NFL Power Rankings, Week 14: 49ers reclaim No. 1 spot after statement win; Packers continue to rise

They’re back. For the first time since Week 7, the 49ers are in the pole position. At least as far as these rankings go. As for the NFC’s top seed, that remains a quest in progress, even after Sunday’s monstrous, resounding victory in Philly. Did the Niners catch an Eagles team that had been put through the grinder lately? Sure. But that’s what the playoffs are about, right? It’s a weekly deathmatch, and second place is an extra week’s vacation. Who wants to see these two teams meet again in the postseason? Yeah, just about all of us — and it feels borderline inevitable at this point. If the 49ers carry a healthy offense into a rematch, it might be too much for the Eagles — or any other foe, for that matter — to handle. Brock Purdy has answered any question you could have conjured up during the three-game losing streak. He was the maestro before that — and has been since.

After 12 straight weeks of games — including a trek across the pond to London, two separate West Coast trips and consecutive prime-time games — the Ravens more than earned their rest during the Week 13 bye. Even with a few slip-ups to their name, they’ve put themselves in a great spot to win the division and make a run at the AFC’s top playoff seed — and others have helped. The Steelers and Browns both lost Sunday, greasing the division skids a bit, and the Chiefs lost, making the path to a first-round bye smoother. The good news: Baltimore controls its fate. The bad: The schedule is a bear, with games remaining against Jacksonville and Miami, two teams also gunning for the top spot. There’s also a possible Super Bowl preview on Dec. 25: Ravens at 49ers. Merry Christmas, everyone.

The secret is out. The Eagles’ short-handed linebacker group was exposed in Sunday’s blowout loss to San Francisco, both in coverage and via the 49ers’ run game. The tackling was bad; 115 of Deebo Samuel‘s 116 receiving yards came after the catch. Truthfully, this has been an issue for a few weeks, but Philadelphia made critical stops against Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo. That just did not happen against San Francisco. The Niners punted twice in their first two possessions … then scored six straight touchdowns. It was a stunning sight in such a big game at the Linc, even if the Eagles are allowed to lose one every now and then. But it’s the first time in a few years where they’ve really been outclassed. You can’t blame Jalen Hurts missing time because it was a 28-13 game when he left and 35-13 when he returned — likely the same score it would have been had he not missed a play. Monday’s addition of veteran LB Shaq Leonard is intriguing, especially considering Philly beat out Dallas to sign him, but did the playoff-hungry Colts cut a player who can truly reverse the Eagles’ recent defensive swoon?

Since the loss to the Eagles, the Cowboys have gone 4-0, winning the first three of those games by an average of 30 points. This past Thursday’s triumph was notable for the fact that Dallas never panicked despite Seattle leading for much of the second half. It’s a testament to how dangerous the Cowboys’ offense has become, even if the defense struggled to get off the field against the Seahawks. But the ‘Boys now have extra rest coming into the big rematch against the Eagles in Dallas this Sunday night. The Eagles’ Week 13 loss really invigorated the races for the NFC East crown and the conference’s top seed. Dallas has won 14 straight at AT&T Stadium, but the defense will have some work to do after the Seahawks diced it up.

I wrote last week that the Dolphins could survive the Jaelan Phillips injury, and through one game against the Commanders, they’re 1-for-1 in that department, with a mostly dominant defensive showing on the road. But the 45-15 win over Washington also came with a cost: the knee injury to LB Jerome Baker, who has played a sneaky-big role on this Miami D. And the injuries weren’t restricted to the defensive side of the ball, with OT Terron Armstead and OG Robert Hunt both leaving the game and exposing the offensive line. The Dolphins have proven themselves this season against the lower-rung teams in the NFL, but in Weeks 16 though 18, they must show it vs. the three-game gauntlet of Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo. There are two home games against also-rans before that, and Miami’s sitting pretty now at 9-3, but this less-than-healthy team can’t afford too many more significant injuries. 

