Week 9 NFL picks: Eagles defeat Cowboys in massive NFC East bout; Bengals unanimous winners over Bills

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday’s game and the rest of their Week 9 picks below.

NOTES:

1. Teams on bye: 49ers, Broncos, Jaguars, Lions.
2. The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 2 unless otherwise noted below.
3. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
4. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, NOV. 5

Why Tom is taking the Chiefs: The Dolphins fell short in two previous matchups against top contenders, losing to the Bills and Eagles by a combined margin of 42 points. I was all set to explain why Miami, riding high off an easy win over New England, would finally defeat an upper-echelon team on Sunday, with the Chiefs looking human lately. But Patrick Mahomes is just the safer choice, now and forever. He’s not sick anymore, and I ultimately trust him over the feeling that led me to write “leaning Dolphins” in parentheses next to this game when I started working on this blurb.

Why Brooke is taking the Vikings: At first blush, this game feels as though it could catapult these teams, who are each working through major changes at the quarterback position, in different directions. Atlanta turns to a likable journeyman in Taylor Heinicke, who has rallied teams midway through past seasons and has the talent around him to do it again. Rookie Jaren Hall will likely get the start for Minnesota, with newly acquired Joshua Dobbs waiting in the wings. Man, both of these rosters feature talented playmakers on offense, and it’s a matter of which quarterback can be the best point guard. Any sane person would take the home team with the veteran quarterback, but two months into this thing, surprises still seem to hit me in the mouth. So, sure — give me the Vikings. I can imagine them making just enough plays on both sides of the ball to eke out a win.

Why Ali is taking the Ravens: In a week with a handful of heavyweight matchups, this slugfest between coastal elites might be my favorite. High-powered offenses, hard-hitting defenses — what more can you ask for? Mistake-free football, if you’re Pete Carroll. Seattle ranks second in the NFL in penalties per game, many of them of the pre-snap variety that put the Seahawks behind the sticks before they can even get going. They also rank in the league’s bottom tier on third down — both on offense (35.4%; 23rd) and defense (45.3%; 30th). The ‘Hawks largely have been able to overcome their self-inflicted errors thanks to a very forgiving schedule (.368 strength of victory), but continued carelessness will not fly against the Ravens. Especially not at M&T Bank Stadium, where Lamar Jackson boasts a .765 career winning percentage (26-8) — the fourth-best home win rate among active QBs since 2018.

Why Ali is taking the Browns: Spooky Season isn’t over for the Cardinals just yet. From a quarterback’s perspective in the year 2023, can you imagine a more nightmarish way to start an NFL career than making a road trip to Cleveland, with Jim Schwartz strolling the opposite sideline and Myles Garrett looming on the opposite side of the ball? Poor Clayton Tune. If having to face Schwartz’s top-ranked defense isn’t terrifying enough, consider the veteran coordinator’s success against rookie QBs since 2017:

• Record: 5-0-1
• Comp% allowed: 58.3
• Passer rating allowed: 75.3
• Turnovers forced: 9
• Sacks per game: 3.8

Of course, if Kyler Murray is the one making his (season) debut, Arizona’s odds improve some — just not enough. The Browns’ speedy, unforgiving defense is probably the last unit a quarterback — even one of Kyler’s ability — first wants to face after nearly 11 months off.

UPDATE: Clayton Tune is in line to make his first NFL start on Sunday, per the team’s website.

Why Dan is taking the Packers: I’ll note that I’ve picked the Packers to win each of their last three games. Their record in those games: 0-3. So, take whatever I say here with as large a grain of salt as you can get your hands on. More importantly, Matthew Stafford is day to day with a sprained UCL in his right thumb as of this writing. He is backed up by Brett Rypien, who has a career TD-to-INT ratio of 4:8. Perhaps this is the matchup Green Bay’s defense needs to get going. Maybe Los Angeles, which gave up 43 points a week ago, is the defense to give a sputtering offense a chance to eclipse 20 points for the first time since Week 2.

UPDATE: Brett Rypien is expected to start for the Rams against the Packers, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported Saturday evening.

Why Gennaro is taking the Buccaneers: Is the book out on C.J. Stroud? After taking the NFL by storm in the first four weeks of this season, the No. 2 overall pick has crashed back to Earth over his past three games:

• Stroud in Weeks 1-4: 303 pass ypg, 8.0 ypa, 6:0 TD-to-INT, 62.3 comp%, 100.6 passer rating.
• Stroud since Week 5: 196 pass ypg, 6.8 ypa, 3:1 TD-to-INT, 57.0 comp%, 84.8 passer rating.

