Week 3 NFL picks: Who wins Eagles-Buccaneers, Rams-Bengals on Monday night?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Sunday’s games and the rest of their Week 3 picks below.

The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 21 unless otherwise noted below.

• * — Pick flipped after publishing.
• ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

MONDAY, SEPT. 25

Why Tom is taking the Eagles: Incredibly, Baker Mayfield could get closer than Bill Belichick and Justin Jefferson did to actually knocking off the reigning NFC champs. The QB is rolling with the best set of pass catchers he’s ever had, and if Tampa’s ninth-ranked D coaxes Philly’s occasionally wobbly offense into one of those extended slow-downs it’s been prone to this season, the Bucs could take advantage. That said, I can’t really talk myself into trusting Baker over Jalen Hurts, not against the toughest defense Mayfield’s seen this year.

Why Brooke is taking the Rams: Joe Burrow hasn’t looked anything like the quarterback who’s taken the Bengals deep in the postseason the last two years, with back-to-back slow starts putting Cincy in a bind early in a tough AFC North race. Week 3 is where we generally have seen Burrow start to turn things around, but his tweaked calf is a huge concern, especially with Aaron Donald looming on the horizon of Monday night. Even if Burrow plays, how far away from 100 percent will he be? Meanwhile, Sean McVay has his offense firing on all cylinders with fifth-round rookie receiver Puka Nacua setting records left and right. I’ve gone back and forth several times on this prime-time rematch of Super Bowl LVI. I want to believe in Cincinnati, but there are too many questions right now, starting with the status of Mr. Brrr. Give me the Rams, who have never had a losing record through Week 3 under McVay.

SUNDAY’S GAMES

Why Dan is taking the Ravens: If the Colts are going to pull the upset, they will need to force Lamar Jackson into some errors and play a sound enough defensive game to give themselves a chance. Also, they will need a heroic performance from backup QB Gardner Minshew if Anthony Richardson is still out after suffering a concussion last week. That seems like asking a lot of Indianapolis. As fun as it is to think of the alternative, I’m not foreseeing an encore of Minshew Mania in Baltimore.

UPDATE: With Anthony Richardson not practicing on Friday, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero report that Gardner Minshew is in line to start Sunday.

Why Tom is taking the Titans: It’s hard to reconcile the post-Nick Chubb haplessness of Deshaun Watson and the Browns’ offense against the Steelers on Monday with Cleveland’s status as the favorite here, even at home, even with Kareem Hunt signed. It’s much easier to picture the Browns becoming embroiled in yet another ugly nail-biter. Jim Schwartz’s defense poses a definite problem for the Titans, but after an encouraging showing against the Chargers, Tennessee should be able to muster enough to squeak by.

Why Gennaro is taking the Lions: The Lions’ most highly anticipated home opener in memory did NOT go as planned. The refurbished defense helped Seattle’s Geno Smith get right, Jared Goff‘s epic interception-less streak ended with a devastating pick-six, and Detroit’s health issues piled up, including a potential season-ender to C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Adding insult to injury — literally! — the Seahawks turned CJGJ’s pregame ski-mask bit into a postgame troll job. For the Lions, Ford Field felt more like Ford’s Theatre. Other than that, Mr. Campbell, how was the game? Back in the friendly confines this Sunday, though, Detroit can ward off deep-rooted “same old Lions” vibes by beating the upstart Falcons. The vision here: Aaron Glenn’s run defense remains just stout enough against Arthur Smith’s souped-up smashmouth offense to eke out a win.

Why Ali is taking the Saints: The Packers’ young receiving corps will face its stiffest test yet in a Saints secondary playing as well as any in the league. Marcus Maye’s suspension is certainly a blow to that unit, and the defense overall, but New Orleans has the playmakers at all three levels to withstand his absence. That this game is in Green Bay might actually work to the Saints’ advantage, given how dominant Dennis Allen’s defenses have been on the road in recent years. Since 2018, New Orleans has allowed the fewest points per game (18.7) and the third-fewest yards per game (317.9) away from home, per NFL Research. The Saints’ ability to hold firm in tough environments — and Lambeau is as tough as it gets — makes the difference on Sunday.

Why Brooke is taking the Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence and Co. took a step back in Week 2, settling for field goals in three trips to the red zone. That’s not going to be enough — even against a rookie quarterback still navigating the game at the highest level. I expect Jacksonville to rebound offensively against a Houston D that’s allowing 28 points per game. Rookie C.J. Stroud showed improvement in throwing for nearly 400 yards last week, but the man needs better protection. He’s been sacked a league-high 11 times in two weeks — David Carr is somewhere having serious flashbacks right now — and the Jags’ opportunistic defense is sure to take advantage of the Texans’ shoddy O-line.

Why Gennaro is taking the Dolphins: An offensive juggernaut through the first two weeks of this season, Miami has exhibited a pick-your-poison attack that can kill you by land or air. In Week 1, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill staged a flying circus on Brandon Staley’s Chargers. Bill Belichick responded by putting an umbrella over Miami’s wideouts in Week 2, inherently allowing Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert to gash the Patriots on the ground. So, what’s the move this weekend for Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph? His underperforming unit has drawn the ire of his boss and the man his boss chose not to hire. Unfortunately for Joseph, I don’t envision Sunday helping his cause with either.