You can gripe about officiating — it’s your afforded right! — but for uncomfortably long stretches Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes was throwing some funny-looking passes, and the defense was getting worked over. That’s a few games now where Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has put Kansas City in a two-score hole early and asked a struggling offense to bail the team out. It worked against the Raiders, but not against the Packers. In the past, this wasn’t such a big worry, but now it is. I was surprised the Chiefs didn’t run the ball more Sunday night. They averaged 6.3 yards per carry in the first half and 5.7 in the second. Isiah Pacheco was the best K.C. performer on a night when Mahomes was off and Travis Kelce (four receptions) was the only Chief able to catch a pass longer than 16 yards. Does Mahomes need to be nearly flawless for Kansas City to have a shot in the playoffs? It sort of feels that way.

The Lions have their best record through a dozen games since 1962, and they’d have to trip over about 14 rakes between now and Week 18 to miss the playoffs. There’s an excellent chance they’ll be hosting a postseason game, and they’re not out of the race for the No. 1 seed. So why does it feel like there’s a slight panic in Detroit? Well, because the Lions have insisted on making the journey more stressful than it needs to be, nearly coughing up multiple-score leads against the Chargers and Saints, barely coming back to beat the Bears and opening the door for the Packers to come steal the NFC North. The offense turned in a cleaner game at New Orleans, with no turnovers after committing a combined seven over the previous two games. But the defense remains a concern, falling apart in the second half on Sunday despite knocking Derek Carr out of the game. There’s just a general uneasiness around the Lions right now, especially with some tricky games down the stretch.

The Jaguars entered Monday night’s game with a chance to move into the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed. They left it with a shocking loss to Jake Browning and the Bengals, and their season suddenly in serious question following the injuries to QB Trevor Lawrence (ankle) and WR Christian Kirk (groin). Several other Jaguars were banged up in an ugly night at EverBank Stadium, where the home team dropped to 2-4 on the season. All hope isn’t suddenly lost, but the Jaguars have to sweat out another short week with Lawrence an injury worry. The offense was hot and cold before Lawrence went down in the fourth quarter, and a missed 48-yard field goal didn’t help, but Jacksonville’s defense can take the blame for this one. Allowing Browning to complete 86 percent of his passes and the Bengals to rack up nearly 500 yards of offense just can’t happen. Not for a team that was harboring Super Bowl dreams coming in. I almost moved the Texans ahead of the Jags, but I wanted to hear more about the Lawrence and Kirk injuries.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: On Tuesday, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said Trevor Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain, while Christian Kirk has a core muscle injury and “will miss some time.”

They were bracing for the worst, having suffered their past three losses in heartbreaking fashion, and the Texans’ luck already felt gone after losing Tank Dell to what would be a season-ending injury. But Jimmie Ward’s game-clinching, final-minute, end-zone interception — one of Houston’s three critical picks Sunday — clinched yet another dramatic victory, which is also something the Texans have come to know. The past five wins all came down to the wire in one-score games, so they’ve pulled out more close ones than they’ve not. We’ve touted other possibilities in this space, but DeMeco Ryans has to be among the favorites for Coach of the Year, right? We know he’d love to do better offensively than 4-for-16 on third down and settling for three short field goals with a backup kicker. But the young Texans moved another step closer to the postseason, which seemed unimaginable even two months ago.

We don’t yet know Kevin Stefanski’s plans at quarterback, but Joe Flacco played pretty well for a guy coming off his couch a few weeks ago. Flacco’s bad pick started the avalanche that led to the Rams winning 36-19, but it was a one-point Rams lead with less than seven minutes to go and the Browns potentially driving to take the lead. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is expected to be available for the Week 14 game against the Jaguars, but Flacco had the look (for most of the game) of a player equipped to handle a playoff-like atmosphere. The Browns are hanging on for their postseason lives right now, currently in the seventh slot,. Cleveland’s defense, which has been mostly very good, arguably had its worst outing of the season Sunday. The Browns had better hope it was a one-game aberration, because they can’t win without that part of the equation. 

