NFL Power Rankings, Week 17: Red-hot Ravens jump 49ers to claim No. 1 spot; broken Chiefs fall to No. 9

A million things happened afterward, but I thought the Ravens showed a lot of early poise following a pretty shaky start against the 49ers. Kicking off the Brock Purdy pick party in the end zone was a strong response, but the defense bent a few times early and the offense opened with a three-and-out and then an unfortunate, ref-induced safety. From there on, though, it was a Baltimore onslaught that ended with a 33-19 road win. The Ravens have passed a number of mental-toughness tests this season, and we saw them check the box on two more Monday night: stemming the tide early in a hostile environment and then making a tremendous goal-line stand in the final few minutes to shut the door on any miracle-comeback possibility for the Niners. Lamar Jackson played such a cool, composed game, even if the Ravens might’ve taken their foot off the gas a bit early. It certainly tilted the MVP debate in Jackson’s favor on a night when his biggest competition threw four picks and was knocked out of the game. But do not overlook the reason for Purdy’s nightmare outing: a swarming, relentless Baltimore defense.

Even though the 49ers saved face a bit late in the 33-19 loss to the Ravens, it’s impossible to overlook how tough a night Brock Purdy and several elements of the offense had. On the first interception, Purdy forced it in the end zone — bad decision. The second one was a terrific defensive play by Brandon Stephens (and Marlon Humphrey). No. 3 was all on Purdy, even if it was a fluky play because he saw two flags fly in front of his face before the throw. Purdy’s arm was hit on the fourth one, but by that point, the Ravens had landed enough haymakers to make the debate a pretty moot one. It was just a lump of coal all around. San Francisco’s offensive line got manhandled after a certain point. The tackling was atrocious for a stretch. It just was not the game I expected from this team at this point in the season. But the Niners have stumbled before and risen again, and I believe they’ll be in the thick of the Super Bowl race, especially with the NFC’s top seed still very much in play.

The Dolphins did what we’ve been begging them to do all season long: beat a quality team. The 22-20 win over Dallas came in Miami, but the fact is the Fins went toe-to-toe with a good squad and prospered in a tense, playoff-like environment. They needed every Jason Sanders bomb to get it done, but the key play might have been the third-and-2 conversion with just under two minutes remaining in the game. Running the football has been the Dolphins’ sneaky superpower this season when they’ve had their full offensive personnel on the field, and though they did not spring a lot of big runs Sunday, they finished off the important ones. This now sets up a potential division-clinching game against the Ravens, which just so happens to be another terrific playoff table setter. Miami has responded beautifully after Week 14’s shocking loss to Tennessee.

The Cowboys lost and the Eagles won, ending their three-game slide, so the bottom line is that it was a productive weekend. The division title moved closer to landing in Philadelphia, with two winnable games remaining (vs. Cardinals, at Giants). But Monday’s victory over the Giants was fairly unimpressive on the whole. The Eagles nearly coughed up a 20-3 lead to a team that benched its quarterback midgame because the offense was struggling. Philly’s special teams turnover was a bit fluky, and while Dallas Goedert fell down on Jalen Hurts‘ pick-six, Hurts was lucky he didn’t throw an interception on the play just before it, too. The Eagles outgained the Giants by nearly 200 yards, but all the mistakes made it a close game that came down to the final play. They’ll want to knock those off as much as possible before the playoffs, one could safely assume.

You just knew the Lions’ first NFC North title — which will give them their first home playoff game in 30 years — wouldn’t come easily. They had to fight and scrap for every drive in the thrilling win over the Vikings, benefiting greatly from four Nick Mullens interceptions (all of them on deep balls). But the Lions also deserve credit for those defensive stops, even if their down-to-down consistency was lacking and they had few answers for Justin Jefferson. Could they stand to tighten up on defense? Uh-huh. Will they take the game-changing turnovers, even while allowing chunks of yards? Absolutely. It also helps that the offense has multiple playmakers capable of being showcased in any given game. Rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs atoned for his early fumble with 100 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, as he and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown took over in the second half. A special season in Detroit will be extended by at least one game in January.