The stark dip in production suggests the league has adjusted to Stroud. Now it’s on Stroud to adjust back. But that’s a tall order this Sunday, facing a desperate Bucs team that had extra time to prepare after suffering a third straight loss last Thursday night. With havoc-creators at all three levels of his experienced defense, Todd Bowles certainly isn’t gonna go easy on the rookie.

Why Ali is taking the Patriots: The past several days have been a doozy for the Commanders: They were swept by the Eagles, fell to 0-3 in the division and traded away their two starting edge rushers. The Patriots, meanwhile, lost their top receiver to a season-ending injury and dropped their sixth game in eight tries. At least there’s a sliver of a silver lining for New England? I’m banking on Washington’s roster upheaval having the bigger impact in the locker room and on the field Sunday, allowing Bill Belichick’s group to eke out a messy win at home.

Why Gennaro is taking the Saints: Filling in for the injured Justin Fields, undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent has sandwiched two turnover-riddled duds around one game-manager win. And none of the defenses he’s encountered would be confused for top-tier units. That changes this Sunday, when the pride of Shepherd University hits the Superdome to face a Saints defense that ranks second in opponent passer rating and third-down percentage, as well as fifth in takeaways. Last Nov. 5, Bagent shredded East Stroudsburg for 400 yards and five touchdowns through the air. Not expecting that kind of performance this Nov. 5.

Why Tom is taking the Colts: I rolled the dice on the Colts in Week 8 and got burned, but I can’t resist doing it again. As I wrote last week, Gardner Minshew has been a turnover and touchdown machine. Bryce Young has cut down on the TOs for Carolina, but he’s also been short on TDs. In the end, I’m convinced by Indy’s advantage on the ground, with Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss capable of carrying the day against the 29th-ranked rushing defense.

Why Brooke is taking the Raiders: What a week it’s been for the Raiders, who head into November with a new interim head coach (Antonio Pierce), new offensive play-caller (Bo Hardegree) and new starting quarterback (Aidan O’Connell). It’s only the rookie QB’s third appearance (though he did start a game back in Week 4 as an injury replacement), so I expect to see a surplus of Josh Jacobs. With so many moving parts on offense, Las Vegas’ defense must answer the bell and keep the opposing attack at bay. It doesn’t seem like a tall order, with the Giants averaging a league-low 11.9 points per game this season, but they do get Daniel Jones back from a neck injury. Jones could be rusty and is still vulnerable behind a poor offensive line. This one could go either way, but after the week Las Vegas has had, look for Maxx Crosby to rally the troops in an ugly, disjointed affair.

Why Tom is taking the Eagles: In Week 8, Dallas looked unbeatable against the Rams, while the Eagles didn’t take their first lead over the Commanders until the fourth quarter — when they secured their fourth one-possession win (in five such games) this season. The Cowboys have not been stress-tested in 2023 like Jalen Hurts and Co. I have more faith in Philly’s ability to withstand a rough-and-tumble divisional matchup, especially at home, than I do in Dallas to win ugly.

Why Dan is taking the Bengals: There’s been a bit of a role reversal between these two AFC contenders in the past month, with Cincinnati heating up after a rough start while injuries are clearly taking their toll on the Bills. No ailment stands out more than the shoulder issue that continues to hinder Josh Allen. I wouldn’t put it past Allen to gut out a narrow win on the road when people are starting to doubt him, but the Bengals are playing too well for me to pick against them. It’s hard to love a Buffalo defense down three Week 1 starters against Joe Burrow right now.

MONDAY, NOV. 6

Why Gennaro is taking the Jets: In last Sunday’s narrow triumph at the battle of MetLife Stadium, the Jets held the Giants to -9 yards passing. That’s not a typo: NEGATIVE NINE. Yes, injuries played a factor, but that’s a humiliating statistic for the general practice of quarterbacking. I suspect Justin Herbert will finish Monday evening in the black, but as Robert Saleh said last month, this defense has a knack for humbling megastar quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen finished 1-2-3 in MVP voting last season. Against the Jets this season, they’ve gone 1-2, collectively producing ghastly figures through the air: 239.7 ypg, 3:8 TD-to-INT, 61.7 passer rating. Herbert put on a show last Sunday night, but that was at home, against a moribund Bears defense. This prime-time spotlight’s far less accommodating.

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Dan is taking the Steelers: OK, Will Levis — let’s see you do that again, this time against Mike Tomlin’s team. A warning: Rookie quarterbacks are 1-15 in the previous 20 seasons when playing in Pittsburgh. In fact, a rookie QB has never won a prime-time game in the Steel City (0-5 all time, per NFL research). Good luck! Now, the absence of Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) on the Steelers’ defense should not be overlooked, but if T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are allowed to wreak havoc against a suspect Titans offensive line, it could be a long night for the second-round pick.

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