Why Dan is taking the Vikings: Consider this my low-confidence pick of the week. Neither team has done anything to earn credibility in the early going, but the Vikings are at home and will have had nine days to prepare for the Chargers after losing last Thursday night. Minnesota has lost six fumbles this season, the most by any team through two games in 20 years, while the Bolts are the first team in league history to start 0-2 despite scoring 50+ points and having zero giveaways in their first two games. Maybe the Vikings play a little cleaner while the Chargers do the opposite? Flip a coin.

Why Dan is taking the Patriots: I have little faith in the Patriots’ offense, especially in this matchup, but if Bill Belichick can no longer put together a game plan to shut down Zach Wilson, then I’m afraid it’s about to get really ugly in New England. The Jets QB has a career record of 0-4 against the Pats with a 50.9 percent completion rate, TD-to-INT ratio of 2:7 and passer rating of 50.6. Per NFL Research, Wilson ranks last in those three categories among the 54 quarterbacks with 100-plus pass attempts versus a single opponent since 2021. Mac Jones and Co. seem like they’re in real jeopardy of falling to 0-3, but I can’t bring myself to predict it.

Why Ali is taking the Commanders: Sam Howell stockholders must be feeling pretty good after last Sunday’s performance, when the 23-year-old orchestrated his second fourth-quarter comeback in as many weeks. With a stout, ball-hawking Buffalo defense coming to town, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will need to continue to scheme up creative ways to get the ball out of Howell’s hands and into those of his deep list of playmakers. Just like last week: Get ’em in space, and let ’em YAC. If Howell stays disciplined and decisive, and the Commanders can pressure Josh Allen with just their front four, Washington scores the upset to hit 3-0 for the first time since 2005.

Why Tom is taking the Seahawks: Geno Smith likely won’t be able to coast, exactly, against the NFL’s fourth-ranked pass defense, even with Shaq Thompson and Jaycee Horn on the shelf, especially if DK Metcalf is out or limited. But I would expect that ranking to look worse by the end of Week 3. Carolina just does not look ready to hang with Seattle, whether Bryce Young is under center or not. The Seahawks should have a much more comfortable time at home than they did in the season-opening loss to the Rams.

UPDATE: Bryce Young has been ruled out of Sunday’s game, lifting veteran Andy Dalton into Carolina’s starting lineup.

Why Brooke is taking the Cowboys: Through two weeks, the Cowboys boast the No. 1 scoring offense (35 points per game) and the No. 1 scoring defense (5.0 points per game!), while the Cardinals just blew a three-touchdown lead to the team Dallas shut out in Week 1. The beauty of the NFL is any team can win on any given Sunday … just not this time.

UPDATE: Dallas’ defense took a serious hit on Thursday, as NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported that Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs tore his ACL in practice.

Why Ali is taking the Chiefs: It’s Justin Fields‘ fault. Luke Getsy’s to blame. What about the defense? A lot of finger-pointing going on among Chicago sports fans right now, as they grapple with the team’s demoralizing start and the young QB’s early struggles. Up next: a date with the reigning Super Bowl champs at Arrowhead. Not great, right? Actually, I think the Chiefs are sneakily the perfect opponent at the perfect moment for the Bears — and more importantly, their third-year passer. The odds are literally stacked against him. Expectations have bottomed out. But with the bulk of that weight off his shoulders, I think we finally see a freer, looser and less apprehensive Fields. Although the Bears come up short in this one — they’re not fixing all of their problems overnight, especially not against the best player on the planet — the game’s not as lopsided as folks might think, thanks to Fields embracing a nothing-to-lose mentality. Let it rip.

Why Gennaro is taking the Raiders: In Pittsburgh’s 26-22 win over Cleveland this past Monday night, the Steelers scored the first points of the game on an OLB pick-six and the last points of the game on an OLB pick-up-six. With all due respect to Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt, that’s not happening in back-to-back weeks. So, where do Pittsburgh’s points come from this Sunday night? A sputtering offense that just put its leading receiver of the past three seasons on IR? In the Raiders’ home opener, I trust Josh Jacobs to get right against Pittsburgh’s last-ranked run defense more than I trust Kenny Pickett to get right against Las Vegas’ suspect secondary.

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Ali is taking the 49ers: Take a look around the NFC East through two weeks and it’s not hyperbole to think the Giants’ improbable second-half comeback on Sunday saved their season. Well, for a few days at least. Despite the resilience displayed in Arizona, Brian Daboll’s bunch has to be concerned with the historic ineptitude of its first six quarters and the realization of what lies ahead: a brutal five-game gauntlet (8-2 combined record of next five opponents) that begins with a short week … on the road … with an O-line struggling to protect Daniel Jones … against a defense that leads the league in QB pressures … and no Saquon Barkley. On the bright side, Giants fans won’t have to stay up late to see how this one ends.

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