Week 5 NFL picks: 49ers top Cowboys to remain undefeated; Ravens beat Steelers in Pittsburgh

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday night’s game and the rest of their Week 5 picks below.

NOTES:

1. Teams on bye: Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers, Seahawks.
2. The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 5 unless otherwise noted below.
3. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
4. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, OCT. 8

Why Brooke is taking the Bills: The Bills’ defense has been lights out the last few weeks, holding the explosive Dolphins to their lowest point total of the season. While the loss of Tre’Davious White is a concern, Buffalo still has enough playmakers on that side of the ball to prevent Trevor Lawrence and Co. from going toe to toe with its own Josh Allen-led unit, which has averaged 38.7 points per game since Week 2. You could make the argument that the Bills are the best team in the NFL heading into Week 5, but the thing that makes this a closer game than one might think is the neutral location and the fact that Jacksonville has been in London for an extra week.

Why Ali is taking the Texans: Talk about two quarterbacks moving in polar-opposite directions: One is playing his way to the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, while the other might be playing himself out of a starting job. C.J. Stroud just shredded the Jags and Steelers in consecutive weeks, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt with zero turnovers as Houston’s offense scored 30 points in back-to-back games for the first time since 2020 (Weeks 5 and 6). Meanwhile, Desmond Ridder, with a more talented and celebrated supporting cast, led the Falcons to 13 total points over their past two games (including a measly seven against Jacksonville), with as many giveaways in that span as Stroud had touchdown passes (four). Ridder needs a bounce-back performance in the worst way. If it’s to happen, it’d be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where he’s a perfect 4-0 in his young career (0-4 on the road). But the Texans are a gritty bunch, playing too soundly and with too much confidence for this to be Ridder’s get-right game.

Why Dan is taking the Lions: I worry for Bryce Young in this one. The Lions were last seen hitting Jordan Love 11 times in a Thursday night romp at Lambeau Field. Now they’re coming off a mini-bye, playing at home and will be lining up against one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Protect yourself, Bryce. The rookie QB has led one touchdown drive in his last 10 quarters of play. A frisky Detroit defense should be licking its chops.

Why Gennaro is taking the Colts: With all four teams sitting at 2-2, the AFC South is a model of equality in a league built on parity. That said, these two feel like franchises at opposite ends of the team-building spectrum, with the aging Titans looking to squeeze out a third division title in the past four seasons, while the upstart Colts aim to claim their first AFC South crown in nearly a decade. Can Mike Vrabel bank his sixth straight win against Indianapolis? Or will Shane Steichen enjoy his first home victory as a head coach? And which extraordinary physical specimen provides the freakier freak show: Derrick Henry or Anthony Richardson? With the game in Indy, I’ll ride with the new Colts on the block.

Why Dan is taking the Dolphins: There are not many opponents that offer the Dolphins a better bounce-back opportunity than the Giants. No team has scored fewer points this season, as New York mustered 0, 3 and 12 points in its three losses. The G-Men can do a little better than that against a Miami defense that has shown it has some soft spots, especially if Saquon Barkley returns. But the Giants’ offensive line is still a mess. Brian Daboll’s team is not built to keep up with the league’s highest-scoring offense.

Why Tom is taking the Saints: Derek Carr and the Saints’ offense burned me last week. I likely wouldn’t trust them again this week if they weren’t facing the Patriots, one of the few teams in the league averaging fewer points per game (13.8, 30th in the NFL heading into Week 5) than New Orleans (15.5, T-25th). The Saints haven’t managed many explosive plays so far, but I don’t think they’ll need a ton to outlast New England.