There have been numerous stretches where we’ve questioned whether the Steelers are truly a playoff team — not whether they will get in, but whether they even deserve to. Following Sunday’s shocking home loss to Arizona, the Steelers will be without starting QB Kenny Pickett for this Thursday’s game against New England. He was knocked out in the second quarter Sunday with an ankle injury, but even prior to getting hurt, Pickett wasn’t able to build on new play-caller Mike Sullivan’s strong first outing the week before. Pittsburgh was also guilty of self-inflicted errors galore, including basic stuff like getting lined up correctly, before backup QB Mitch Trubisky’s crippling fumble. Mike Tomlin has somehow led this team to 7-5, but it’s hard not to get the smoke-and-mirrors vibe, especially with Pickett possibly set to miss multiple games. Heck, the Steelers have looked quite beatable with him.

The Bills emerge from the bye still in the race but facing what could be two existential battles against playoff-caliber teams. First, they have to go to Kansas City and face the Chiefs, followed by a home game against the Cowboys. Two losses probably would sink Buffalo in a tight AFC field. Two wins would be a season-changer. A split likely extends the drama, but it doesn’t change the heavy lifting still required to get in. It’s too bad we’re at this point, because Josh Allen was the kind of player against the Eagles that we’ve been waiting for him to be. That’s the Allen the Bills need down the stretch. The Bills’ injury-riddled defense doesn’t appear to be the lockdown group it had been recently, and that’s another reason to wonder if this miracle playoff run can even happen in the first place.

With Jonathan Taylor potentially set to miss multiple games, Indianapolis has to figure out its run game quickly. Zack Moss has done a pretty remarkable job replacing Taylor this season, but Sunday was a step back for the Colts’ ground attack. They had a long run of 5 yards and averaged 2.4 yards per carry against the Titans. As a result, the Colts were 1-for-5 in the red zone, converting their first TD in that part of the field on the final play of the game. Gardner Minshew had a strong outing rallying Indianapolis, and Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce came up with some huge grabs in crunch time. The Colts deserve some credit for beating a division foe that was previously undefeated at Nissan Stadium, with the special teams as a huge catalyst, to extend their win streak to four games. But this was a little too close for comfort for an Indy team that lacks some tiebreakers and still needs to stack more wins to be safely in the playoffs.

The season has been turned on its ear with Green Bay’s statement victory over Kansas City, making it appear more likely right now that the Packers are in the playoffs than out, especially with a very favorable schedule down the stretch. Currently, they’re slotted in the final NFC wild-card spot, with a tiebreaker over the Rams. Just think, the 2-5 Packers beating the 3-5 Rams in Week 9 is dictating the shape of the playoffs. Anyway, Green Bay is engineering a run (without David Bakhtiari or Aaron Jones) behind Jordan Love’s emergence and a defense that’s making timely stops. Turnovers tell a big part of the story. In the first nine games, Green Bay was minus-4 in turnover ratio. In the past three games? Plus-5. And to think, some Packers fans were warming to the idea of a Round 1 quarterback. Forget that for now. Love is here to stay. 

The Seahawks’ best offensive effort since arguably September was wasted when the defense essentially made one true stop during the game — a third-quarter turnover on downs at the Seattle 30-yard line. It’s hard to know where this team sits now, either offensively or defensively, because of the wild swings week to week and some lingering injuries. But the reality is this: After losing to the Cowboys, the Seahawks are 6-6, two spots out of the playoffs currently, with the 49ers (who dismantled the Seahawks on Thanksgiving) on tap in Santa Clara. After that, they host the Eagles, so this is going to be a mad dash for the playoffs, but one that’s going uphill. Perhaps the return of Kenneth Walker III will help, and Geno Smith was clearly hurt last time against the 49ers (he looked far healthier against Dallas). So while there’s playoff hope, Seattle might have to steal one against an NFC heavyweight to have a shot to get in.

