the option? Yes.

Much like Ed Oliver before him, Rousseau has progressed in each season. He’s not necessarily dominant in this Bills front, but Rousseau has emerged as a consistent disruptor.

Exercise the option? Yes.

Similar to Gregory Rousseau, Oweh has steadily come along in Baltimore, posting five sacks and a pair of forced fumbles in 13 games this season. Pass rushers produce in waves for the Ravens, and this athletic edge could be the next guy to become more of a focal point. 

Exercise the option? Yes.

The Bucs had the luxury of taking Tryon-Shoyinka here with the hope he would learn from veteran Shaq Barrett and others. He’s done that and evolved into an energetic playmaker on the second level for Todd Bowles.