Five NFL offseason storylines that are overblown; five that deserve more attention

As we approach the end of June, there are still weeks before training camps kick off. This leaves us, the NFL enthusiasts, to comb through the reports from OTAs and minicamps that were held earlier this month. We aim to uncover enjoyable, intriguing, and valuable tidbits of information that will tide us over until July.

Some stories that emerged warrant more recognition. Conversely, others may have received more publicity than necessary.

This is the height of hype season, with the vast majority of the 32 teams feeling rejuvenated and invigorated. However, not all news circulating is as delightful as puppy dogs and ice cream. Certain team officials might be silently fretting over issues such as their defense, their quarterbacks, contract affairs, absence of leadership, and so on.

Look around, and you can find examples on both sides, from the saccharine to sacrilege. I’m here to sort through the offseason news cycle and filter out what really matters and what is overblown. After all, stuff people are worried about now will quietly disappear before you know it, while narratives that feel like blow-off stories have the potential to blow up in short order.

Here are ten stories, five for each side of the coin:

OVERBLOWN STORYLINES

1) Falcons QB situation

I’ve come full circle on this one. I get why so many people didn’t like the selection of Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall originally, and I don’t blame them for feeling that way. Everything to that point of the offseason indicated Atlanta was making a push for now, and the Penix move appeared to undercut that in an odd way.

If you want to argue that it didn’t help Kirk Cousins get better, I hear you. But I’d push back on the idea that it didn’t make the team better. Falcons fans might be programmed a certain way, having seen Matt Ryan start virtually every game for a decade and a half, and Cousins had been pretty darned durable prior to last year’s Achilles injury, but having two quarterbacks capable of starting is seldom a bad thing.

I’m not concerned about Cousins’ mental state. He’s experienced enough and has earned too much money to be disturbed by this. Moreover, if Cousins gets injured, the Falcons still have a credible fallback plan in Penix, despite him being a rookie. This is partly because he’s a rookie with six years of college experience, having started 45 games.

The NFC South is certainly up for grabs. With an advantageous schedule, the Falcons are in a good position to win. Their move to safeguard their most crucial asset with an insurance layer may not have been popular, but it’s undeniable that it could prove beneficial.

2) Caleb Williams as an immediate success

I’m not exactly sure where I’d rate the expectations for Caleb Williams in Year 1, but they feel high to me. Perhaps not Andrew Luck-level rookie hype here, but I believe expectations are higher for Williams in Year 1 than they were for Trevor Lawrence a few years ago.

Those expectations should be muted more than they seem to be right now. The past seven quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall, dating back to Jameis Winston in 2015, have produced an average Year 1 season of roughly 14 starts, 16 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions and about 3,100 pass yards. Pretty tame numbers collectively, even with a few positive outliers in the group.

Granted, the Bears offer Williams some things that few of those rookie QBs had: an exciting WR corps, the makings of a solid offensive line and other good foundational pieces on offense, not to mention an improved roster on defense and special teams. Williams is an exceptional talent, the likes of which the Bears might never have had at the position. The schedule also is quite manageable.

Hence the outsized hope.

Bears fans might want and expect immediate fireworks, but I’m here to say that the show might start a bit slowly. Things might not be as frustrating as they were for Zach Wilson in 2021, but 2023 Jordan Love might be a decent comp. Love was a guy who waited his turn for three full years with the Packers — and yet, through nine games last season, Love looked ordinary, not really cranking it up several notches until Green Bay’s playoff push.

I envision Williams pushing through a performance similar to Love’s during the initial half of his rookie season, possibly extending a bit further, before things truly start to click. They will, in due time. I have no concerns about Williams’ future performance. However, I do think the expectation to excel right away arises from an unrealistically idealistic viewpoint.

3) Bills’ offseason unloading of vets

The Bills have had a rough offseason, making them an easy target for criticism. They’ve found themselves in a challenging position once more after having to cut significant portions of their salary, arguably leading to a decline in four key positions. It’s difficult to assert that the Bills have improved in the areas of receivers, offensive line, defensive line, or secondary compared to their state a year ago.

Khalil Shakir is the only receiver on the roster who has caught a pass from Josh Allen after the departures of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield. But Allen won’t be looking around like confused Travolta. The tight ends project to carry a bigger share of the load. The upside of Shakir and Keon Coleman can’t be overlooked. And James Cook and Curtis Samuel figure to combine for more than 100 catches. If even one of the Mack Hollins/Chase Claypool/Marquez Valdes-Scantling trio does anything, Buffalo will be more than fine, I suspect.

The offensive and defensive lines both have a chance to be good units. I am worried about the depth in both spots, but the starting groups still have some strength to them. Good health would go a long way toward providing key stability.

