The First Read, Divisional Round: Biggest immediate question for advancing/eliminated NFL playoff teams

How do the Ravens avoid a repeat of 2019? 

By remembering that this is a different team heading into this postseason. In 2019, the Ravens had the top seed in the AFC — and really the best squad in the league — until the Tennessee Titans upset them in the Divisional Round by forcing quarterback Lamar Jackson to beat them from the pocket. That tactic isn’t going to fly this time around for the opposition. Jackson has shown tremendous growth as a passer, and the Ravens’ offense has flourished under the guidance of first-year coordinator Todd Monken. There are plenty of receivers who can make plays after the catch. The running game is the best in football, with Jackson and a variety of backs capable of doing their own damage. If that isn’t enough, Baltimore’s top-ranked scoring defense has become more disruptive with each passing week, as blowout wins over the 49ers and Dolphins late in the regular season proved. The 2019 campaign was a missed opportunity for the Ravens. It’s hard to see them imploding in the Divisional Round with this current group.

Can the Bills trust Josh Allen?

The most encouraging aspect of Buffalo’s 31-17 win over Pittsburgh was the restraint Allen displayed in that contest. He made the typical plays with his arm (three touchdown passes) and his legs (52-yard TD run) but boneheaded errors were nowhere to be found. That obviously is a critical element for any postseason success the Bills hope to enjoy. After all, Allen led the NFL in total touchdowns while ranking second in giveaways and there’s ample evidence of how much this team’s fortunes hinge on his whims. The best thing about his play in the second half of this season has been his willingness to buy into the strategies of offensive coordinator Joe Brady, which include far more touches for running back James Cook. The Bills used that approach to jump out to a 21-0 lead against the Steelers, an advantage that allowed Allen to be less reckless with the football. It is important to note here that Allen tends to play his best football at this time of year. He’s now thrown 20 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in nine postseason games. He’ll need to be similarly efficient when facing Kansas City in the next round. The Bills beat the Chiefs earlier this season because Cook thrived and Allen made enough big plays while also limiting the costly mistakes. Buffalo can advance to the AFC title game if it’s able to repeat that successful formula.

Do the Chiefs have enough offense to reach their sixth straight AFC Championship Game?

There are two ways to look at the Chiefs right now. The first is to say they’re showing obvious improvement with their offense based on how much of a mess this group was just three weeks ago, when the Las Vegas Raiders bullied them in a 20-14 loss on Christmas Day. Kansas City is playing cleaner football and more of the offensive load has been put on the shoulders of second-year RB Isiah Pacheco and rookie WR Rashee Rice. Those two players were the standouts in Kansas City’s 26-7 wild-card win over Miami — Pacheco ran for 89 yards and a score, while Rice had eight receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown — and they’ll have to be equally productive (at least) in the Divisional Round. That’s because the other way to look at these Chiefs is to say they’re beating up on lesser competition. The Dolphins came into that wild-card game missing five defensive starters and every significant edge rusher who started the season. The Bengals, whom Kansas City beat in Week 17 before resting starters in the season finale against the Rams, ranked 31st in the league in yards allowed this season. Remember this stat: The Chiefs kicked a combined six field goals and scored three touchdowns on nine red zone trips in those games against Miami and Cincinnati. So while it’s great to see them embracing the idea of winning ugly and relying on a strong defense, they’ll need to cross the goal line more often to advance beyond the Divisional Round.

Are the 2023 Texans going to be the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals? 

