Week 11 NFL picks: Steelers or Browns in AFC North bout? Who wins Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl rematch?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday’s game and the rest of their Week 11 picks below.

NOTES:

1. Teams on bye: Colts, Falcons, Patriots, Saints.
2. The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 16 unless otherwise noted below.
3. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
4. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, NOV. 19

Why Brooke is taking the Cowboys: Dallas is averaging 33.7 points per game against opponents with a losing record this season. And against all opponents, the Cowboys’ defense is allowing 18.3 points per game (fourth in the NFL) and 275.1 total yards per game (third). Saying this is a tall order for the Panthers doesn’t really do the challenge justice, especially after Bryce Young was outplayed by an undrafted rookie a week ago.

Why Ali is taking the Browns: For all the football purists out there, have I got a classic, ground-and-pound matchup for ya! The Browns have relied on the same simple-but-effective formula all season: run the ball, control the clock, play lockdown defense. They’re 6-3 because they rank among the best in all three areas. The Steelers, however, have only recently revived their rushing attack, winning three of four in the process:

• Weeks 1-6: 23.4 att/g, 3.4 y/att, 0 TDs
• Weeks 7-10: 28.3 att/g, 4.7 y/att, 6 TDs

While Kenny Pickett and Dorian Thompson-Robinson figure to take a backseat on their respective backfield-driven buses on Sunday, whichever of the two best plays passenger, fighting the temptation to grab the wheel, navigates his team to a huge AFC North win. I’m leaning cautiously toward the rookie, who’s picked up a couple things in the month and a half since his first career start.

Why Tom is taking the Lions: Presuming he returns to the field as planned, Justin Fields could put in a solid day of work against a Lions defense that gave up 421 yards to the Chargers in Week 10 and 503 yards to the Ravens in Week 7. I’m not sure how much that will matter, considering Chicago ranks 27th in points allowed and Detroit ranks sixth in points scored. The only other time the Bears faced a team that currently ranks in the top 10 in scoring this season, they were rolled by the Chargers. The Lions win their seventh straight NFC North matchup.

Why Dan is taking the Chargers: In the end, I don’t think the combination of the dreaded 1 p.m. ET start for a West Coast team and a defense that stumbled badly in Week 10 will be enough to sink the Chargers. Threatening offenses have given Brandon Staley’s team trouble this year, but the Packers — who last scored more than 20 points on Sept. 17 — are not going to strike fear into anyone.

Why Gennaro is taking the Cardinals: At this moment in time, no NFL player is more MUST-SEE TV than C.J. Stroud. Two autumns ago, the other quarterback in this game held similar box-office appeal. Remember when Kyler Murray had the 2021 Cardinals out to an NFL-best 7-0 start, fueling MVP chatter with his dynamic playmaking prowess? Seems like eons ago, right? Since that high point, Murray’s been plagued by injuries and lampooned over an ill-fated contract clause, while the Cards have undergone a full regime change and significant roster turnover. Consequently, it was easy to forget about Murray’s special abilities. Then he returned to action last Sunday, ran circles around the defense and deftly guided Arizona to a comeback win. This Sunday, I expect both gifted signal-callers to put on a show, with the forgotten elder statesman ultimately besting the toast-of-the-league rookie because NFL scripts are made to be flipped.

Why Ali is taking the Jaguars: The glimmer from Will Levis‘ NFL debut has dimmed some after two underwhelming showings, and a third straight road trip hardly seems like what the rookie needs. A consistent ground game would be nice, though. Don’t see that happening this weekend — not against a Jacksonville squad that’s been one of the stingiest against the run this season (last week’s nightmare effort aside). On the other side of the ball, Doug Pederson keeps true to his word, as the Jags dial up — and connect — on more shot plays Sunday. Jacksonville gets a much-needed course correction, while Tennessee remains winless away from Nashville (0-6 entering this game).

Why Ali is taking the Dolphins: Three games against winning teams. Three losses. The narrative remains unchanged for Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins. Maybe the 5-5 Raiders are just the stepping stone Miami needs en route to finally capturing a win over a contender. Now, Antonio Pierce and Co. have no plans of being stepped on or over, but the first-time head coach will find the test awaiting him in South Beach to be far different than the impotent New York offenses his group handled on the Strip. The Dolphins are 10-2 at Hard Rock Stadium under McDaniel, using dominant first-half performances (+109 margin) to force opposing offenses — desperate to keep pace — into point-chasing mistakes. In fact, since the start of last season, the Fins have surrendered nearly two fewer touchdowns per game at home than they have on the road (14.1 vs. 26.6). Expect the trend to continue this weekend, with Miami’s fresh (and very fast) legs scoring early and often, enabling Vic Fangio to do his thing in the second half.