If there’s a spot I am most worried about, it’s probably that secondary. Losing four major contributors (corners Dane Jackson and Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer) is no joke. But even so, I won’t write off this group, which features a few solid returners, the untapped upside of 2022 first-rounder Kaiir Elam and a potential rookie starter in second-round sleeper Cole Bishop.

For me, the reason this story is being exaggerated is due to Allen’s involvement. He’s clearly the main attraction, and it seems people are overlooking the potential benefits of his absence. There’s no longer a need to persistently involve Diggs or deal with Davis’ frustrating inconsistency.

I’m cautiously investing in Bills stock as it dips. Sure, there could be some losses en route, but I’m beginning to believe this team could rebound faster than many anticipate.

4) Chargers WR panic

When the Chargers cast off Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this offseason, it led to choruses of concern about Jim Harbaugh being left with the worst wide receiver room in the NFL in 2024. I don’t think those worries are accurate, honestly, and with the kind of team Harbaugh is building in Los Angeles, it made sense to reclaim some much-needed salary flexibility and reshape the team in a different way.

With Justin Herbert at QB, the Chargers won’t suddenly stop throwing the ball. There might be fewer attempts per game, but in a Harbaugh offense, you can expect an emphasis on efficiency in the passing attack.

Between 2011 and 2014, Harbaugh was the coach of the 49ers. During his four-season tenure, the team never ranked above 29th in the NFL for pass attempts, but never fell below ninth for rushing attempts. This can be partly attributed to the unconventional system used with QBs Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. Additionally, the Niners had the lowest number of INTs in three seasons and ranked among the top 10 for yards per pass attempt twice.

Harbaugh’s imprint, even with limited cap room, was clear. He beefed up the offensive line and added tight ends and backs. The Chargers will use six-plus offensive linemen and unbalanced formations. They’ll run the ball sometimes on third-and-6. This coach won’t change his stripes completely.

But they will use their receivers, and it’s maybe a better group than some realize. They’ve added seven wideouts since the draft, and I think three — Ladd McConkey, DJ Chark and Brenden Rice — will earn roles on this team. They also have two potential alphas (at least, alphas for this team) in Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston on board. Palmer could lead this group in targets (like he did in 2022 with 107), as could McConkey in a crazy scenario, but don’t forget what Johnston did to Harbaugh’s Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl a few years ago (6-163-1 receiving).

Plus, now that L’Jarius Sneed out of the division, I don’t think the AFC West is exactly loaded with coverage studs. Trent McDuffie is great for the Chiefs, and Denver’s Patrick Surtain II is a top-shelf corner. But after that? The Chargers will have plenty of chances to win one-on-one matchups in divisional games, and their schedule on the whole is not that daunting. The WR panic feels overblown to me.

5) Texans as Super Bowl contenders

I love everything about the direction of this team and believe it’ll be better in some ways than the 2023 squad that earned a lot of new fans amid a breakout season. The Texans have the coach (DeMeco Ryans), the QB (C.J. Stroud) and the play-caller (Bobby Slowik) to run it back, and they added Danielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs and others to the mix. What’s not to like?

Well, first, the schedule. It’s tough. The AFC South looks stronger as a division, and other than the Week 6 game at New England, I don’t see a single contest against an opponent that you clearly can say is in a rebuild.

Additionally, progress doesn’t always follow a straight line. We generally believe that the Texans are on an upward trajectory, and they may indeed be, but this doesn’t automatically mean they will secure more victories.

The defense, even with Hunter displacing Jonathan Greenard, still has to make big strides to be a consistently strong unit. The offensive line is improved but hardly dominant. The Texans lost the one effective runner (Devin Singletary) they had last season, and offseason import Joe Mixon is suddenly creeping up on 2,000 NFL touches, a threshold where some backs start to decline.

I believe Stroud is exceptional, and he filled many gaps last season. However, despite the blossoming of this youthful, thrilling base, I feel another year of nurturing is required. The Texans are likely to be more prepared for a Super Bowl sprint in 2025 than in the upcoming season.

DESERVE MORE ATTENTION

1) Is Tua the next $50 million QB?

It’s QB extension season, and any day now, the Dolphins could sign quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a massive new contract that exceeds $50 million per season on average. But they haven’t yet, even after presumably ensuring some future financial flexibility by letting two prized free agents (Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt) walk this offseason. And Trevor Lawrence‘s recent five-year, $275 million extension with the Jaguars might make Tua’s deal harder to achieve.

With Lawrence receiving a full $55 million APY, the bar has likely been raised even higher for Miami when it comes to extending Tua. Typically, getting in early on these quarterback deals is better for teams. If the Dolphins were slow-playing the idea of a $50 million pact for their QB, I can’t imagine a 10-percent price bump has them suddenly more eager to pay up.