They already clinched a playoff spot somewhat anticlimactically, but a division title might not be in the cards after Sunday’s loss in Miami. If that’s the case, the Cowboys will have to find a way to pull off three straight postseason road wins to finally make that elusive return to the Super Bowl. They’re good enough to get there at their best, and the ‘Boys did rip off five straight wins in impressive fashion not that long ago. But converting third downs consistently has proven to be problematic in most of Dallas’ five road losses, and the offense went just 1-for-3 in the red zone at Miami, with the opening-drive first-and-goal fumble giving the Dolphins a huge early momentum swing. The offense did atone late with the epic, 17-play, go-ahead TD drive, but the defense couldn’t finish it off after playing well most of the second half.

I hedged a bit last week, placing the Bills in the No. 8 spot — and boy, did I hear about it. Some readers wanted them at No. 2! I wasn’t about to do that, and Saturday’s struggle against the Chargers was a reminder of how off they’ve been at various times this season. It might not be the start of a trend, but it’s not exactly the kind of performance that boosts confidence in the big picture. Second-year back James Cook went from season-saving hero to fumble-prone concern in the span of a week. Buffalo’s defense came up with timely plays from Ed Oliver, Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson. And when he needed to be, Josh Allen was money. But it’s like I tell my kids all the time: It doesn’t have to be that difficult. That said, the Bills are never boring! With the playoffs still hanging in the balance, expect a few more plot twists before it’s all said and done.

What’s prettier than a Joe Flacco deep ball? Sure, he got picked twice on those in Sunday’s first half, but neither hurt very much, as the miracle Browns drove for three first-half touchdowns and stuffed their fans’ stockings with two more to start the second half in a 36-22 win at Houston. Granted, the Texans were fielding a battered lineup against them, but seeing Flacco and Amari Cooper (who racked up an incredible 265 yards receiving and two TDs) hook up time and time again was good enough for me to think Cleveland could be a real problem in the playoffs. The Dustin Hopkins injury is one to watch, though, as he has been so money for the Browns all season. But even with the questions, this team has a big-play operation on offense and one of the five best defenses — if not the best — in the league. That’s what makes Cleveland dangerous, even if it has to open the playoffs on the road.

This looks like a broken team in some ways. How else do you explain losing to an opponent whose quarterback had ZERO completions on 10 pass attempts after the first quarter? The defense did its job against the Raiders, but the offense flunked yet another test. Dropped passes, turnovers and ill-timed penalties have turned one of the league’s most dangerous offenses over the past five seasons into one of the league’s most mistake-prone and disappointing units. Patrick Mahomes is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt (fewer than Desmond Ridder) and has been forced to use his legs more often, just to get anything started offensively. The Chiefs have only provided a few truly explosive offensive performances the entire season, and those were back in September and October. It’s hard to imagine that magic suddenly reappearing just in time for the playoffs.

It’s hard to believe that the same team that lost six of seven through the end of November now has a pretty clear-cut path to the NFC South crown: Tampa just needs to win one of the final two division games remaining. This would be the Bucs’ third straight division title, and it would be the least likely of the trio. Baker Mayfield was viewed by some as a bridge QB who, though perhaps able to keep the team competitive in the wake of Tom Brady’s retirement, was at a career crossroads. Consider the road crossed. Mayfield has been terrific over the past two weeks, and he’s putting together one of his stronger seasons all told, if not his best. Sunday also was a great day for the Bucs’ defense, which has had its share of ups and downs, with the big-play factor keeping that unit thriving. This is suddenly a team you must respect.