Why Brooke is taking the Ravens: It’s a good sign for the Steelers that Kenny Pickett says his knee injury won’t keep him sidelined for this weekend’s divisional tilt. Even with Pickett, though, the offense has yet to be the well-oiled machine we saw in the preseason, recording less than 300 total yards in three of four games. Baltimore, meanwhile, welcomed Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr. and Marlon Humphrey back to practice this week. If the WR duo joins Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews on Sunday, Lamar Jackson — who has a 124.1 passer rating in two games against division opponents this season — could eviscerate a Pittsburgh defense that’s allowing the third-most yards in 2023. Give me the Ravens, who, with this win, would become the first team since the 2019 Chiefs to play each of their first three divisional games on the road and win all three.

Why Gennaro is taking the Bengals: Back in the ancient days of early September, the Bengals were a popular Super Bowl pick, while the Cardinals were a popular punchline. Oh, what a difference a month makes. In the here and now, the Bengals rank dead last in total offense and offensive scoring, while the Cardinals boast a top-10 mark in yards per play. Clearly compromised by a lingering calf injury, Joe Burrow already has more touchdown-free games this year (three) than he logged over his first three NFL seasons combined (two). But with Cincy’s star quarterback going to the “must-win” well this week, I anticipate the Bengals staving off another game effort from Jonathan Gannon’s ragtag Redbirds.

Why Ali is taking the Eagles: The Eagles have yet to showcase that world-beater form we’ve come to expect after last year’s Super Bowl run. And still they’re 4-0. That should worry a lot of folks. The Rams are one of the more spirited 2-2 teams and will not be an easy out. But I worry how a hobbled Matthew Stafford will hold up against Jalen Carter and Co. — even with (former) security blanket Cooper Kupp potentially making his 2023 debut. The Eagles’ advantage in the trenches and the recently rekindled Jalen Hurts–A.J. Brown connection put them over the top.

Why Ali is taking the Jets: The Nathaniel Hackett revenge game would’ve been a lot juicier with Aaron Rodgers under center instead of on crutches. But imagine if the former Broncos head man is able to extract a second consecutive quality performance from Zach Wilson this Sunday. How would Sean Payton like that coaching job? Denver’s reeling defense presents a real opportunity for the young passer — and the Jets as a whole — to build some momentum and get their season back on track. Expect a disproportionate number of handoffs from Wilson, as the Jets attack a Broncos unit that ranks 32nd against the run (and it’s not even close). With emotions running high, I think the Jets narrowly win one for Nate.

Why Tom is taking the Chiefs: The Chiefs are (probably) going to lose again at some point this season, and just based on how the NFL works, there’s a decent chance that next L will be a mild head-scratcher against a less-talented opponent. The Vikings have the pieces to push Kansas City as close to the brink as the Jets did, and they’ll be at home. I cannot, however, seriously predict Kirk Cousins‘ team will finish this game with more points than Patrick Mahomes‘.

Why Dan is taking the 49ers: Strange things happen sometimes, but I don’t think you beat this 49ers team by being one of the worst red-zone offenses in the league. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they rank 30th in that category entering this highly anticipated matchup. I know the sample size is relatively small, but even if Dallas is a bit better in that area on Sunday, is that going to be enough against Nick Bosa and Co.? Jerry Jones was right this week when he called the 49ers the best. No notes.

MONDAY, OCT. 9

Why Gennaro is taking the Packers: In the first two weeks of this season, Jordan Love posted league-best marks in TD-to-INT ratio (6:0) and passer rating (118.8). Over the last two weeks, his production fell off a cliff: two touchdown tosses, three interceptions and a 68.0 passer rating. But in this week’s Vegas venture, Love draws a Raiders pass defense that’s been quite accommodating to opposing signal-callers, yielding an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio and 108.2 passer rating. So, after an unappealing prime-time performance last Thursday, Love reclaims America’s heart with a fine showing under the Monday night lights.

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Tom is taking the Commanders: If this were just for fun, I would be tempted to pick the Bears, who put up their most encouraging play of the season before collapsing against Denver. But the goal here is to go with what seems like the likeliest outcome, and while I have a bit more faith in Justin Fields than I did last week, I’m not ready to take Chicago against a Commanders team that should be feeling itself at home after holding its own in Philly.

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