NFL Fantasy 2023 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Running backs for Week 13
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You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers — at least we hope so. Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting Christian McCaffrey. But that’s too obvious, so you won’t see such simple analysis here. Instead, we’re exploring more debatable situations. And if you can’t find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings.
Start ‘Em
Would you be happy if your fantasy running back gave you 110 yards? I think so. What if that was his worst fantasy game in six weeks? Because that’s exactly what Rachaad White did on Sunday. His 13 fantasy points in Week 12 were his fewest since Week 6. That’s extremely consistent and reliable production, and we know the upside is much higher than that. This is an upside week against the Panthers, who have yielded the most rushing touchdowns, sixth-most rushing yards and third-most fantasy PPG to RBs this season. They just allowed get-right games to both Tony Pollard and Derrick Henry. White is the lucky RB that draws Carolina this week.
After a prolonged slump, Pollard has broken out in a big way in recent weeks. He went for 18 fantasy points and ended his long TD drought against the Panthers in Week 11, and then topped that with more than 100 yards and a touchdown for 22.3 fantasy points last week vs. the Commanders. He gets another great matchup this week, as the Seahawks have allowed 5.3 yards per carry, the second-most rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns (most in the league) to backs since Week 8. Pollard is back to must-start status in Week 13. Rico Dowdle, who has topped nine fantasy points in two of his last three, is also a deep streaming option.
In the first week with a new play-caller, Harris ran for a season-high 99 yards and scored a touchdown. Warren didn’t have as big a game, but the usage was still promising. The two split snaps (53 percent for Harris, 49 percent for Warren) and carries (15 to 13 in favor of Harris). But Warren was more heavily utilized in the passing game. Harris has scored a touchdown in four of his last six games, with more than 15 fantasy points in each. Warren has reached double digits most weeks and brings a high ceiling. Both are in play this week against the Cardinals, who have allowed the most yards and touchdowns to backs since Week 8.
It appeared Singletary was the lead back in Houston for a little while, but that became official in Week 12. With Dameon Pierce back, Singletary played 81 percent of the snaps and dominated passing-down work. He had more targets than carries, but that’s honestly fine for fantasy, as a target is typically worth three times as much as a carry in PPR. The usage is awesome, as is the matchup in Week 13. Denver has allowed the most rushing yards, seventh-most rushing touchdowns and most fantasy PPG to running backs. The Broncos also struggle against RBs in the passing game. Start Singletary and sit Pierce.
IF YOU NEED A DEEPER OPTION …
Jeff Wilson returned last week after being a healthy scratch and played a third of the snaps for Miami, touching the ball 14 times. He turned that into 10.3 fantasy points. He has a good matchup this week against the Commanders, who have allowed 4.8 yards per carry to backs since Week 8. Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier is always a threat to get more work than anticipated, especially near the goal line. The Jets have allowed the third-most rushing yards to backs since Week 8, and this should be a favorable game script for Atlanta’s backs. The Falcons should turn to their running game early and often, as it’s clearly their strength and allows them to avoid the Jets secondary. Michael Carter is purely for deep-league players, but he did split snaps, carries and passing-game work with James Conner last week, straight up outscoring him in fantasy.
Sit ‘Em
The good news: Joe Mixon was one of two Bengals to top 30 scrimmage yards in Week 12. The bad news: Well, it’s the same as the good news. Cincinnati’s offense struggled mightily without Joe Burrow, as expected. Mixon carried the ball eight times for 16 yards, good for just 2 yards per carry. It was his fewest rushing yards since Week 7, 2019. A long catch-and-run salvaged his day, but even so, he scored just eight fantasy points. Now he draws a Jacksonville defense allowing the fewest rushing yards to backs this season. The Jaguars have allowed just two rushing touchdowns to RBs and none since Week 7. Mixon will need to win in the passing game to have any kind of fantasy success in this one. He’s not quite a must-sit, but if you have another option you like, take it.
While Williams has taken over Denver’s backfield, it hasn’t led to huge fantasy success as of late. He’s scored 10 fantasy points or fewer in two straight. Williams managers had to watch Samaje Perine score a touchdown while Williams was in the injury tent and then watch Russell Wilson vulture a second score later. Javonte also gets a very tough matchup this week against Houston. The Texans have allowed a league-low 3.1 yards per carry to backs since Week 8. They are in the bottom eight in yards allowed to backs in that span and on the year. If you’re thinking about playing someone else, do it.
Everyone’s favorite virtual farmer managed to top 11 fantasy points last week. The issue is that 11 fantasy points is pretty much his ceiling. His high mark this season is 13.6, and that’s his only outing above 12 points. So, you are looking at a floor of around five fantasy points and a ceiling around 11. The juice is just not worth the squeeze. Especially not in a matchup like this, as the Chiefs had been quite stout against the run prior to last week against Josh Jacobs. This has the makings of a Sunday night where the Packers turn to the passing game in an effort to keep up with Mahomes and Co. Add in that Aaron Jones could return and there is no shortage of reasons to sit Dillon this week.
Yes, Hubbard scored a touchdown last week, posted season-best numbers as a receiver and produced more than 20 fantasy points. I’m still not trusting him this week. Chuba was out-carried by Miles Sanders, 15 to 14. Prior to last week’s big game, he had scored fewer than 11 in four straight games. I wouldn’t rely on a repeat performance, as the Bucs have allowed just two rushing touchdowns all season and have been stingy both on the ground and through the air against RBs. Perhaps the usage swings more in Hubbard’s favor with Frank Reich no longer calling the plays, but I need to see it before I play a low-floor committee guy in a tough matchup. Even with six teams on bye, I’m just not confident playing this Panthers backfield just yet.