I’ll admit it: I left the Rams for dead at 3-6. Since the Week 10 bye, though, they’ve made me look silly with an offense that has really come to life late in the season. Matthew Stafford is reminding everyone how good he still can be. Puka Nacua is out there rewriting the rookie receiving books, while Demarcus Robinson has come up surprisingly huge. Cooper Kupp is still Cooper Kupp. And Kyren Williams has been the engine of it all. The second-year back’s return to the lineup, even with a two-fumble first half against Washington in Week 15, has given Los Angeles’ offense a huge jolt in the ground game and the aerial attack. And did I mention that Sean McVay has been coaching his tail off most of this season? It would be a shame to see the Rams lose a big game — maybe even a postseason game — because of the kicking woes, as they now lead the league with 11 field-goal misses. But the fact we’re even talking about them as a possible playoff team is pretty remarkable in its own right.

The storybook season isn’t dead yet, but it’s clear the Texans need C.J. Stroud (concussion) back on the field to keep it alive. Case Keenum struggled in the loss to the Browns, and whatever cosmetic stats Davis Mills racked up in garbage time shouldn’t have too much stock put into them. Neither QB was able to complete a pass longer than 18 yards, and through three quarters on Sunday, they combined to complete 12 of 18 throws for 67 yards with two picks and three sacks. Of the two, Mills might be the better option, but Stroud is the only signal-caller who gives the Texans a real chance to (a) get into the playoffs and (b) possibly win a postseason game. The pass defense is a worry, while the ground attack has wavered game to game. If Stroud can’t return to rescue this team, the season will still be a success, but it sure would be more memorable with the rookie leading one last rush for the playoffs.

It feels like Jacksonville’s season is cratering as I type, with the Jaguars losers of four straight and playing their worst football of the season. The Buccaneers took Sunday’s game over in the second quarter and never looked back. The Jaguars still have a mathematically strong chance to make the postseason — and even win the division. If they do hit the tourney, though, the forecast will still be shaky, even if they start at home. The Jags are 2-5 in games in Jacksonville, losing the past two against playoff-caliber foes. Trevor Lawrence just hasn’t had the Year 3 many of us expected — and now he’s dealing with a sprained shoulder — but it’s hardly all on the quarterback. The Jags have kicking woes, defensive concerns and are not very healthy at wide receiver. Doug Pederson should be commended for his work in turning this franchise around, but it has gone off the rails lately.

Jake Browning‘s worst game came at a pretty tough time, as did Ja’Marr Chase‘s injury. Even if the 34-11 defeat at Pittsburgh wasn’t the final stake in Cincinnati’s heart, it inflicted a ton of damage to its already-fleeting playoff chances. But there’s also a bigger picture to consider for this Bengals season, which has to start with their 0-5 division record. It’s been over two decades since Cincinnati went winless in the North, even before Marvin Lewis’ time as coach. Joe Burrow started three of those five losses, by the way. The Bengals have changed the arc of the franchise, winning the past two AFC North titles under Zac Taylor, but Saturday’s blowout loss revealed a worrisome weakness. They were absolutely dominated on both lines of scrimmage, getting out-toughed by a team with even lower playoff odds and one that was starting its third QB of the season.

After building up so much goodwill with the 5-1 stretch that started in November, the Colts fell flat in the 29-10 loss to the Falcons. Like in Week 14’s 34-14 loss at Cincinnati, Indianapolis was exposed on the road by a competitive team starting its backup quarterback. Gardner Minshew (a replacement QB himself) and Indy’s offense struggled after the opening-drive TD, punting on their next four drives. In the fourth quarter, the Colts sandwiched two turnovers on downs around a back-breaking interception. But the defense came up small, too, seeing its 19-game takeaway streak end and registering just one sack of Taylor Heinicke (for no loss) after racking up 25 of them in the previous six games. The Colts have well surpassed many folks’ preseason expectations in Year 1 under Shane Steichen, but the feel-good season might be petering out at the very end.

Geno Smith had a high bar to clear in his return to the lineup, following Drew Lock‘s thrilling game-winning drive against the Eagles in Week 15, and it was a slow burn for Smith on Sunday. But he got cooking late, with the second of two fourth-quarter TD drives giving Seattle a victory it had to have. For now, the Seahawks just want to give Smith a runway into the playoffs if possible, and the next two games (vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona) line up pretty well for him. Whether or not Smith will remain the starter in 2024 is a potential discussion that should be tabled for now. Seattle might not be the most disciplined team in the league, and the level of consistency week to week is a bit too shaky for my taste, but any club with playmakers like the Seahawks have can be a playoff threat.