Winning Sunday could have done such good for the Broncos’ playoff hopes, as they would have held tiebreakers over three of the teams they’re jockeying with for wild-card spots. But Houston pulled it out late, dealing a blow to Denver’s chances. Late in the third quarter, it looked like the Broncos could eke out a victory after they had trailed 13-0 early. Russell Wilson suddenly was cooking, and the defense was lights out after a rough start, forcing four punts in five possessions. But Wilson threw the first of three picks in the final 16 minutes of play, with the last one coming in the end zone with a chance to win in the last minute. The defense put Denver in a hole early, and the offense couldn’t quite pull it out late. The Broncos might need to go 4-1 down the stretch and get a little help to make the postseason now.

This week’s post-bye game against the Raiders figures to have some real drama beyond whether Justin Jefferson plays or not. There’s a chance that head coach Kevin O’Connell could make a change at quarterback — either before Sunday’s contest or during it — given Joshua Dobbs’ colossal struggles against the Bears in Week 12. At the very least, you can expect understudy Nick Mullens to be on ready-alert going into this game. Rookie Jaren Hall is back in the mix, too. This game — and the stretch that follows — not only will dictate whether the Vikings make the playoffs, but it likely will help determine the team’s offseason plan at QB. Another concern: Can the offensive line, which has been a team strength, hold up down the stretch? It did not against Chicago. 

Maybe this is what happens when you hang out around Joe Burrow, but when did Jake Browning become a stone-cold killer? Time and time again Monday night, while Browning was dicing up the Jaguars, I kept thinking how relaxed the guy looked. I was ready to rip Zac Taylor for the disastrous Tyler Boyd trick-play turnover, which was a bad idea from the start. But it was about the one time in the second half Taylor didn’t put the ball in Browning’s hands and ask Burrow’s replacement to win the game for him. Browning delivered in big way, completing a stunning 32 of 37 passes (with at least one clear drop) for 354 yards, notching a TD running and passing in the overtime win. The Bengals’ playoff chances went from miniscule to merely remote, thanks to an incredible performance from Browning in his second NFL start. Wow.

The Falcons left Gotham as the sole first-place team in the NFC South, which is the obvious good news. The bad is that the offense took a step backward, gaining just 194 total yards against the Jets, with 11 of their 14 possessions failing to travel more than 14 yards. They endured five three-and-outs, and two possessions lost yardage — including the first-quarter safety that put Atlanta in an early 2-0 hole. The fact that the Jets lost the turnover battle 3-0 but had the ball at game’s end with a chance to win tells you everything you need to know about the Falcons’ scoring issues. And it’s not just about yards. They have as many 400-yard performances as the Eagles do this season … but have yet to top 28 points. Even the Patriots have scored more in a game. Can Atlanta survive winning games this way? Its recent losses to teams such as Washington, Tennessee and Arizona suggest it’s not likely.

The topsy-turvy season took a turn for the positive with Sunday’s victory over the Browns. That’s now three straight wins (after three straight losses), and the Rams are all squared at 6-6. Nothing has been easy for this team this season, except for perhaps the adjustment of Puka Nacua to the NFL. After a few quieter outings in recent games, the rookie receiver fought through cramps and a rib injury Sunday to cross the 1,000-yard mark for the season, with four catches for 105 yards and a 70-yard TD, plus a 31-yard run that led to the go-ahead score. So here the Rams are with Nacua, Kyren Williams and Demarcus Robinson playing key offensive roles late in the season, and the playoffs still look well within reach, even with tough road games at Baltimore and San Francisco remaining.

In the most Chargerian development imaginable, just as the defense has made admirable strides in recent games, the once-prolific offense has hit the skids. The formula worked, producing a surprising road shutout (the franchise’s first since 2017), but the team’s identity shift is pretty on brand. In Week 10, the Chargers and Lions combined for 954 yards in L.A.’s 41-38 loss. Since then, the Chargers have scored 20, 10 and six points … while allowing 23, 20 and zero. The Patriots are a bad offensive team, but let’s not forget the Chargers held down the Ravens and Packers pretty well prior to that. What this means for the Bolts long-term is hard to say, but it’s pretty fitting that even in victories, this team has a hard time playing complete games where all three units acquit themselves well.

