Week 17 NFL picks: Ravens unanimously chosen to beat Dolphins; Bucs top Saints to clinch NFC South

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Saturday’s game and the rest of their Week 17 picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of noon ET on Thursday, Dec. 28 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, DEC. 31

Why Tom is taking the Ravens: While looking for signs Baltimore might be vulnerable, I instead came away with a greater appreciation for the Ravens’ ability to succeed in nearly any kind of circumstance this season. They’ve won on the road, at home, against good teams, against bad teams, by huge margins and narrow ones. Miami has not shown that kind of resilience yet. The Dolphins could push Baltimore, but the Ravens will not flinch, not with a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Why Brooke is taking the Bills: I’m sure Bill Belichick and the Patriots would love nothing more than to make the Bills sweat out a potential playoff berth for one more week, but that’s easier said than done. Because while the Pats’ defense has allowed just 15.7 points and 265.2 total yards per game since Week 10 (both second in the NFL) and the offense has found new life(ish) with Bailey Zappe, the Bills are playing some of their best football of the season — unlike when these teams met back in Week 7. And this contest is in Buffalo, where Josh Allen is 6-1 with 16 pass TDs against just five picks. Weirder things have happened, but the Bills are carrying too much momentum into a home game with a playoff slot in their grasp to let this one go.

Why Ali is taking the Bears: By all accounts, Montez Sweat seems like a solid, stand-up dude. But since his arrival in Chicago at the trade deadline, the Bears have become downright selfish: The offense leads the NFL in time of possession, while the defense ranks near the top in takeaways and opponents’ time of possession per drive. In other words, Sweat and Friends take the ball and keep it. Bad news for the edge rusher’s former teammate, Taylor Heinicke, who has the sixth-highest turnover-per-play percentage (2.9%) among QBs since entering the league in 2017. To be fair, the backup-turned-starter (times two) did provide the proverbial “spark” in his return to the first-team offense last week, leading the unit to its cleanest, most effective performance of the season. But that was in Atlanta, against a banged-up Colts squad. The Falcons have fared far worse away from home (2-5). So it seems unwise to count on Heinicke having a repeat showing on Sunday at Soldier Field, where opposing teams have gone winless (0-4) with a -6 turnover margin since late October.

Why Tom is taking the Texans: These teams played each other close in Week 15, but that was without C.J. Stroud on the field — and before the Titans were officially eliminated from the playoff hunt. Now, Stroud is practicing again, meaning he could be back in time to make a final push for the postseason. Tennessee has the goods to play spoiler. However, even if Stroud sits out again, I’ll put my faith in DeMeco Ryans, who should be plenty motivated to end his first season as head coach on a strong note.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: Stroud did not appear on the Texans’ injury report Friday and is set to start; on Thursday, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that Stroud cleared concussion protocol.

Why Gennaro is taking the Raiders: Asked this week about how he’d make his case for the permanent job to Raiders owner Mark Davis, interim head coach Antonio Pierce did not mince words: “My résumé is on the grass.” Having posted a 4-3 record since taking the wheel after Josh McDaniels’ firing, Pierce’s two most striking résumé items have come in the past two weeks: dropping 63 points on the Chargers in prime time and then stifling the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes Chiefs in Kansas City. This Sunday provides another opportunity to impress, with Pierce’s Raiders traveling to Indianapolis to take on Shane Steichen’s Colts. Steichen has received widespread acclaim in his debut head-coaching season, as his injury-riddled team surprisingly remains squarely in the playoff race at 8-7. But Las Vegas’ defense, which has taken off since Pierce took over, is the best unit in this game. Maxx Crosby and Co. win the day.

