State of the Buffalo Bills: Heat is on Sean McDermott, Josh Allen to win team's first Lombardi Trophy
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Where does your squad stand ahead of the 2024 NFL season? Adam Rank sets the table by providing a State of the Franchise look at all 32 teams, zeroing in on the new faces to know, one significant fantasy spin and the stakes at play in the campaign to come.
Members of the Bills organization, Bills fans around the world and those who know they’re going to take a table bump at the tailgate (free advice: do it back-first, not feet-first) …
Buffalo was one of the top teams in the AFC once more in 2023, but the season ended in disappointment. Again. People were fired. Blame was laid. The disgruntled receiver was traded. Now some folks are talking about the team’s Super Bowl window being closed. That strikes me as hyperbolic at first blush, but let’s take a look.
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2024 brain trust
| POSITION | NAME |
|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean McDermott |
| General manager | Brandon Beane |
| Offensive coordinator | Joe Brady |
| Defensive coordinator | Bobby Babich |
| Special teams coordinator | Matthew Smiley |
Roster reshuffling
Below is a rundown of the Bills’ most notable roster developments for the 2024 season, including this year’s draft class, as well as key acquisitions and departures via free agency and trade.
| Draft class (round-pick) | Key additions | Key departures |
|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State (2-33) | Mitchell Trubisky, QB | Nyheim Hines, RB |
| Cole Bishop, S, Utah (2-60) | Chase Claypool, WR | Latavius Murray, RB |
| DeWayne Carter, DT, Duke (3-95) | Mack Hollins, WR | Gabe Davis, WR |
| Ray Davis, RB, Kentucky (4-128) | Curtis Samuel, WR | Stefon Diggs, WR |
| Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, IOL, Georgia (5-141) | Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR | Deonte Harty, WR/PR |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio, LB, Washington (5-160) | La'el Collins, OT | Ryan Bates, OL |
| Javon Solomon, DE, Troy (5-168) | Will Clapp, C | Mitch Morse, C |
| Tylan Grable, OT, UCF (6-204) | Dawuane Smoot, DE | Leonard Floyd, DE |
| Daequan Hardy, CB, Penn State (6-219) | Casey Toohill, DE | Shaq Lawson, DE |
| Travis Clayton, OT, International Player Pathway (7-221) | Austin Johnson, DT | Jordan Phillips, DT |
| DeShawn Williams, DT | Tyrel Dodson, LB | |
| Deion Jones, LB | Dane Jackson, CB | |
| Nicholas Morrow, LB | Tre'Davious White, CB | |
| Mike Edwards, S | Micah Hyde, S | |
| Jordan Poyer, S |
New faces to know
He’s not new, per say, because he did assume this role midway through last season when Ken Dorsey was fired after Buffalo lost to Denver at home in Week 10. The Bills were pretty mid at that point, owning a 5-5 record. They went 6-1 after Brady was elevated to offensive coordinator, allowing the team to claim its fourth consecutive AFC East title. That led to Buffalo swapping out Brady’s interim OC title for the permanent role in January, but it’s worth pointing out that Josh Allen had a much worse completion percentage (60.7 vs. 70.3) and passer rating (85.5 vs. 96.6) under Brady than Dorsey last season. Question is, do you want wins or stats?
Babich has served numerous roles on the defensive staff since 2017, but now he takes on his biggest assignment yet. The Bills have fielded a top-four scoring defense in each of the last three seasons. They allowed just 18.3 points per game in 2023 and created the third-most takeaways in the league with 30. There are a lot of new faces on this unit, with Buffalo saying goodbye to veterans like Jordan Poyer and Tre’Davious White, but change could be good. I expect the Bills to continue to be stout defensively.