The similarities are real. Those Bengals had a young, talented quarterback named Joe Burrow setting the tone for a team sorely in need of confidence and faith. These Texans have rookie C.J. Stroud doing exactly the same thing. Those Bengals had an underrated defense that forced a slew of postseason turnovers on their way to winning the AFC. These Texans just returned two interceptions for touchdowns in their 45-14 wild-card win over Cleveland on Saturday. If you want to talk coaches, Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor won a division crown with a team that had endured five straight losing seasons. Houston’s DeMeco Ryans claimed the AFC South this season after the Texans won all of 11 games combined over the three previous years. But here’s the main thing that makes Houston as scary as Cincinnati was two years ago: These young Texans don’t fear anybody. The Browns had one of the most disruptive defenses in football coming into Saturday, and Stroud lit them up from the jump. That should be a wake-up call for every other team in this postseason. The Texans aren’t merely happy to be here. They clearly believe they can do their fair share of damage with this opportunity. 

Will anybody in the NFC challenge the 49ers? 

That’s a fair question, given how much San Francisco rolled through the conference. This team had five losses and only two came against NFC opponents, a Week 7 setback at Minnesota (when the 49ers were dealing with injuries to key offensive players like left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Deebo Samuel) and a season-ending defeat to the Rams (when San Francisco rested several starters). Now consider the wins over NFC playoff teams. The 49ers beat the Cowboys by 32 points, the Eagles by 23 and the Buccaneers by 13. The Rams are the only team that gave them trouble — San Francisco won the Week 2 contest, 30-23 — and they were eliminated by the Lions on Sunday. All that said, the Packers just pulled an impressive upset in Dallas, while the Lions can match the 49ers’ physical nature in the trenches. But can any of those teams go to San Francisco and get a win? It’s hard to see that happening. The Niners are simply too loaded on offense, too stout on defense and too eager to make up for losing in last year’s NFC title game. 

Is fate smiling on the Lions? 

What a difference a couple weeks make. Dan Campbell’s head was about to explode when a controversial penalty on a two-point conversion resulted in his team losing in Dallas in Week 17. That defeat led to Detroit being the third seed in the NFC playoffs and the Cowboys receiving the No. 2 slot. The Lions don’t have to worry about that disadvantage anymore, not with their 24-23 win over the Rams coming just hours after Dallas lost to Green Bay on Sunday. Now the narrative isn’t solely about the Lions winning the NFC North for the first time in three decades or earning their first playoff win in 32 years; it’s about how far this team can go with another home game coming this weekend. Quarterback Jared Goff looked up for the task (22-27, 277 yards, one touchdown), as he outdueled Matthew Stafford to get the win. The Detroit defense was clutch, as well, as it didn’t allow the potent Rams offense to score a touchdown on three red zone attempts. The Lions were more than ready for the brighter spotlight of the postseason. Their next step is proving they can capitalize on another home playoff game.

Can Baker Mayfield lead his team to an upset in Detroit?

This has been quite the season for Mayfield, as he silenced a lot of critics who thought he was finished. He won the job in Tampa Bay, helped the Buccaneers win their third straight NFC South title and then became the first quarterback in franchise history to throw for 300-plus yards and three-plus touchdowns in a playoff game (he had 337 and three scores in Monday’s 32-9 win over Philadelphia). Mayfield will face a tougher challenge when Tampa Bay travels to Detroit for the Divisional Round, but you have to imagine he’ll be up for the challenge. He’s helped the Bucs win six of their last seven games since they sat at 4-7 and faced legitimate questions about their postseason chances. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions on Sunday night, although Detroit’s defense tightened in the red zone. The Bucs have the weapons to do similar damage — with wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin being especially dangerous — but the game will come down to Mayfield’s ability to deliver yet again. He produced the best season of his career after landing on his fourth team in less than 12 months. Mayfield will need to be even more impressive to help Tampa Bay land a spot in the NFC Championship Game.

Can the Packers keep this up?  