Why Brooke is taking the Jaguars: In what felt like the blink of an eye, the Jags went from seriously competing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed to holding on for dear life in a division race that felt over entering December. Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a shoulder injury; so is backup C.J. Beathard, apparently. With questions at quarterback (those remain even if Lawrence gives it a go), Travis Etienne must climb out of his slump and find a way to be productive against a Panthers run defense that was gashed for 162 yards last week. If he can do that and the Josh Allen-led defense can disrupt a Bryce Young-fronted offense that’s suddenly showing signs of life, Jacksonville should get its first December win.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: Lawrence has been ruled out of Sunday’s game with a sprained shoulder.

Why Ali is taking the Rams: Los Angeles is 5-1 since its Week 10 bye (with the team’s only blemish being an overtime road loss to the league-leading Ravens), transforming a once-lost season into a potential playoff berth. Over that six-game span, the offense ranks third in points per game (29.8) and second in yards per game (406), behind a 35-year-old quarterback playing the position with as much confidence, anticipation and precision as any passer in the NFL. Now, it’s worth noting Matthew Stafford does have a knack for throwing pick-sixes, which could be problematic against a Wink Martindale defense that leads the league in takeaways since the season’s midpoint. But I don’t see the Giants’ struggling pass rush (32nd in QB pressure %, 31st in sack % since Week 9, per NGS) causing enough disruption to consistently force Stafford off his spot — especially not against a Rams O-line that’s allowed just seven total sacks over the last six games. L.A. rolls in this one, taking another step toward a playoff return.

Why Brooke is taking the Eagles: The Eagles have been working out the kinks for, well, too long, and it’s bound to catch up to them. But not yet. Philly’s struggling defense has an opportunity for that get-right game against Kyler Murray, who has underwhelmed in his return, logging career lows in many passing and rushing categories. I also expect to see a heavy dose of D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell against Arizona’s 32nd-ranked run D — which should allow the pass game to open up for Jalen Hurts to potentially force feed a disgruntled A.J. Brown. Even with Jonathan Gannon knowing the Eagles better than most others who come into the Linc, Philly should head into the new year on a good note.

Why Ali is taking the Buccaneers: The Bucs enter this NFC South clash on a four-game win streak, with a quarterback playing lights out, a defense finding its groove and a division title at stake. They’re also at home, where they haven’t lost since late October. So, a lot of angles work in Tampa’s favor. But to me, the Bucs’ biggest X-factor in this matchup is their depth at the second level. Todd Bowles’ defense is one of the few in the league with the linebackers capable of mitigating Alvin Kamara‘s versatility as both a runner and receiver. In fact, when these two teams met in Week 4 — a 26-9 Bucs win — Kamara had a whopping 13 receptions for a measly 33 yards. Tampa’s ability to contain Kamara while still taking away chunk plays contributed to Derek Carr‘s abysmal 3.4 yards per attempt — the second-worst mark of his 10-year career. New Orleans’ quick-strike capability via Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed is concerning, but not enough for me to pick against these surging Bucs.

Why Ali is taking the 49ers: If there isn’t a good time to catch this 49ers team, there’s most certainly a bad time. And unfortunately for the Commanders and their porous offensive line, hosting Kyle Shanahan’s club after Monday’s humbling loss to the Ravens falls into that second bucket. Although the Niners are a bit banged up following their Christmas clunker, with both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel nursing injuries, they still have a significant talent advantage over Washington on both sides of the ball. And with a week to pore over Jacoby Brissett‘s tape, don’t expect the jolt he created in a second-half relief effort to be nearly as powerful this Sunday. The 49ers use the short week to their benefit, reminding everyone in quick order that they remain the cream of the NFC’s crop.

Why Gennaro is taking the Steelers: In many ways, this matchup feels like an interconference version of the Spider-Man meme, with two unremarkable, inconsistent 8-7 teams pointing at each other. Fittingly, our resident Power Ranker, Eric Edholm, has them sitting right next to each other at Nos. 16 and 17, squarely in the fat middle of the league pecking order. The playoff picture tells a different story, though. The Seahawks entered this week holding the NFC’s No. 7 seed, with Next Gen Stats giving them a 68 percent chance at making the tourney. Meanwhile, the Steelers are postseason long shots on the AFC side, needing to leapfrog three teams in two weeks. But as you’re undoubtedly aware, Mike Tomlin is one win away from locking up a 17th straight non-losing season — a streak that remains notable no matter how many times it’s shoved down your throat. Open wide on Sunday!

