NFL win-total projections, AFC: Chiefs secure No. 1 seed; Bengals, Browns join Ravens in playoffs
- NFC
- AFC
NFL franchises use contextualized data to create competitive advantages. In order to realize an edge, teams need to employ the right data in the right way at the right time. This means distilling, interpreting and applying only the most influential data in a framework that accounts for their personnel, their opponents and their evolving game situations. My goal is to be YOUR analytics department. I want to work for you by providing a peek into which numbers flag in my models as the most impactful … or the most misunderstood.
With eight weeks (and the trade deadline) in the books, we’re taking a midseason look at win projections for all 32 teams for the 2023 season, focusing on the AFC below.
As always, let me know if your eye test is picking up on something interesting, or if there’s a stat/trend you’d like me to take a deeper look at. You can hit me up @CFrelund. As with any great analytics department, the more collaborative this is, the more value we can create.
NOTE: The odds presented below are provided by FanDuel. They are current as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 1 unless otherwise noted.
- Over/under Wins: 11.5
- Make Playoffs: -4000
- Win Division: -650
- Win Conference: +220
- Win Super Bowl: +500
As was the case at this time last season, Kansas City secures the No. 1 seed (and the conference’s sole playoff bye) in the highest percentage of simulations. But the difference between that figure in 2022 (40%) and in 2023 (13.9%) illustrates just how tight the AFC is this year.
- Over/under Wins: 11.5
- Make Playoffs: -650
- Win Division: -130
- Win Conference: +600
- Win Super Bowl: +1200
The Ravens’ upcoming interconference showdown with the Seahawks is actually looking like one of the keys to their season. The game forecasts to be close, with Baltimore winning in 52.5% of simulations, meaning it currently adds 0.525 to the team’s win total. If the Ravens can beat Seattle and turn that 0.525 into one full win, they’ll give themselves some insurance against some tough stretches on the horizon: back-to-back matchups with AFC North foes in Weeks 10 (vs. the Browns) and 11 (vs. the Bengals), plus a trio of coin-flip-close contests in Weeks 15-17 (at the Jaguars, at the 49ers, vs. the Dolphins).
- Over/under Wins: 11.5
- Make Playoffs: -1300
- Win Division: -180
- Win Conference: +490
- Win Super Bowl: +950
When it comes to speed, the eye test verifies what the Next Gen Stats show: The Dolphins have a ton of it! Per NGS, Miami players are responsible for the five fastest speeds run by ball-carriers or pass catchers this season. But there is a less obvious stat that further illustrates the Dolphins’ offensive virtuosity: As of Week 8, they have had success on more different types of play calls (based on positive EPA) than any other team in the NFL going back to Week 1 of the 2022 season. (Coincidentally, the team they supplanted last week, Kansas City, is their Week 9 opponent.)
- Over/under Wins: 11.5
- Make Playoffs: -950
- Win Division: -400
- Win Conference: +950
- Win Super Bowl: +2000
No player currently has more pressures than Josh Allen (48) this season, per NGS. We knew about the Jaguars’ offensive potential coming into 2023, but perhaps we (I) didn’t give enough love to the defense, which now has the seventh-best win share in the NFL.
- Over/under Wins: 10.5
- Make Playoffs: -225
- Win Division: +210
- Win Conference: +750
- Win Super Bowl: +1200
Josh Allen has been picked off more times (50) on passes of 10-plus air yards than anyone else in the NFL since 2018, per NGS. Keeping the offense out of catch-up mode is key to limiting turnovers for Buffalo, which in turn means it is crucial for the Bills’ defense to allow as few points as possible to opposing teams. So snagging cornerback Rasul Douglas from the Packers on Tuesday was an important move, especially with Tre’Davious White on injured reserve. NGS shows that Douglas has allowed just 6.5 yards per target this season, which is a full yard less than any healthy corner on the Bills’ roster.
- Over/under Wins: 9.5
- Make Playoffs: -150
- Win Division: +330
- Win Conference: +950
- Win Super Bowl: +1700
In Weeks 1-4, Joe Burrow ranked 31st in the NFL in expected completion percentage, and Cincinnati went 1-4. In Weeks 5-8, he ranked second, and Cincinnati went 3-0. It seems he might finally be at 100 percent after being slowed by an early-season calf injury. The main takeaway: We still haven’t seen just how good the Bengals can be over a sustained stretch yet this season. But the underlying metrics suggest the ceiling is high.
