Week 13 NFL picks: Who wins epic matchup between 49ers and Eagles? Will Broncos stay hot in Houston?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday’s game and the rest of their Week 13 picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 30 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, DEC. 3

Why Dan is taking the Chargers: The Bolts appear to be lost. I’m still picking them against a Patriots team plunging to new depths on a weekly basis and perhaps trying out a different starting quarterback. Brandon Staley couldn’t ask for a better get-right chance than this one. Then again, maybe Bill Belichick is looking at Staley’s squad and sensing the same sort of opportunity for New England, which was last seen falling victim to Tommy DeVito. The potential to field a somewhat-competent offense gives the advantage to Justin Herbert and Co., but they haven’t played at that level in a couple weeks.

Why Brooke is taking the Lions: I’m chalking my Lions pick up to simple math. Despite the Saints ranking ninth in scoring defense this season at 20.2 points per game, they have allowed 24.3 points per game and 358.3 yards per game since Week 6 (both 27th in the NFL). Offensively, New Orleans has reached 20 points once in its last three games (a home win over Chicago). On the flip side, Detroit’s averaging 26.7 points per game this season. Recent history is also on the visiting team’s side. Since this time last season, the Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last four outings when they’ve had nine-plus days of rest between games.

Why Tom is taking the Falcons: The Jets officially opened Aaron Rodgers’ 21-day practice window, meaning the four-time MVP is amazingly eligible to return at any time now, less than three months after tearing his Achilles. But we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. For now, let’s deal in what we know. Desmond Ridder hasn’t finished a game with more TDs than turnovers since Week 5. Am I worried about how he’ll perform against a Jets defense that ranks sixth against the pass and seventh in takeaways? Sure. But I’m much more worried about New York’s ability to muster enough offense to capitalize on those mistakes. Atlanta’s advantage on the ground (Bijan Robinson and Co. rank fourth in rushing, while the Jets’ run defense ranks 31st) clinches this one.

Why Tom is taking the Steelers: The Steelers have been winning games they probably should’ve lost all season. If Week 12’s encouraging performance means they’ll be combining that mojo with some actual offensive competence, look out. Arizona has been better since Kyler Murray‘s return, but not by a huge margin, ranking 22nd in points per game (18.3), 20th in yards per game (321) and 17th in passing yards per game (215) since Week 10. And the Cardinals’ defense has continued to be a problem. I’ll take the Steelers to log their second straight old-fashioned victory (actually tallying more yards than the other team).

Why Ali is taking the Colts: The Colts, in the midst of a three-game win streak, are 4-1 away from Indy (just 2-4 at home), while the Titans are 4-0 in Nashville (but winless on the road). Something’s gotta give for one of these clubs. I’m looking at you, Tennessee. Shane Steichen’s defense has smothered three subpar offenses in consecutive weeks, which signals trouble for a Titans unit that ranks near the bottom in nearly every major offensive category. Even though Gardner Minshew‘s turnover troubles have resurfaced of late, and he’ll again be without Jonathan Taylor, veteran Zack Moss has proven capable of carrying the run game (including against Tennessee). If the Colts can win the line of scrimmage, and I think they can, they hold on to a wild-card spot for another week.

Why Tom is taking the Dolphins: Thanks to the Commanders’ occasional scrappiness and the Dolphins’ occasional fickleness, one might be able to glimpse the faint outlines of a potential upset in the ol’ crystal ball. But it’s probably just a smudgy fingerprint. Washington currently seems to be in a tailspin, having lost three in a row, including its last two by a combined score of 76-29. Miami just looks too potent for the Commanders, who are only able to hang with elite offenses from Philadelphia for some reason.

Why Gennaro is taking the Texans: For the third straight Sunday, the Texans are playing at home in Houston. And rookie sensation C.J. Stroud sure seems to have taken a liking to NRG Stadium. Just check out the prolific passer’s splits:

• Stroud at home (6 games): 333.2 ypg, 9.1 ypa, 15:4 TD-to-INT ratio, 109.4 passer rating.
• Stroud on the road (5 games): 253.4 ypg, 7.4 ypa, 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio, 89.9 passer rating.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have spent the past month-plus fattening up in their own comfy confines, as four victories in their current five-game win streak came at Mile High. But now Denver’s kicking off the rare three-game road trip. So, in a battle of the first two teams out of the current AFC playoff field, gimme the wunderkind in his happy place.