The one thing you can always count on with young teams is being unable to predict how they’ll perform. For Exhibit A, we give you the Green Bay Packers. This bunch has gone from 2-1 to 3-6 to 6-6 to 6-8 to 9-8. This writer thought they would get run out of Dallas in Sunday’s wild-card game because of that inconsistency and Green Bay’s recent defensive struggles. The Packers wound up stifling the league’s highest-scoring team and winning in a 48-32 rout that wasn’t even as close as that final score might lead you to believe. So, how does one evaluate the Packers heading into San Francisco? Let’s start with quarterback Jordan Love. Dude is for real. He finished the regular season with 18 touchdown passes and only one interception in his final eight games, six of which resulted in Green Bay wins. He followed that up by completing 16 of his 21 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys on Sunday. It helps that his supporting cast is delivering — Romeo Doubs had 151 receiving yards and a touchdown, while Aaron Jones ran for 118 yards and three scores — but Love clearly is blossoming into a star. The even bigger surprise on Sunday was the play of the Packers’ defense. That unit had problems in December with Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Carolina’s Bryce Young, so it seemed likely that Dak Prescott would generate big numbers. So much for that sentiment. The Packers embarrassed a ton of skeptics. It will be much harder to do that again in San Francisco. 

Is Mike McCarthy the right man for the Cowboys? 

It’s time to have a hard conversation about that in Dallas, especially after owner Jerry Jones said he was “floored” by his team’s wild-card loss to Green Bay. For all the success Mike McCarthy has enjoyed over the last three years — a run that includes two NFC East titles and three 12-5 seasons — he simply can’t move this team deep into the playoffs. The Cowboys have one postseason victory in his four seasons, and this latest defeat was easily the most disturbing. Dallas came into Sunday’s contest riding a 16-game home winning streak. They wound up looking ill-prepared to deal with a Packers team that was ready to scrap as soon as the game kicked off. The Cowboys faced a 27-0 deficit at one point in the first half, which was mind-boggling, given that this team averaged 37 points per game at home this season and Green Bay’s defense had been abysmal for most of the 2023 campaign. Jones has supported McCarthy plenty in the past. Does that change now that he’s endured his third straight soul-crushing postseason defeat with McCarthy at the helm? The marketplace is stocked with a number of strong head coaches, a group that includes Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Mike Vrabel and Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh. It didn’t make sense for Jones to take a chance on a less-proven commodity before. Now that his Cowboys have lost once again — in a year when they held the No. 2 seed and it wasn’t the 49ers knocking them off — it might be time to think about a new head man.

Will Deshaun Watson deliver for this team? 

Joe Flacco was the best and the worst thing that could’ve happened to the Cleveland Browns. He was great because he obviously helped this team reach the playoffs by leading it to four wins out of the five regular-season games he started. He was problematic because his success — after sitting at home for basically the first three months this season — magnified the issues surrounding Watson. This was supposed to be the year when Deshaun turned the corner and reminded people of why the Browns gave him a $230 million fully guaranteed contract. Instead, he gave us even more reasons to wonder if this marriage will actually work. Flacco looked incredibly comfortable running the offense of head coach Kevin Stefanski with limited experience, while Watson has rarely found a rhythm to indicate he’s trending back toward being a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback. You can argue that the Browns sustained major hits to their supporting cast — including season-ending injuries to running back Nick Chubb and both starting offensive tackles — and that Watson was done in by an issue with his shoulder that landed him on injured reserve, as well. The truth is that Flacco found a way to thrive with that diminished supporting cast until he bottomed out in a turnover-filled playoff loss in Houston on Saturday. We all know the Browns can’t afford to give up on Watson at this stage. What is worth questioning is if he really can take this offense to the heights that Flacco attained so easily.

How do the Eagles recover from this season’s meltdown?