- Over/under Wins: 9.5
- Make Playoffs: N/A
- Win Division: +450
- Win Conference: +1500
- Win Super Bowl: +2800
Quarterbacks typically dominate my win-share metric. So far this season, I have seen three non-QBs finish a given week with a better win share than at least five QBs: Christian McCaffrey (in every week but Week 6), A.J. Brown (in Weeks 3-8) and Myles Garrett (against the Colts in Week 7). It is, uh, uncommon for a defensive player to do that, but Garrett showed just how much he means to Cleveland in that win, logging a blocked field goal and two strip-sacks, including one that was recovered for a Browns TD.
- Over/under Wins: 8.5
- Make Playoffs: +235
- Win Division: +950
- Win Conference: +4900
- Win Super Bowl: +8500
Zach Wilson threw for 122 yards and a touchdown when facing pressure in Week 8 against the Giants — that was the QB’s best showing under pressure in his NFL career. The Jets have a world-class defense. Between Wilson’s steadier play and the presence of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, the offense might just have enough pieces to help sneak this group into the postseason.
- Over/under Wins: 8.5
- Make Playoffs: +172
- Win Division: +850
- Win Conference: +3300
- Win Super Bowl: +10000
When Minkah Fitzpatrick is on the field in 2023, the Steelers defense allows a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of -4.8. When Fitzpatrick is not on the field, that number jumps to 8.2. In other words, the potential for opposing offenses to complete a pass increases by 13 percentage points without Fitzpatrick. So, yeah, the sooner he recovers from the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 8, the better for Pittsburgh.
- Over/under Wins: 8.5
- Make Playoffs: +172
- Win Division: +700
- Win Conference: +2200
- Win Super Bowl: +4200
Though an ankle injury slowed Austin Ekeler at the beginning of the season, he and Justin Herbert make up one of the most potent duos in the NFL — even when the ball is not going Ekeler’s way. Going back to the beginning of the 2022 season, Ekeler has the second-highest off-ball win share in the NFL, behind only Christian McCaffrey, which reflects the way defensive respect for Ekeler’s presence opens up opportunities for other skill players. It was good to see Ekeler make a difference in the passing game again in Week 8 (eight targets, seven catches, 94 yards and a TD).
- Over/under Wins: 7.5
- Make Playoffs: +360
- Win Division: +900
- Win Conference: +5500
- Win Super Bowl: +12000
Will Levis‘ NFL debut was spectacular last Sunday. He became the first QB to throw three TD passes traveling an air distance of 50-plus yards in a single game since NGS started tracking players. Levis has accounted for three of the eight longest TD passes by air distance so far this season and three of the top 25 completions overall.
- Over/under Wins: 7.5
- Make Playoffs: +260
- Win Division: +750
- Win Conference: +5500
- Win Super Bowl: +18000
According to my models, there are just two games remaining on the Texans’ schedule in which their projection to win is below 43% (at the Bengals in Week 10 and vs. the Browns in Week 16. With four divisional games left (including two against the Titans), the playoffs are not out of the question for C.J. Stroud and Co.
- Over/under Wins: 7.5
- Make Playoffs: +590
- Win Division: +3100
- Win Conference: +9000
- Win Super Bowl: +22000
According to Pro Football Focus, the highest-graded individual players on the Colts’ offense this season are Ryan Kelly, Bernhard Raimann and (though he’s missed the past three games with a hip injury) Braden Smith — the center and two tackles. I love it. Raimann’s pass blocking has improved since the beginning of the season; his selection in the third round last year is paying off for Indianapolis.
- Over/under Wins: 6.5
- Make Playoffs: +920
- Win Division: +5500
- Win Conference: +16000
- Win Super Bowl: +26000
Maybe we should be talking more about Ja’Quan McMillian. The second-year pro out of ECU has lined up in the slot for the majority of his coverage snaps this season, and he’s logged one INT and a PBU, along with 23 tackles and 16 stops. He’s also committed zero penalties, a positive on a team where some defensive backs have been called for a handful each.
- Over/under Wins: N/A
- Make Playoffs: +1120
- Win Division: +3100
- Win Conference: +16000
- Win Super Bowl: +30000
Computer vision shows that Maxx Crosby‘s ability to change direction and adapt to a moving QB is the best in the NFL, as measured by how quickly he gets to top speed, and then by how little speed he loses when changing direction. Further, he also has a top-three fatigue rate in the NFL — in other words, his production drops off very little as the game wears on.
- Over/under Wins: 5.5
- Make Playoffs: +1400
- Win Division: +19000
- Win Conference: +12000
- Win Super Bowl: +50000
The Patriots might have dropped to the bottom of the AFC projections since I last did this exercise in September, but at least they have this going for them: Week 9’s matchup against the Commanders shifted from a projected New England loss to a projected New England win after Washington shipped out pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline.
