Week 15 NFL picks: Will Bills end Cowboys' 5-game win streak? Ravens unanimously chosen over Jags

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday’s game and the rest of their Week 15 picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of Noon ET on Thursday, Dec. 14 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, DEC. 17

Why Gennaro is taking the Panthers: Carolina was the last NFL team to get off the schneid this season, upsetting Houston in Week 8. Ever since, I’ve been inexplicably bullish on the Panthers logging Win No. 2. In fact, I immediately predicted a Week 9 triumph over Indianapolis … and they lost by two touchdowns. In Week 13, I forecast a three-point victory in Tampa Bay … and they lost by three. Two weeks later, here I am, going right back to this clearly contaminated well. Why? Well …

A) I believe in Ejiro Evero’s underrated defense, especially as it gets healthier.

B) I remain skeptical of Arthur Smith’s offense, despite Desmond Ridder‘s career-high 347 passing yards this past Sunday.

C) I am obviously quite stubborn, committed to dying on the hill of a 1-12 team that already fired its coach.

Why Tom is taking the Browns: If this were in Chicago, I might go with the Bears, who have been rolling lately, while the Browns can’t stop losing important players to injury. Chicago’s Montez Sweat-ified pass rush should also be a concern for Cleveland, which has been relying on fill-in tackles Geron Christian and James Hudson — who, to their credit, did help keep Joe Flacco clean against Josh Allen and the Jaguars in Week 14. Perhaps my vision is clouded by a touch of Flacco Fever, but I see this one going down to the wire, with Joe and Co. squeaking it out at home.

Why Brooke is taking the Buccaneers: Earning their way to the top of the uninspiring NFC South a week ago, the Buccaneers control their own destiny. The quest to winning the division for the third straight year proceeds with a trip to Lambeau. The Bucs and Packers are both too inconsistent to truly feel good about picking either team. However, Rachaad White continuing his hot streak (six TDs in last six games) could prove to be monumental against Green Bay’s bottom-three run defense. Match that with a version of Baker Mayfield that has exceled on the road in 2023, and the Bucs can outduel a Packers team that can’t seem to get all of its playmakers on the field at once.

Why Gennaro is taking the Dolphins: Did Tyreek Hill actually strengthen his dark-horse MVP candidacy by missing half of this past Monday night’s brutal loss with an ankle injury? Miami’s offense was stuck in the mud without “Cheetah” roaming the field, underscoring the notion that the wideout is the true engine of the Dolphins’ top-ranked attack. With a short turnaround before this week’s divisional bout, will Hill be active on Sunday? And if so, will he be compromised? The Jets’ defense remains elite, having held each of its last two opponents below 200 yards, while the offense just got an undeniable bump from Zach Wilson‘s return to the lineup. I’m still riding with the home team here, but I do NOT envision a repeat of the three-touchdown beatdown Miami delivered to New York three weeks ago, during Gang Green’s brief Tim Boyle era.

Why Ali is taking the Giants: What do Daniel Jones and the New Orleans Saints have in common? Neither can be thrilled about what Tommy DeVito has put on tape in recent weeks. The unheralded undrafted rookie has led the G-Men to three consecutive wins, capturing the hearts of millions of New Yorkers along the way. Suddenly anything seems possible for this club, including taking down a second playoff contender in as many weeks — this time on the road. To keep the streak alive, the Giants will need more heady, mistake-free play from their new star signal-caller, while forcing the opposition to do the opposite. Since Week 10 — Tommy D’s first start — New York leads the league in takeaways (14) and turnover differential (10), while the Saints rank in the bottom third in both categories. Giants score yet another upset, making the improbable slightly more possible.

Why Gennaro is taking the Titans: From what we know at publishing, wunderkind quarterback C.J. Stroud remains in concussion protocol. That’s obviously the most significant Texans ailment, but it’s not the only one. Fellow rookie sensation Tank Dell suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago. Last week, in addition to Stroud, WR Nico Collins, DE Will Anderson Jr., LB Blake Cashman and CB Tavierre Thomas all left the game with health issues. Wednesday’s injury report reads like a who’s who of foundational pieces. So, with Houston smack dab in the middle of a particularly thorny stretch — the schedule’s only instance of back-to-back road games — these young, upstart Texans are far from whole. Did I mention the Titans have been markedly better at home? Oh, and Tennessee freight train Derrick Henry has eclipsed 200 yards rushing in four of his past five games against Houston. And I’m thinking DeAndre Hopkins will be looking to show out against his old team. Just a lot of bad juju around the Texans here.

Why Ali is taking the Chiefs: The Patriots’ long-awaited offensive breakout finally arrived last Thursday, when they scored as many touchdowns (three) in the first half at Pittsburgh as they had in their previous four games combined. And while the scoring was short-lived — they punted on five of their six second-half possessions, with an INT mixed in — it’s not like the Chiefs have been lighting up scoreboards this season, either. (At least not in the way we’ve grown to expect.) New England’s defense is feisty enough to cause Kansas City some continued frustration, but I have have complete confidence in Patrick Mahomes preventing the first three-game losing streak of his career. And a lot less confidence in Bailey Zappe picking apart Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. So on Sunday, I’ll take the dynasty that is over the dynasty that was.