They’re 8-7 with two games left following the shocking domination of the Bengals and still have a remote chance to get into the postseason. We should never doubt a Mike Tomlin-led team, even if the coach has been as questioned by Steelers fans as I can ever remember this season. Back-to-back home losses to teams that arrived at Acrisure Stadium with a 2-10 record can do that, even to the most credentialed coaches in this league. But Tomlin stymied the fans’ chants to fire him for at least one game and gave himself a chance to keep his career streak of .500-or-better seasons alive for another year. Mason Rudolph also changed the QB narrative locally with his strong performance in place of Mitch Trubisky, and now Tomlin says the former third-stringer is in line to be Pittsburgh’s starter again for this week’s game at Seattle. Are the Steelers a good team? Not sure. But fascinating? For sure.

The Vikings aren’t done, but it’s getting late. They deserve a ton of credit for keeping the season alive — and even extending the team’s midseason win streak to five games — after Kirk Cousins was lost for the season. Justin Jefferson was sidelined for that entire hot stretch, so it really is a credit to Kevin O’Connell’s and Brian Flores’ coaching jobs, getting the most out of their respective units to remain in the playoff race. In Sunday’s six-point loss to Detroit, Jefferson put on a show, reminding everyone just how rare he is, whether via his incredible diving TD catch or his improbable conversion in the waning minutes on 3rd-and-27. But that show was also a reminder of what could have been had this team kept its core healthy for more of the season. A 2-0 finish against the Packers and Lions can get the Vikings in the postseason, but they must prepare themselves for the possibility that their largely-inspiring campaign might come up just short.

It’s one thing for Baker Mayfield to have one of his best days against the Packers’ defense in Week 15. But it’s quite another for Bryce Young — amid a less-than-stunning rookie season — to register the first big game of his NFL career against coordinator Joe Barry’s unit. Barry has become the latest in that position to earn the fans’ wrath, following in a time-honored tradition carried on by Mike Pettine, Dom Capers and Bob Sanders. The Packers ultimately got it done, and it was encouraging to see what a (relatively) healthy Aaron Jones can do for the offense. Green Bay has also had some nice contributions from the likes of Tucker Kraft and Bo Melton. If the Packers can win two more, they’re probably in, but that feels like a big ask at this moment. Their playoff odds might have crept up with the narrow victory over Carolina, but my faith in them did not.

Like the old Monty Python skit, they’re not dead yet. The Falcons have plenty of heavy lifting left, with remaining road games at Chicago and New Orleans, and they might need a little help, with the Bucs also winning in Week 16. But Taylor Heinicke helped save the season for now. After a few dangerous passes in the first half, he settled in and ended up providing the stability the passing game — and the offense as a whole — had been craving for weeks. The backs also were a big part of the success, naturally, as Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson were productive as a three-headed monster, both running the ball and in the passing game. It was truly a three-phase victory, with the defense and special teams also coming up big, and it felt like a reminder of all the missed opportunities Atlanta has squandered during a mostly-frustrating season. Arthur Smith and the Falcons might have their backs against the wall, but there’s still a chance to salvage this thing and perhaps even earn a home playoff game with some positive turns.

Has Antonio Pierce done enough to convince Mark Davis to give him the full-time head-coaching job? Monday’s stunning win over the Chiefs surely went toward that end. Pierce has had a few warts on his résumé since taking over, including a home shutout, but the past two games have been impressive: a 63-21 shellacking of the Chargers and a win at Arrowhead, just the second for the Raiders in the past decade. But don’t forget that Davis’ last interim coach, Rich Bisaccia, went 7-5 after Jon Gruden’s resignation in 2021 and led the Raiders into the postseason — then gave way to Josh McDaniels. Pierce sits at 4-3 with two games to play, but he’s coaxed some quality play out of his team. The final two contests could be critical for his future there.