Why Gennaro is taking the Broncos: When last these two teams met, Russell Wilson led the Broncos to their sixth win in seven games, putting a major damper on Brandon Staley’s 41st birthday. Three game weeks and four combined losses later, Staley’s unemployed and Wilson’s unwanted, as both organizations clearly have turned the page to next season. But what can we expect in the penultimate game of this season? Well, in the wake of Denver’s decision to put Russ on the shelf — thus preserving financial flexibility with the quarterback’s nine-figure contract — Jarrett Stidham gets the starting reins. Remember, Sean Payton aggressively pursued Stidham in free agency this past March, leading many to surmise back then that Wilson could be on borrowed time with the new coach. Whether or not Stidham is the answer at quarterback, you better believe Payton will do everything he can to avoid awkward questions about Wilson. And nothing thwarts second-guessing better than winning.

Why Tom is taking the Chiefs: OK, so the Chiefs looked very human against the Raiders in Week 16. What am I supposed to do, pick Patrick Mahomes to lose a second consecutive game in Arrowhead to a team starting a backup quarterback? I’m not there yet, not when Las Vegas needed a couple of fluky defensive scores and more rushing yards (157) than Cincinnati has managed in any game this season to upset K.C. Scenes of a Chiefs meltdown are perhaps easier to imagine than ever, but at this point, they are not something to plan for when picking games.

Why Brooke is taking the Vikings: The Vikings are without T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison‘s status is in doubt at publishing. That doesn’t bode well for whichever unpredictable quarterback is on the field for Minnesota. The fact that Green Bay will be without Jaire Alexander — who’s serving a one-game suspension — certainly helps. So does playing at U.S. Bank Stadium. A lot falls on Brian Flores’ defense, which also just lost pass rusher D.J. Wonnum to injury, to stall Jordan Love, who’s thrown at least two TDs and zero picks in five of his last six games. Honestly, these divisional matchups are always a fight to the end, and I could see it going either way. But I’ll forecast a Greg Joseph field goal as time expires.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: The Vikings announced on Thursday that rookie quarterback Jaren Hall will start Sunday night’s game.

SATURDAY’S GAME

Why Gennaro is taking the Cowboys: Fourteen months ago, the Lions traveled to Dallas and embarrassed themselves, committing five second-half turnovers in an 18-point loss. With another defeat seven days later, Detroit fell to 1-6 on the season and 4-19-1 in the Dan Campbell/Brad Holmes era. But something strange happened on the way to another “Same Old Lions” regime washout: Detroit started winning. A lot. Over the last 13 months, this team has posted a 19-6 record. This past Sunday, Detroit clinched its first division title in 30 years, cementing the notion that these are indeed the “Brand New Lions.” So, why am I predicting another defeat in this week’s return to Jerry World? Well, this is an extremely tough spot for the visitors. Fresh off two more road losses, an angry Dallas team returns home, where the 2023 Cowboys play like the 1993 Cowboys. Riding the weekly roller coaster that is this parity-driven league, it feels like a time for Dallas to go up and Detroit to go down.

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Tom is taking the Browns: The Jets will present the toughest defensive test yet of Joe Flacco‘s Cleveland revival, and the sailing is not likely to be as smooth as it was against the Texans in Week 16. Then again, smooth sailing hasn’t exactly been the key to the Browns’ success lately. New York could keep Flacco and Co. in check to some degree — but I’ll still take Cleveland at home, with a chance to clinch a playoff berth, over Trevor Siemian against the Browns’ own imposing D.

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