The Bills drafted Coleman with the first pick of the second round. He joins veteran additions Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool, Mack Hollins and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as alternatives to Stefon Diggs (traded to Texans) and Gabe Davis (signed with Jaguars). Buffalo also has Khalil Shakir, but Coleman is the most intriguing player in this WR room, at least to me. He’s the first wideout the Bills have drafted in the first three rounds during the Josh Allen era. Keon led Florida State with 11 touchdown receptions last year and really should have been a first-round pick. Buffalo came away with a steal here.
State of the QB room
Josh Allen is one of the best in the business. The Bills boast the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL since 2020 (28.6 points per game) and have averaged 387.3 total yards per game, second behind the Chiefs. Allen leads the NFL with 174 offensive touchdowns since 2020 (23 more than any other player) and is top two in nearly every offensive metric among quarterbacks in that span. He does have a bit of trouble with turnovers, though, as he also leads the league with 75 giveaways and 57 INTs since 2020. Not ideal, because when Allen doesn’t turn the ball over, the Bills are undefeated in the last four seasons, going 16-0.
We will talk about the playoffs a lot with Josh Allen. Here’s the thing: Three of his five playoff losses have been to Patrick Mahomes. He’s also lost to Joe Burrow. And Deshaun Watson. But check it: Allen has a 21:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 1.1 interception percentage in the playoffs over his career — both best among quarterbacks with 10-plus starts in the Super Bowl era. He has a 2.5 interception percentage in the regular season. Don’t come in here saying Allen’s turnovers are holding him back.
Most important non-QB
Josh Allen has 53 rushing touchdowns in his career, but it’s time to let somebody else carry the ball. Perhaps Cook, who was pretty good last season. The third-year back led the 2023 Bills with 1,567 scrimmage yards, becoming the first Bills running back in the Josh Allen era to top 200 carries (237) and 900 rushing yards (1,122) in a season. Cook added 44 receptions for 445 yards, also the most by a Bills back in the Allen era.
My HOTTEST Bills fantasy take:
Dalton Kincaid becomes the Bills’ version of Travis Kelce.
After watching Kincaid rack up 73 receptions (fourth-most by a rookie tight end in NFL history) for 673 yards in his first season, it’s not hard to imagine him recording at least 100 targets and 1,000 receiving yards while flirting with double-digit touchdowns in 2024. Last season, Kincaid averaged 50.5 receiving yards per game in Weeks 7 through 18.
2024 roadmap
Three key dates:
- Week 2 (Thursday night): at Miami Dolphins. I don’t want to start anything, but is it possible the Dolphins have passed the Bills in the AFC East? I know the Bills won the division again last season, so maybe this is dumb. But it kind of seems like things could start to feel uneasy if Buffalo loses this game.
- Week 11: vs. Kansas City Chiefs. I’ll just say it: Josh Allen has not entirely looked the same since that 42-36 Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs a few years ago. That setback definitely wasn’t his fault — Allen was absolutely transcendent in that game — but the quarterback and his team just haven’t been at that level since the devastating exit.
- Week 16: vs. New England Patriots. I’m not sure if Sean McDermott’s brother made the schedule or something, but the Bills face the Patriots — who might have the worst roster in the NFL — in two of the final three weeks of the season. There is a home game against the Jets sandwiched between those two contests.
For 2024 to be a success, the Bills MUST:
A) Win the Super Bowl
B) Make a playoff run
C) Earn a playoff berth
D) Finish above .500
E) Show progress
My answer: A) Win the Super Bowl. Buffalo could hoist the Lombardi Trophy … or Sean McDermott could be the first coach fired this season. Although history has seen the Bills finish somewhere in the middle. Unfortunately, I have a feeling that this might be the end of the line for McDermott. I mean, winning the AFC Championship Game would be enough to secure his job. But the Bills have been so close for so long. They ended a 17-year playoff drought in McDermott’s first season back in 2017. They have won at least 10 games in five of six seasons with Josh Allen at quarterback. They have won four consecutive AFC East titles. It’s all great. But it’s time to take that next step and win the whole damn thing.
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