NFL fantasy football: Daily fantasy sports picks for Super Wild Card Weekend
The fantasy season isn’t over! While your home or work league may have ended a couple weeks ago, daily fantasy offers the thrilling experience of critical matchups all the way through the NFL postseason. Don’t suffer from post-fantasy blues. Join me in building a DFS lineup and rooting for your squad while tuning in to playoff football.
To give you an edge in that experience, here are some top plays and sneaky values for the six Super Wild Card Weekend games. Pricing and scoring are sourced from DraftKings, and these players are all relatively viable in both guaranteed prize pool tournaments and cash game formats.
QUARTERBACKS
Salary: $8,000
There’s a reason Josh Allen is the most expensive QB on the slate this weekend. He averaged 25.3 fantasy points per game on DraftKings this season, most at the position, with a league-leading 44 total touchdowns (including a record-setting 15 on the ground). Meanwhile, the Steelers defense will be significantly less formidable without All-Galaxy pass rusher T.J. Watt (knee). Pay up for Allen and save elsewhere.
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Salary: $6,500
Matthew Stafford returns to the city that drafted him first overall and rallied behind him for more than a decade, now as a Super Bowl champion. Stafford has looked much more like that young Detroit gunslinger of late, averaging 2.5 pass TDs per game since Week 12 (second in the NFL). With an arsenal led by Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and against a defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs, Stafford offers perhaps the best price-to-upside ratio at the position.
Salary: $5,800
Only Mason Rudolph is priced lower ($5,300), despite the fact that Mayfield has played well and draws a truly rudderless Eagles defense. In his last four games not against the stingy Panthers D, the Bucs QB averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game (DraftKings scoring) with 11 total touchdowns. Meanwhile, Philly has allowed the second-most points and third-most yards of any defense over their 1-5 skid since the start of December. At home in a potential upset, Mayfield is a screaming value.
RUNNING BACKS
Salary: $6,800
Achane carries the third-highest price at the position this weekend, despite optimism that Raheem Mostert will return. That may seem surprising, until you remember how efficient the explosive rookie has been. Achane averaged 1.57 fantasy points per touch in 2023, most among running backs by a decent margin (minimum 50 touches). At that rate, he needs around 13 touches to be a DFS hit — more than doable in this matchup.
Salary: $6,400
The matchup isn’t superb for Pacheco, and the price is not quite as low as we might like, but it does reflect the value of his consistent workload. Pacheco has had 15-plus touches in each of his last six games and he’s topped 24 fantasy points in three of his last four. He may not have the upside of a Kyren Williams or Jahmyr Gibbs, but he should offer an incredibly high floor.
Salary: $5,400
Najee Harris is coming off his two best games of the 2023 season, both of which included 26-plus carries, 120-plus scrimmage yards and at least one score. In what forecasts to be a snowy, windy game in Buffalo — and one in which keeping Josh Allen off the field feels ideal — you can expect more of the same from the least expensive RB starter on the slate.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Salary: $8,000
In pricing, CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill sit in a tier of their own at wide receiver. But in fantasy output, St. Brown deserves to be in the same conversation. In DraftKings scoring, he hit 18 fantasy points in 13 of 16 games this year and averaged 27.8 per game over the last month of the season. With Sam LaPorta (and possibly Kalif Raymond) likely to miss Sunday’s contest with the Rams, St. Brown could realistically see 12-15 targets. He’s a stud.
Salary: $7,000
In his three full games with C.J. Stroud at QB since Tank Dell’s injury, Nico Collins scored 37.1, 15.7 and 37.5 DraftKings fantasy points. He also posted a decent 13.8-point floor against this tough Browns defense just three weeks ago … with Davis Mills and Case Keenum splitting snaps. He and Stroud look unstoppable and will need to dominate again to pull off the upset on Saturday.
Salary: $6,900
Evans has been a bit hit-or-miss lately but seems more likely to hit in his pending matchup with an Eagles secondary that’s been about as tough as wet tissue paper. He’s also averaged more than twice as many yards per game at home (102.9) as on the road (48.0) this season. If you’re looking to build a QB-WR stack, Baker and Evans might be the best bang for your buck.
TIGHT ENDS
Salary: $5,600
With Travis Kelce waning and Sam LaPorta hurt, Njoku might be the best play at tight end straight up. At his price of $5,600, he feels close to a lock. Over his last four games with Joe Flacco at QB, Njoku has averaged 23.6 fantasy points with 16-plus in every contest and a whopping 373 yards and four scores. He has both the floor and the ceiling to be a smash play in any DFS contest.
Salary: $3,300
If you’d rather save salary at tight end, Tucker Kraft might be your guy. The 2023 third-rounder managed four-plus catches and 40-plus yards in four of his last five games and kept the starting job when fellow rookie Luke Musgrave returned in Week 18. A bit of a dart throw, but that’s what we’re targeting at this price point.
BUDGET FLEXES
Salary: $3,600
Robinson scored 13-plus fantasy points in five straight games with Matthew Stafford at the helm to finish the season, growing more and more involved down the stretch. He’s an awesome sneaky-stack with Stafford and has a great shot at a touchdown.
Salary: $3,400
With Stefon Diggs disappearing in stretches and Gabe Davis banged up heading into Sunday, slot receiver Khalil Shakir could have a reasonable shot at five-plus catches and 60-plus yards. That alone would be enough to return value, with upside for more if he scores or breaks off a big play.
Salary: $4,400
Let’s be clear. As I write this, Fournette is still on the Buffalo practice squad and hasn’t yet seen 20 snaps in a game this year. That said, the Bills are 10-point favorites at home on what’s expected to be a blustery day. Fournette could be tasked to grind out the clock and should have a chance or two at the goal line. It’s a risk, but an intriguing one.
DEFENSES
Salary: $3,500
If you’re inclined to “pay up” for a DST, the Bills will be playing in questionable conditions against Mason Rudolph and an improved, but still suspect, Steelers offense. Buffalo’s squad just scored 12 fantasy points against the Dolphins and have averaged 10.4 per game at home all year in DraftKings scoring.
Salary: $2,900
The Chiefs DST is your locked-and-loaded option for the slate. On the road this season, Tua Tagovailoa has 12 touchdown passes and 10 giveaways. The forecast for this game is around 0 degrees Fahrenheit, with winds of 10-15 miles per hour. Steve Spagnuolo’s crew has been superb in 2023, ranking second in the NFL in both scoring and total defense. While the Dolphins are also in play (at $2,800), I’ll take the squad at home against Tua over the squad on the road against Patrick Mahomes.