Why Gennaro is taking the Commanders: Each defensive coordinator heads into this game with a freshly bruised ego. In last Sunday’s narrow defeat at Seattle, Jack Del Rio’s Commanders gave up 489 yards — the most Washington has surrendered since its days as The Football Team. Stunningly, Wink Martindale’s Giants made that total look positively stingy during their blowout loss at Dallas, yielding a whopping 640 yards — the most New York has surrendered since its days at the Polo Grounds. Can’t imagine this week’s practice has been fun for either unit, but Del Rio’s troops get the ultimate salve this Sunday: a date with the NFL’s worst offense.

Why Dan is taking the 49ers: The 49ers appear to be back. However, the Bucs are coming off a bounce-back game of their own with last week’s romp over the Titans. I’m not smelling an upset here, though. Tampa Bay is a scrappy bunch with the potential to hang around, but I’ll go with the team that just made the AFC South-leading Jaguars look like a pack of lost kittens. San Francisco’s defense is too good to have a hiccup against Baker Mayfield and Co.

Why Dan is taking the Bills: Under different circumstances, I would worry about Buffalo looking ahead to its meat-grinder of an upcoming schedule, with road games against the Eagles and Chiefs sandwiching a Week 13 bye. But the Bills, of all teams, should know better than to take this opponent lightly, especially given Buffalo’s own current struggles. Josh Allen has a 79.0 passer rating in his career versus Gang Green (lowest against any opponent, min. three starts) and has lost two of his last three against New York, including the Week 1 heartbreaker. I don’t expect it to be pretty, but if Sean McDermott’s defense doesn’t rise to the occasion against Zach Wilson, I think we can say goodbye to the Bills’ reign in the AFC East.

Why Brooke is taking the Rams: Matthew Stafford is expected to return after injuring his right thumb in Week 8 — great news for a Rams team that’s been almost unwatchable with its backups, quickly dropping in the playoff race. Facing a team that Stafford is undefeated against as the starter since 2021 should inspire the confidence this group needs to get back on track. The Rams aren’t likely to torch Seattle like they did in Week 1, due to Stafford’s thumb, as well as L.A.’s iffy rushing attack and pass rush of late — not to mention, a Geno Smith-led Seahawks offense that is slowly putting it all together. Seattle’s defense could pose problems if it regularly pressures Stafford — inherently throwing off timing between the veteran and his star pass-catching duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua — but I think L.A. does just enough to eke out the win for the season sweep.

Why Gennaro is taking the Vikings: There’s no question this is the least-anticipated island game on this week’s prime-time slate. There’s also no question this matchup looks far juicier than it did just a few weeks ago. Back in mid-October, Denver appeared completely hopeless at 1-5, well on its way to a fourth straight season of double-digit losses. But Sean Payton has rallied the Broncos since then, with Denver taking three straight, including a 15-point win vs. the Chiefs and a Monday night road triumph over the Bills. Meanwhile, everyone left the Vikings for dead after Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury. But then Josh Dobbs rode into town and white-knighted Minnesota to consecutive victories, extending the NFL’s longest active win streak to five games. So, who do you roll with in a showdown of plucky upstarts? The road underdog, of course.

MONDAY, NOV. 20

Why Brooke is taking the Chiefs: We’ve had this game circled since the schedule was released back in May. Now that we’re here, it feels like the Super Bowl LVII rematch will really live up to the hype. These teams are similar roster-wise to the ones we saw in February, but there’s been a big shift in performance in Kansas City, with the offense averaging its fewest points (23.1) in the Patrick Mahomes era and struggling to find a consistent pass game, while the defense has morphed into the team’s best unit on that side of the ball in a decade. Andy Reid, Mahomes and Co. always seem to figure it out, no matter how grim the situation may look. This week’s challenge: the team with the league’s best record. I firmly believe this is the game in which Mahomes and the offense get right, and I see K.C.’s second-ranked scoring defense stymieing Philly, setting the tone for a ferocious stretch run. Home-field advantage also feels like a big factor in this Monday night gem.

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Tom is taking the Ravens: For the purposes of making this pick, I’m not going to pay too much attention to Baltimore’s collapse against Cleveland in Week 10 — the Ravens remain one of the most formidable teams in the league, with a set of strengths (top-ranked scoring defense, top-ranked ground game, superstar QB) that should give them a chance to win most times out. The Bengals need this one, but I just don’t trust them as much as the home team here, especially with Tee Higgins already being ruled out.

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