Why Brooke is taking the 49ers: The first team to clinch a playoff berth, San Francisco is sitting pretty with an MVP candidate at quarterback heading into the final stretch. Brock Purdy is leading the most consistently great offense in the NFL, as the 49ers have won nine games this season by 12 points or more. There’s not much the Cardinals, even coming off an extra week of rest, can do to slow these Niners. Yes, Arizona upset the Steelers, who currently hold the AFC’s sixth seed, last time out, but San Francisco is a whole other animal.

Why Ali is taking the Rams: Since their Week 10 bye, the Rams have been playing some of the most complete football of any team in the league. They had won three straight before coming up just short at Baltimore last Sunday in a wild back-and-forth battle with the AFC front-runner. Washington, on the other hand, entered its Week 14 break having lost six of seven, including four in a row by an average of 20 points. The Commanders likely needed the time away to regroup and recharge, but unless they somehow solved their season-long protection issues during the last two weeks, I don’t see that suddenly happening this weekend against Aaron Donald and Co. The Rams win comfortably, as Matthew Stafford continues his run of monster performances for another week.

Why Gennaro is taking the Bills: Is a wide-open MVP race there for Josh Allen‘s taking? Allen’s counterpart in this game, Dak Prescott, is currently a leading candidate for the award, pacing the NFL with 28 touchdown passes. But Allen quietly leads the league in total touchdowns with 35. Now, what if Allen knocks off Prescott in the comfy, outdoor confines of Highmark Stadium? Remember, the Cowboys are a dominant 7-0 at home, but just 3-3 on the road — and Dak’s personal performance reflects that discrepancy. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s quarterback has been a conquering hero at home. So, let’s say Allen and Co. get the job done on Sunday. The Bills finish out the season with a pair of bottom-dwellers (the Chargers and Patriots) before the finale in Miami, which could be the marquee matchup of Week 18. If Allen closes the campaign on a tear, leading Buffalo back from the dead and into the postseason with five straight wins, that’d give him a pretty decent case for MVP honors, no?

Why Tom is taking the Ravens: The Jags rank better than the Ravens in two categories: passing offense (Jacksonville is ninth and the Baltimore is 19th) and rushing defense (Jacksonville is fourth and Baltimore is 12th). Even with Trevor Lawrence fully participating in practice again, I don’t think it’ll be enough against a Ravens team that is limiting its opponents to 4.3 yards per offensive play and outscoring them by an average of 11 points.

MONDAY, DEC. 18

Why Tom is taking the Eagles: Philly could use a breather after a pair of blowout losses to fellow NFC heavyweights San Francisco and Dallas. It’s a bit bizarre to think of a game in Seattle — which is still 4-2 at home — as a chance to get right. But the Seahawks’ 28th-ranked defense must look awfully appealing to Jalen Hurts and Co., who have faced top-seven units in four of their past five games. Philadelphia’s struggling defense might feel the same way about Seattle’s 20th-ranked offense, especially if Drew Lock starts at QB again.

ALREADY COMPLETED

Why Brooke is taking the Lions: Offensive turnovers and a defensive letdown have hurt Detroit in recent weeks, while the Broncos have experienced nearly the opposite. Denver is playing relatively clean football and possesses a defense that has dominated in the second half of the season, ranking second in scoring (15.6 points per game allowed) and first in takeaways (18) since Week 7. No matter which direction these teams are trending, though, I could see this tilt going either way. There’s a lot on the line: The Broncos are currently on the outside of the playoff field, but are one of six AFC teams sitting at 7-6. The Lions entered the week as the NFC’s third seed, but their grip on the NFC North is loosening. It feels like a toss-up. I’ll ride with the home team.

Why Tom is taking the Colts: In their past seven games, the Steelers have completed just four pass plays of 30-plus yards. The Colts have at least one such play in all but one game this season, perhaps justifying my sense that they feel like the more potent big-play threat, even though the teams are pretty evenly matched in yards per offensive play (5.2 for Indy, 4.9 for Pittsburgh) and total plays of 20-plus yards (46 for Indy, 42 for Pittsburgh). I’ll take my chances on Indianapolis’ sometimes-messy, sometimes-capable attack at home over a Steelers squad that has, frankly, failed me two weeks in a row.

Why Brooke is taking the Bengals: Minnesota is handing the keys to yet another quarterback (Nick Mullens) this season. Kevin O’Connell had to change something after last week’s dud. Mullens, whose last start came in Week 15 of 2021, apparently will have Justin Jefferson back on the field, but will that be enough? It doesn’t feel all that promising, considering Jake Browning and the Bengals have scored 34 points in back-to-back wins. Shoot, even if Brian Flores’ defense continues its stingy streak — allowing just 15 points per game since Week 6 (tops in the NFL) — can Minnesota’s offense even score enough to exceed that low bar?

Why Ali is taking the Raiders: The Chargers scored as many touchdowns (one) in Easton Stick‘s two quarters of work last Sunday as they had with Justin Herbert at the controls for their previous 10. I don’t say that at all to suggest the team is better off with the untested backup under center — rather, that L.A.’s offense had been struggling of late even with its franchise QB. Not that the Raiders have fared any better. Yes, they were historically bad last weekend. But that wasn’t an isolated event. The Aidan O’Connell-led club hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any game since hanging 30 on the Giants in Week 9 — Antonio Pierce’s head-coaching debut. So if you can’t trust either of the offenses on Thursday night (which all but guarantees we’ll get another surprisingly lively affair), and the defenses are essentially a toss-up, then I’ll take the home team and the man with six(!) NFL starts to his name over the road team trotting out a first-timer.

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