Neil Reynolds' Keys to Super Bowl LVIII

Super Bowl 58 is fast approaching as the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs get set to take on the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sunday February 11.

As you would expect from a game that will produce this season’s champion of the NFL, this is a Super Bowl loaded with star power… from Patrick Mahomes to Brock Purdy, Travis Kelce to George Kittle, Chris Jones to Fred Warner. Everywhere you look there are playmakers who can turn this game one way or the other. And that’s without even mentioning the scheming that will come from excellent head coaches in Kansas City’s Andy Reid and San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan.

It should prove to be quite the battle as the Chiefs look to win a third Super Bowl in five seasons, while San Francisco are chasing a first league title since the 1994 campaign – 29 long years ago. Here are a few keys to the big game, which will be shown live on Sky Sports from 10pm and on ITV from 10.45pm on Sunday.

FOR THE CHIEFS TO WIN…

If the Chiefs are to be crowned as the NFL’s first back-to-back champions since the New England Patriots in the 2003-2004 seasons, some of these keys are likely to have played a role.

Find the trusted ones…

The 2023 regular season marked the worst of Patrick Mahomes’ glorious career to date. But he has been very efficient in the playoff wins over Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore. And after Kansas City’s receivers led the NFL with 33 dropped passes in the regular season, Mahomes is going to who he trusts. Travis Kelce has 23 receptions in the playoffs, while rookie receiver Rashee Rice has 20 catches. The next-best in that department are Isiah Pacheco and Noah Gray with six receptions apiece. Mahomes is going to make sure the ball gets into the hands of his trusted guys. And that should mean busy nights for Kelce and Rice.

Test San Francisco’s run defense…

Normally such a strength, San Francisco’s run defense has been exposed in the playoff wins over Green Bay and Detroit; allowing 159 rushing yards per game. Almost 70 yards more per game than in the regular season. Those figures prompted Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks to question the defense’s effort on some plays. Enter Isiah Pacheco as a key player in Super Bowl 58. The Chiefs second-year running back is 6-0 in the playoffs and has averaged 90.5 scrimmage yards per game in the postseason. With the Chiefs playing a much more conservative style of football, Pacheco – who has scored a rushing touchdown in his last four postsason outings dating back to last season’s win over Philadelphia – is going to be vital to their Super Bowl chances.

Defend a different way…

The Chiefs have leaned on their defense more than ever before in the Mahomes era. The unit ranks second in the league in fewest yards allowed (290 yards), points per game (17.3) and sacks (57). But with Steve Spagnuolo calling the plays as defensive coordinator, the Chiefs like to blitz 37.5 percent of the time – fifth-most in the league. That approach might play right into San Francisco’s hands because Shanahan often boasts that his offense has an answer for every blitz and Purdy has been the best in the game against that extra pressure, leading the NFL with 10.1 yards per attempt, 16 touchdown passes and a QB rating of 128.0. Most teams fear the Spagnuolo-inspired blitz… the Niners are going to openly encourage it, meaning the Chiefs are going to need to break their mould and get creative!

FOR THE 49ERS TO WIN…

San Francisco have been close in recent seasons, losing Super Bowl 54 to Kansas City at the end of the 2019 campaign; as well as losing NFC Championship Games in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. If they are to win the Super Bowl for a record-tying sixth time, here are some keys to consider.

Pressure Mahomes…

There is plenty of magic when it comes to Mahomes, but he can be pressured into a sub-par performance at times. When well protected in 2023, the two-time Super Bowl champion completed 75 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions for a quarterback rating of 106.0. When he was put under pressure, that completion mark dropped to 47 percent, there were six touchdowns and seven interceptions and a rating of 60.8 – the lowest of Mahomes’ career and fifth-lowest among all NFL quarterbacks. The good news is that the 49ers – led by star defensive end Nick Bosa – created the second-most QB pressures in 2023 and they did so without taking undue risks. San Francisco got after quarterbacks with a four-man rush on 77 percent of their plays on the way to Super Bowl 58 (second-highest in the NFL).

Feed the beast…

Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459) and scrimmage yards (2,023) during the regular season and he has scored a total of 25 touchdowns including the playoffs – a new team record. CMC is ridiculously talented and consistent. He is one of only two players in NFL history to average more than 110 scrimmage yards per game in regular season and playoff careers, the other being Hall of Famer Terrell Davis. Shanahan already has two high-profile Super Bowl defeats on his CV… he was offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons when they led New England 28-3 in the third quarter only to lose 34-28 in overtime. And in Super Bowl 54, San Francisco led KC 20-10 with seven minutes remaining and conspired to lose 31-20. On both occasions, those Shanahan offenses did not have a running back touch the ball more than 13 times in either game. McCaffrey has to be seeing at least 25 combined touches as a runner and receiver on Super Sunday and then we can see his skills take over this biggest of games.

Spread the love…

The beauty of San Francisco’s attack is that you never quite know who to shut down. The 49ers are the first team in NFL history to have a running back (McCaffrey) a tight end (George Kittle) and multiple wide receivers (Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel) top 1,000 scrimmage yards in the same season. The Chiefs are very good on defense and rank as one of the best units in the league against the pass. But it’s a tough ask to expect all four of those offensive stars to be kept quiet in the same game. Purdy overcame a couple of slow starts to put his team on his back in the playoffs and if he is to do the same again, spreading the ball around will be a good option… so long as it doesn’t come at the expense of the aforementioned McCaffrey.

Neil’s Prediction

The 49ers have the best roster in the NFL with a league-high nine Pro Bowl all-stars, 12 more alternates and seven All-Pros. But the Chiefs have the game’s best player in Mahomes and the pedigree of having been there and done it in recent times. A more pragmatic offensive approach – backed up by an excellent defense – has served Kansas City well in winning five straight games to reach another Super Bowl. I think they find a way – which has become their ultimate strength down the stretch – and beat the Niners in a hard-fought 20-17 battle.