Philadelphia’s collapse was epic in too many ways to summarize here. The first question to ask is apparent: How did a team that once sat at 10-1, only one season removed from a Super Bowl appearance, drop six of its last seven games, including Monday night’s 32-9 loss to Tampa Bay? The next question after that is even more critical: Is there a simple way to fix all that was broken? It doesn’t feel that way today. The Eagles have defensive problems that require serious personnel changes, especially in the secondary and at linebacker. They might have to say farewell to some veteran leaders, including center Jason Kelce, defensive end Brandon Graham and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. (EDITOR’S UPDATE: NFL Network Insider Mike Garafolo reports that Kelce has informed teammates he’s retiring.) The coaching situation needs to be addressed on both sides of the football as well, as the departures of former coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon eventually caught up with the team. This is no longer a situation where executive vice president/general manager Howie Roseman can simply pull off some impressive personnel moves and wait for this team to start dominating. There’s still plenty of talent on the roster, but a team once known for clutch play and strong leadership lost its identity in a hurry. It’s up to Roseman and head coach Nick Sirianni to redefine what the team will be about when next season begins.

Is Tua Tagovailoa worthy of a massive contract extension? 

Like Watson in Cleveland, Tagovailoa will enter next year with lingering questions about how high the Dolphins can fly with him under center. The good news is that he at least is trending in the right direction. Tagovailoa is coming off a career year in Miami, as he earned Pro Bowl honors after throwing for a league-high 4,624 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Most importantly, he played a full season for the first time since entering the NFL as the fifth overall pick in the 2020 draft. Now comes the hard part: Should Miami turn him into one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league? The Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, but you must wonder how eager they are to drop a contract worth an average of $50 million per year on him. Of the six players who currently belong in that club, only one hasn’t won a Most Valuable Player and/or appeared in a Super Bowl to date (the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert). Tagovailoa had the look of a player who might be capable of ascending to that level earlier this season, but his last three weeks have been horrible. The Dolphins lost when the top seed in the AFC playoffs was on the line (a 56-19 beating at Baltimore), the AFC East title was up for grabs (a 21-14 home defeat to Buffalo) and in Super Wild Card Weekend (a 26-7 loss to Kansas City). Tagovailoa averaged a meager 203 passing yards while throwing four touchdowns and five interceptions in those contests. Do we also need to mention Miami only beat one team with a winning record all year? There’s a lot to like about Tua on a rookie deal. It might be a different story if he becomes one of the league’s wealthiest players.

How do the Rams build on this season? 

This season didn’t end the way the Rams hoped, but this also wasn’t supposed to be a playoff team when the campaign began. Los Angeles is ahead of schedule because general manager Les Snead knows how to find hidden gems in the draft and head coach Sean McVay knows how to coach them. This was the season when the Rams turned a fifth-round pick into the most productive rookie receiver in NFL history (Puka Nacua). Second-year back Kyren Williams was a fifth-round pick in the 2022 draft and he was the best running back in the league not named Christian McCaffrey this season. The Rams found two defensive talents in this rookie class, too, with edge rusher Byron Young (eight sacks) and nose tackle Kobie Turner (nine sacks) thriving as first-year players. That’s an exciting place to be for a team that went all in to win the Super Bowl two seasons ago and openly admitted it might need some time to rebuild itself into a playoff contender. The question now is whether Snead and McVay can keep bolstering the foundation they’re setting with this latest crop of young players.

Can the Steelers figure things out on offense?

That was the question that hovered over this team all season and it is one that requires serious discussion this offseason. The first issue head coach Mike Tomlin needs to address is who will be calling the plays next season. He fired Matt Canada after 11 weeks of dismal results but the interim replacements — running backs coach Eddie Faulkner and quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan — probably aren’t long-term options. That means Tomlin needs to find somebody who can step in and energize this unit with creative ideas. The next critical move is deciding if quarterback Kenny Pickett is the man who should be leading the offense. He’s been up and down during his first two NFL seasons and it’s noteworthy that Tomlin stuck with third-stringer Mason Rudolph in a critical Week 18 win over Baltimore and the wild-card loss to Buffalo. Pickett was healthy enough to play, so it’s possible he will face some competition for the job heading into next season (even though Rudolph is not under contract for 2024). There are some pieces for the Steelers to build around in improving their offense, including talented wide receiver George Pickens. The question is how far Tomlin — who’s entering the final year of his contract — is willing to go to get this right.