Things just didn’t look right for Denver from the start on Sunday night, even though the Broncos scored first and the Patriots weren’t doing much offensively. But the third quarter was an utter disaster for the home team, as New England logged two offensive touchdowns before notching a shocking special teams scoop-and-score … while the Broncos netted negative yards. Credit Sean Payton’s team for the frantic fourth-quarter comeback, hitting the inside straight with two TDs and two two-point conversions (without Courtland Sutton, who was sidelined in the first quarter by a concussion). Russell Wilson made plays, with anonymous pass catchers like Lucas Krull and Brandon Johnson stepping up. It could have been a fantastic finish and a huge boost to Denver’s playoff chances, but the defense couldn’t get one more stop. Payton’s first season with the Broncos has been an interesting one, and he’s done some really good things, but this three-point loss will sting all offseason, I suspect.

They’re getting extra time to prepare for the suddenly-hot Buccaneers, but can the Saints turn this season around? Both Tampa Bay and Atlanta won in Week 16, pushing New Orleans into third place in the NFC South. This past Thursday’s loss to the Rams was a wicked setback, as Alvin Kamara was completely contained and some of New Orleans’ biggest bugaboos this season (tackling on defense, finishing drives on offense) were exposed once again. The Bucs dominated the Saints in New Orleans in the first meeting back in Week 4 — and Tampa Bay is arguably a much better team now than it was then, currently riding a four-game win streak. It might be up to Derek Carr and the offense setting the tone in the rematch, and there have been signs of improvement there. But right now, coming from third place to win the division feels like a steep climb — as does leapfrogging four NFC teams for a wild-card spot.

They’ve played a very respectable brand of ball following the 0-4 start, going 6-5 since. But we’re still left to wonder what might have been had the Bears been a better fourth-quarter operation. Their play in the final 15 minutes recently cost them potentially huge road victories at Detroit and Cleveland — two teams with double-digit wins — and opened the door for a possible shocker Sunday against Arizona. The Cardinals were able to cut the Bears’ lead from 21-0 to 24-16, as Justin Fields threw a bad fourth-quarter pick to end a promising drive and Chicago’s defense sagged too much late. The Bears ultimately finished off three-win Arizona, but they must know that these late-game struggles cannot continue if they want to join the heavyweights of the division.

Even with how the Jets performed early on Sunday, building a 27-7 lead, it’s hard to say they played anything approximating a great game one day after it was reported that both head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas would be back next season. Breece Hall was terrific, bouncing back after a few duds, and the special teams made some big plays early. But how can a defense that completely flustered Sam Howell look so helpless against Jacoby Brissett? Even if Brissett repeated his effort from the week before against the Rams, outplaying Howell in garbage time, the Jets can’t call themselves a top-tier defense and allow things like this to happen. All of this is advanced prep for next season at this point. But Saleh and Douglas still must be judged on what happens now, even if this season is kaput. 

Will Levis‘ high ankle sprain opened a door for Ryan Tannehill to make a last gasp. There was nothing egregiously bad, but Tannehill just didn’t have it in a rusty performance vs. the Seahawks. In the big picture, this could be his final ride with the franchise. Levis is the future, or at least part of it, and Tannehill’s contract is not secured beyond 2023. And he’s not the only one whose Titans future remains up in the air. This is a team with several players headed for free agency. You know some name players won’t be back. Salary-cap space isn’t the issue. This is a 5-10 outfit in what looks like a middling division — at best — so the Titans might want to swab the decks and spend the money elsewhere. Derrick Henry rebounded Sunday with a good performance, but he’s in the same contractual boat as Tannehill. What about DeAndre Hopkins? There might be more to play for in the final two games than meets the eye.