It seems clear Saints fans haven’t quite warmed up to QB Derek Carr yet, and Sunday was a fascinating case study of that relationship. Carr started slowly, and though his interception went off the hands of Juwan Johnson, Saints fans booed Carr anyway. Then he got hot, hitting 15 straight passes beginning in the second quarter, helping cut a 24-7 deficit to 24-21 during a third-quarter flurry. But when Carr lost a fumble on a poor center exchange, the fans booed more. He left the game a few minutes later with injuries, and Jameis Winston gave the Saints a chance to win it late, but quarterbacking wasn’t the only factor here. The Saints’ defense, once the team’s unquestioned strength, now is a question mark, as the Lions flexed their muscles often against that group. 

Do we appreciate Mike Evans enough? I mean, do we seriously grasp what kind of career he’s had? At some point Sunday, I saw a highlight of Evans’ 75-yard catch, with the announcer noting: “And he’s only 30 years old!” Look, I am pretty good with NFL players’ ages, but how is a man with a decade’s worth of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons only 30?! It defies logic. Randy Moss is second, with six straight such seasons to start a career. Up next for Evans is Jerry Rice, who holds the all-time mark with 14 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Come rain or shine, whether his team is in the postseason or not, the man always delivers. He’ll have a chance to keep Tampa Bay in the playoff race this Sunday in Atlanta. With the Bucs’ defense thinned by injury and looking vulnerable at times, it might be up to Evans and the offense to shoulder the load.

Aidan O’Connell still has the chance down the stretch to audition for the starting job next season, but through five starts, the fourth-round pick hasn’t exceeded the level of play that Jimmy Garoppolo displayed this season, and Garoppolo was benched. Granted, there’s a sliding scale for rookies, I assume, but you really can’t rule out the idea of Antonio Pierce going back to Garoppolo if O’Connell doesn’t improve. Pierce is trying to become the rare interim who keeps the job going forward. That means he needs to win games. The Raiders’ last interim coach, Rich Bisaccia, went 7-5 two years ago after Jon Gruden was fired and led the Raiders to the playoffs, nearly stunning the Bengals on Super Wild Card Weekend — but Bisaccia didn’t earn the full-time gig. Right now, Pierce is 2-2 with a fairly challenging final five games remaining. 

The Week 12 effort against Minnesota was commendable for a team that looked completely adrift in September. The franchise’s three big pillars — Justin Fields, Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles — have been putting in work. Fields’ return from injury was delayed, but it bore fruit with the win over the Vikings, even if his two fourth-quarter fumbles made it harder. Eberflus has led the Bears to a 4-4 record and a positive point differential over the past two months, following an 0-4 start. Poles acquired and wisely extended DE Montez Sweat, who is now second on the team in sacks in only four games. Will the final five games dictate the future path of the franchise? It feels that way.

Though the Titans are 4-8, Sunday’s loss was pretty momentous, given that it was their first true home L of the season, several Tennessee players were hurt during the game and the special teams coordinator lost his job the following day. Injuries to three relatively irreplaceable standouts (DT Jeffery Simmons, RB Derrick Henry and P Ryan Stonehouse) during the game turned a possible win into an overtime defeat. While Henry and Simmons may have avoided serious injury, the Titans’ fate appears sealed; even if they were to rip off five straight wins to close the season, they wouldn’t be guaranteed a playoff spot. Questions now linger about the futures of Henry, Mike Vrabel and others in Tennessee. There’s also still the matter of determining Will Levis‘ upside heading into the offseason, which will be crucial for this suddenly reeling franchise.

