Lance Zierlein 2024 NFL mock draft 4.0: Giants jump up for Drake Maye; Colts get Xavier Worthy at No. 15
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Just hours before the 2024 NFL Draft kicks off in Detroit (8 p.m. ET on NFL Network/ESPN/ABC), here is my fourth and final Round 1 projection.
The Bears have officially secured their new franchise-leading quarterback and have proceeded to the No. 9 pick.
Is this Daniels’ first choice as a franchise? I don’t know and I don’t think the Commanders care, as they sit tight and draft the talented dual-threat quarterback.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
In a trade up, the Giants might have to pay more than the standard trade chart would indicate, since the supply side of quarterback is dwindling but the demand remains high. Brian Daboll helped Josh Allen in Buffalo and may see a chance to do the same with the toolsy-but-inconsistent North Carolina quarterback.
In this scenario where the Patriots are moving out of the third pick, it’s possible for Arizona to also negotiate a deal to move back. However, in my projection, I predict that they will hold their ground and select one of the best players in the draft.
Surprise, surprise! While the Chargers could be looking at a receiver here — we all know they need one, after parting ways with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams — Jim Harbaugh sits tight and takes the biggest bully on the block to fortify his run game and set the tone on the right side for years to come.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW YORK GIANTS
The Patriots have opted to forego both quarterback and wide receiver to secure their marquee left tackle, aiming to strengthen their front line in what may become a three-year rebuilding and restocking period for Eliot Wolf, Jerod Mayo and their team.
Even if the Nos. 5 and 6 picks don’t go the way I have them, the Titans better have a contingency plan in case someone jumps them for Joe Alt. In this scenario, they land a future Pro Bowler with the explosive talent to accelerate Will Levis‘ growth in Year 2.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH ATLANTA FALCONS
The Vikings wait it out for a bit and are rewarded with the ability to trade up just three spots to take McCarthy while hanging on to their No. 23 pick. (Per the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, they can accomplish this deal by moving a future Day 2 pick.)
The Bears exhale in relief after an anxious wait to see if the Falcons would choose Odunze. Caleb Williams gains a new best friend and future WR1.
In my last mock, I had Brock Bowers in this spot, thinking New York’s poised to GO FOR IT with Aaron Rodgers at age 40. However, upon further consideration, the Jets have a Band-Aid at right tackle in Morgan Moses. Fuaga gives them the real, long-term answer they have been looking for.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Falcons need a pass rusher in the worst way, so the question simply becomes whether they take Turner, Byron Murphy II or Jared Verse here. The traits win out — Dallas hits Atlanta.
Despite everyone waiting for Denver to trade up for a quarterback, I have heard the Broncos are quietly putting feelers out there to move back and add another pick. If that doesn’t come to fruition, Mitchell becomes an instant starter across from Pat Surtain II.
The tall Washington player, characterized by his long arms and wide frame, is notably physical. He has the potential to immediately fill the position of right tackle, but also has the capacity to evolve into a powerful guard, should the Raiders decide to position him there.
Fashanu has the traits and flashes of a top-tier offensive tackle, though some teams actually see his best NFL position as guard. New Orleans is much more likely to view him as a left tackle, where he will be expected to beat out Trevor Penning, who has struggled to find his footing in the pros.
The Colts need a weapon who can create explosive plays — and someone whom QB Anthony Richardson can grow with. I thought long and hard about tight end Brock Bowers here, but then I remembered that GM Chris Ballard was on the Chiefs staff that drafted Tyreek Hill and suddenly surmised, Oh, yeah — he’ll take the guy with world-class speed and separation potential.
This could potentially be an ideal situation for the Seahawks, who require a high-impact inside D-lineman, and have the opportunity to secure the top pick, who is significantly better than the rest.
C.J. Stroud and the Texans put AFC South defenses on notice last season. Arnold is an in-your-face coverage talent with high football character and competitive fire Jacksonville coaches will love.
The Bengals certainly didn’t expect to see Brock Bowers available here. While they need offensive line help and another receiver to eventually take over for Tee Higgins, they would be wise to grab Bowers here and target OL and WR on Day 2.
The Rams really need to find an edge rusher, and this pick could come down to Laiatu Latu or Verse. Verse lacks the pass-rush polish of Latu, but his medicals figure to be cleaner and he’s the stronger run defender of the two.
I know the Steelers have needs at tackle, cornerback and wide receiver, but hear me out. Pittsburgh certainly could use help along the interior O-line, as well, and Barton might be one of the safest picks in the first round as someone who can play center or guard as an immediate starter.
The Dolphins might struggle to overlook a pass rusher like Laiatu Latu. However, considering the other quarterbacks in the AFC, Chris Grier and Mike McDaniel may perceive this as a strategic “arms race” pick. This could potentially make Miami the quickest team in football history.
The Eagles’ decision to add a physical defensive back with good instincts and the toughness to play outside or as a safety is fairly straightforward.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Latu’s slide down the board has ended, as he has been picked up by the Cardinals who moved up from No. 27 overall to secure the draft’s most refined pass rusher.
The Cowboys opt to select the gifted yet inexperienced bookend from Oklahoma, who possesses the natural skills to potentially vie for a starting position at either tackle spot.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Raiders make a bold move to trade back into the first round to secure their potential future quarterback, who could rapidly transition into their current quarterback.
Tampa secures a cornerback with impressive size and versatility in their scheme, who is ready to immediately compete for a starting position.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH ARIZONA CARDINALS
Minnesota balances its trade up into the top ten by moving back. Despite this, the Vikings manage to secure a highly skilled cornerback with exceptional speed and athleticism for Brian Flores’ defense.
Brandon Beane needs a wide receiver after the Stefon Diggs trade. However, the general manager typically stays true to his draft board — and if a player with the upside of Robinson falls into his lap, he might not be able to pass him up.
The Lions are in position to challenge for a Super Bowl right now if they can hit on a pick or two. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Detroit try to make an aggressive move up the board for a pass rusher. If that doesn’t happen, Robinson can play base end or defensive tackle and step into snaps very quickly.
The Ravens need to eventually find a right tackle — and they might need to find one for this season. If Mims falls here, Baltimore could do much worse than adding one of the most physically gifted specimens in this draft.
Mitchell possesses the height, weight, and speed necessary for success, but admittedly, he still has work to do to meet his full potential. However, he fits perfectly into the team. Furthermore, there may be opportunities for him to secure starting spots in San Francisco sooner rather than later.
It’s time for the Chiefs to find a wide receiver with not only size but the mindset to become an alpha whom Patrick Mahomes can lean on for the tough catch.
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