There still can be interesting developments in lost seasons, and the reduced role of Derwin James in Saturday’s tight loss to Buffalo certainly opened my eyes. In essence, he was a nickel corner in the game, taking only a few snaps at safety and playing just 40 of the 52 defensive snaps. James has been an impact player for the Chargers since entering the NFL as a first-round pick in 2018, rarely coming off the field when healthy. But interim coach Giff Smith apparently has a different vision of James’ role down the stretch, which could raise questions about his future with the franchise, seeing how he carries a salary-cap hit just south of $20 million in 2024. Now, Smith probably won’t be the Chargers’ head coach next season, and a new front office is set to take over, so it’s impossible to project future personnel decisions. Even still, I’ll be keeping an eye on James once the new regime settles in.

I’ll be fascinated to see how Brian Daboll handles the quarterback position for the final two games. Not that long ago, it would have been sacrilegious to suggest anyone but Tommy DeVito should get those snaps. Yet Daboll benched DeVito for Tyrod Taylor against the Eagles on Monday, and it looked like the right move, as the Giants fell behind 20-3 with DeVito playing and then outscored the Eagles 22-13 with Taylor out there. Granted, six of those second-half points came on a defensive score, but DeVito wasn’t getting it done early. It raises the question as to whether DeVito has somewhat fallen out of favor. I’m not sure that’s the case, but the bloom might be off that rose for now. DeVito’s ceiling might be as a backup, but how Daboll handles these final games could tell us a lot on that matter.

Something tells me Bill Belichick isn’t as obsessed with the Patriots’ draft position as some fans are. The thrilling win at Denver reinforced the idea that the injury-battered Pats have not quit one bit on their embattled coach, as the team now has been blown out twice this season and played in 13 games that were at least pretty close. They’ve only won four of those contests, which is a problem, of course, but Bailey Zappe has lit a little fire under this team, and the defense is playing pretty darned well, especially considering everything the unit has lost to injury. After missing a 47-yard field goal and an extra point, Chad Ryland atoned with his 56-yard game-winner — although he’s still in the red after massive misses against the Colts and Giants. This isn’t a good New England team, but it’s a few plays away from having six or seven wins. What the future holds for Belichick is likely only known by him and owner Robert Kraft, but there’s an argument to be made that the Pats aren’t as far from contending again as some might believe.

Many Cardinals fans are already thinking about next season, but even so, they must be concerned about Kyler Murray‘s uneven play in his abbreviated 2023 campaign. Seeing Arizona’s defense struggle isn’t the most shocking thing, given that unit’s lack of talent and depth following significant attrition this past offseason. But with Murray, there are reasons why it’s much more worrisome. The offensive personnel’s in better shape, and there are young pieces Arizona plans to build around. Also, first-year coordinator Drew Petzing has displayed some creativity in the face of adversity. Murray, to be fair, has had his moments. But the passing game has stagnated, even if Murray’s numbers in Sunday’s loss at Chicago looked decent. He’s been great in fourth quarters (67.6 percent completions, 486 yards, three TDs), but pretty darned ordinary in the first three quarters (59.4 percent, 819 yards, three TDs). I’ll feel better if he finishes strong against Philadelphia and Seattle.

The Sam Howell discussion has turned a little dark in recent weeks, as he’s been upstaged in each of the past two games by Jacoby Brissett in relief. Had that happened earlier in the season, prior to Howell showing some real promise, it might not have been so bad. But there has been a clear regression over the past two weeks, in terms of both Howell’s play (17-of-48 passing, 158 yards, one TD, three picks in that span) and the offense’s performance with him on the field. Meanwhile, Brissett has led TD drives on five of his past six chances. Is it worth giving the journeyman a couple late-season starts? It might not have any bearing on what happens next season, but it could give Howell a little mental break and allow him to see the game from a different perspective, with a 2024 reboot being the biggest focus.

The Panthers have been more competitive of late, and that trend helped set the table for Bryce Young‘s career day in a loss to the Packers. The bottom line is that Young really needed that kind of game before the end of the season, otherwise we wouldn’t have a whole lot to point to from his rookie year. Sunday’s effort was encouraging, even if it came against an embattled Green Bay defense. Young missed some throws, but he made a number of impressive plays and finally was able to attack vertically with success after struggling to threaten downfield for most of the season, going 6-for-6 for 102 yards and a touchdown on post patterns, per Next Gen Stats.