Why Gennaro is taking the Panthers: It’s hard to argue Carolina isn’t the NFL’s worst team. The No. 1 overall pick is struggling, the head coach just got fired 11 games into his tenure and the Panthers remain the only organization without multiple wins this season. So, what am I doing here besides banking on the randomness of a parity-driven league? Well, lost in the shuffle of the franchise tumult and disappointment around the anemic, Bryce Young-led offense, Ejiro Evero’s defense has rounded into form following the team’s mid-October bye. Since Week 8, Carolina is tied for first in yards per play allowed (4.3) while ranking third in total defense (259.4 ypg). Not to mention, this week’s opponent isn’t exactly lighting the league on fire itself. After getting out to a surprising 3-1 start, Tampa has dropped six of its past seven games and is pretty banged up on both sides of the ball. So an upset here would hardly be shocking. These are the bottom two teams in the NFL’s worst division, after all.

Why Dan is taking the Rams: The Browns would be a playoff team if the season ended today — which is more than the Rams can say — but Kevin Stefanski’s squad might be coming to the wrong place at the wrong time. Kyren Williams went off last week in his return from an ankle injury, with Los Angeles gashing the Cardinals for a season-high 228 yards rushing. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s stellar defense has fallen on less-favorable times, especially against the run (341 rush yards allowed since Week 11, tied for most in the league during that span). Can Dorian Thompson-Robinson, if he clears concussion protocol, or Joe Flacco (yes, you read that right) save the Browns? I’m going to say no, not against a Rams defense playing good ball.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: Flacco will start on Sunday for the Browns, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.

Why Brooke is taking the Eagles: There are a million different storylines to discuss — the 10-win Eagles being an underdog at home is certainly a big one — and touching on very few in this space is such a disservice. Yet here we are. There is a lot of talk surrounding Brock Purdy‘s post-bye resurgence and the 49ers’ return to Philadelphia, but to me, this game is all about Jalen Hurts and whether he can continue being unfazed against the league’s No. 1 scoring defense. Few QBs are playing better than Hurts over the last six weeks. He’s scored 17 total touchdowns in that span and orchestrated second-half rallies to defeat the likes of the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills in consecutive games. It also appears the Eagles could get Lane Johnson back — and potentially Dallas Goedert, one of Hurts’ most reliable targets. Even if they don’t, Hurts has won five straight games when trailing by 10 or more at any point.

Why Dan is taking the Chiefs: I’m not sure if the Chiefs’ long-awaited offensive breakthrough in the second half last week will carry over to this Super Bowl I rematch. I do trust their defense, though, even against an improving Jordan Love. December trips to Lambeau Field generally aren’t pleasant for the visiting team, and I expect that to be the case for Kansas City on Sunday night. The going could be tough for Patrick Mahomes again, but Steve Spagnuolo’s D — which ranks in the top five in scoring defense, yards allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game and sacks — will make enough plays to get the job done.

MONDAY, DEC. 4

Why Ali is taking the Jaguars: This cat clash and Bro Bowl would’ve had a lot more juice three weeks ago, when it was also a battle between former No. 1 picks. Unlike my favorite Coach Taylor (coincidentally, also the leader of a cat-mascot team — two, actually), Zac isn’t about to will his QB2-turned-QB1 to a championship run. That’s not to say Jake Browning didn’t have his moments last week: In his first NFL start, he produced the week’s top CPOE (9.1%) and fourth-best yards per attempt (8.7), per Next Gen Stats. But the Bengals struggled to sustain drives and avoid costly mistakes. The most troubling stat, though, was Joe Mixon‘s measly 16 yards on eight carries. Expect the Jaguars and their fourth-ranked rush defense to target a similar result on Sunday. While Cincinnati’s skill players are talented enough to elevate their inexperienced passer, enabling the Bengals to hang around in this one, they simply can’t overcome the disparity at the QB position. Taking the Jags with clear eyes and a full heart. Can’t lose?

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Gennaro is taking the Cowboys: Ever since it opened back in 2009, the Cowboys’ home stadium has been one of the most wondrous facilities in football. But Jerry World hasn’t always been accommodating to Jerry’s team. In fact, over the first seven years of the building’s existence, Dallas actually had a better record on the road (30-26) than at home (27-29), spawning banter that the glitzy gridiron cathedral was too big a tourist attraction to ever provide a real home-field advantage. Welp, that narrative’s dead these days, as Dallas currently boasts a 13-game home winning streak spanning back to Week 2 of last season. In 2023, the ‘Boys have yet to trail for even one second in AT&T Stadium, winning all five of their home games by 20-plus points. Significantly better on both sides of the ball than Seattle, Dallas keeps the good times rolling in Arlington.

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