When Aaron Rodgers said last week that it “wouldn’t make sense” for him to attempt a late-season return if the Jets weren’t contending, Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons became the first of several must-win games — and the Jets proceeded to lose, 13-8. It was the third defeat this season in which they held their opponent to 16 points or fewer, and it was their fifth straight loss overall after a 4-3 start. There are no signs Rodgers will start in Week 14 against the Texans, but a fourth Jets QB could. Trevor Siemian came in for an ineffective Tim Boyle and nearly matched Boyle’s ineffectiveness. The Jets haven’t officially been eliminated from a wild-card spot, but … yeah, don’t assume Rodgers is coming back to rescue this season.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported on Tuesday that the Jets are releasing Tim Boyle and signing quarterback Brett Rypien off the Seahawks’ practice squad.

Rolling into the Week 13 bye with two straight victories made this a relatively quiet break by New York standards, but it’s not as if there aren’t things to figure out by season’s end. First, the Giants have to decide whether to go with Tommy DeVito or Tyrod Taylor at quarterback now that Taylor has returned from IR. Then there’s the state of the offensive line. The return of LT Andrew Thomas has given the team a lift, but it hasn’t resulted in a huge offensive boost, and DeVito is still being sacked every five dropbacks or so. The Giants would love nothing more than for RT Evan Neal to show something down the stretch. He’s been a liability at times when he’s played and seems like a possible candidate to kick inside if he doesn’t improve as a pass blocker on the edge.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: Giants coach Brian Daboll announced Tuesday that Tommy DeVito will remain the team’s starter for Monday’s game against the Packers.

I admittedly did not think the Cardinals would just coast into their bye with a statement victory at Pittsburgh, but here we are. The game gives us another chance to praise Jonathan Gannon and the effort he’s coaxed out of this team. There have been significant tests along the way, and losing six straight in the middle of a season could break any team’s spirit, no matter how young it is. That hasn’t happened in Arizona, and it didn’t happen on the road in a tough environment — with two weather delays, to boot — against a team scrapping for the playoffs. If Kyler Murray remains the Cardinals’ quarterback next season, he might have something special brewing with security blanket Trey McBride. The tight end was a massive factor in the 99-yard, go-ahead TD drive and is heating up in Year 2 as one of Murray’s most trusted targets.

Not too long ago, Sam Howell was looking like a pretty nice (and cost-effective) building block for the Commanders. And then he went out and threw a pick-six in three straight games, all Washington losses. Howell has only recorded one TD pass in that span, too, while Washington has fallen to 1-5 at home. Howell’s athleticism, toughness and big-play ability are high notes in his game, but the turnover-worthy plays and sacks taken are just too plentiful now and must be weeded out next season, no matter who his coaches or teammates are. That’s not excusing Washington’s bad offensive line or the defense for putting Howell in some really tough spots, but it is the kind of stuff that could prevent him from nailing down the starting job for 2024 and beyond.

The Patriots have held seven opponents to 24 points or fewer this season — and they only won one of those games. That’s not even the most amazing statistic related to this team’s offensive stagnation. In their past three games, the Pats held each opponent to 10 or fewer points — and they lost all three. Meanwhile, in Week 13 alone, three other NFL teams won games in which they allowed 28 points or more. At this point, it feels like you could put Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Malik Cunningham or even Steve Grogan out there at quarterback, and it likely wouldn’t make a difference. Rhamondre Stevenson was hurt Sunday, and New England is already without multiple receivers, so a bad situation has somehow gotten worse. Even by early-1990s standards, this Patriots season has been dreadful. 

The Panthers became the first NFL team to be officially eliminated from postseason play, and you’re now free to pour one out for them. Carolina actually led late in the third quarter Sunday — for all of 10 game seconds — before the Bucs hit the gas and took control. Like the Patriots, the Panthers have been in a season-long offensive slog. Unlike New England, however, Carolina remains clearly and deeply invested in its young quarterback. The remainder of the Panthers’ season should be spent trying to build up Bryce Young‘s confidence and effectiveness, with an eye on 2024 being his breakout year. Carolina can also try to play spoiler down the stretch, with games against all three NFC South opponents, plus the Packers and Jaguars, remaining on the schedule. Without a 2024 first-round pick on the horizon, the Panthers might as well go out and try to upset the apple cart.