Maybe this is being exaggerated, and Miami will sign its player in the upcoming days or weeks. This would be beneficial for Tagovailoa, who, commendably, just had the best season of his four-year career so far. His leading the NFL in passing yards (4,624) was a positive indication. However, what I think was even more significant was his ability to start all 18 games that Miami participated in, including the playoff loss. Tua’s durability was the major concern before the start of the last season.

But still, staying healthy enough to put together a long, prosperous career is another matter. Tagovailoa’s concussion history is probably most concerning in the big picture, but he’s had other ailments, too. At the same time, how do the Dolphins not sign him? There’s a sunk-cost element to the investment they’ve made in Tua (drafted fifth overall in 2020) that can’t be recouped, and there’s no obvious young QB in place to groom. Meanwhile, letting him play out the final year of his rookie contract, when he could further increase his value with yet another productive campaign, is risky poker.

2) The Raiders’ QB situation

I find certain aspects of the Raiders quite intriguing, and I am of the opinion that Antonio Pierce is guiding this team on the right path. The defense appears to be a top-12 unit, and their receiving weapons are competitive. However, it raises the question: What is the long-term strategy for the quarterback position?

It could be as simple as kicking the can down the road until, say, about Nov. 1. That’s roughly the midpoint of the 2024 season, and by then, we should know whether second-year pro Aidan O’Connell or offseason addition Gardner Minshew is capable of leading the Raiders to contention.

Minshew kept the Colts afloat last season after Anthony Richardson was lost to injury, and O’Connell played some solid ball down the stretch as a rookie, taking over right after Josh McDaniels was fired. It’s easy to forget what a mess it was in Vegas before Pierce, O’Connell and others helped tidy things up. Having some decent WR and TE talent offers some hope, too.

But in the AFC West of all divisions, the Raiders probably need more than solid QB play. They’re going up against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert — who are in their respective primes, no less — for roughly a quarter of the next several seasons. At some point, they’ll need their quarterbacks to win some games for them instead of depending on the defense to save them.

The Raiders might make it through this season and realize they need to invest in a veteran such as Tagovailoa or Dak Prescott, if either hits the market. The decision to pass on a quarterback in this year’s draft, when six QBs went in the first round, might force their hands; the 2025 QB draft class looks a lot cloudier than the ’24 group did at this same time last year.

Currently, the Raiders seem to have limited short- and long-term options, particularly in the challenging context of the NFL quarterback position.

3) Daniel Jones and Drew Lock

Way back in the early days of free agency, Seahawks general manager John Schneider had some really interesting comments about losing QB Drew Lock to the Giants on a one-year deal, with Schneider suggesting that Lock was sold by the Giants on a chance to win the starting job. That story was tempered in the days that followed, with Lock himself clarifying that this is still Daniel Jones‘ team.

But is it really? Yes, GM Joe Schoen indicated after the draft that Jones remained atop the depth chart, and passing on a quarterback — in spite of Schoen traversing the country to scout all the QB prospects — certainly sent a message of support for the in-house QBs, at least for the meanwhile. Drafting Malik Nabers and bolstering the offensive line this offseason are moves that also figure to help whichever quarterback takes the starting job and runs with it.

I think Jones will get his shot, and he said he’s on schedule to be under center Week 1. Even so, I just can’t escape the idea that the Giants will take a look at Lock, who wasn’t great in Seattle last season but certainly had his share of moments in relief of Geno Smith. The Giants watched him pinch hit against them in Week 4 and later watched as Lock led a stirring Week 15 upset of the Eagles.

This scenario could possibly mirror the aforementioned ones, where the Giants do their best to get through 2024 and decide later on the next course of action. However, I am convinced that Lock plays a more significant role in this situation than many are willing to acknowledge.

4) Anthony Richardson’s health

I was actually watching some Anthony Richardson tape recently when news came across that he was dealing with shoulder soreness during mandatory minicamp. Richardson blew it off, saying it was no biggie and that he felt fine.

Typical slow-news-cycle story, eh? It’s June, so there’s nothing to worry about, right? Sorry, but when I hear the words quarterback and shoulder soreness together, I don’t just brush it off, no matter what time of year it is, especially when said shoulder was recently surgically repaired. Consider me a little worried.

There’s no young QB in my mind who has a better chance to change the dynamic of his team and his offense than Richardson. The play I was watching against the Rams is a perfect encapsulation of his rare skill: a 38-yard tight-window dime that he delivered to Alec Pierce despite being unable to step into the throw, thanks to a clobbering by Aaron Donald.

We know about Richardson’s running ability. That was a ready-made skill the moment he entered the NFL last season. But it’s throws like the one that he made to Pierce that give us a window into Richardson’s vast potential. With Jonathan Taylor another year removed from his 2023 injury and holdout, and with the Colts adding more insulation offensively, Richardson could truly shift this franchise by taking off in 2024.

But that shoulder …

Athletes have setbacks all the time — heck, it wasn’t even clear this time a year ago if Brock Purdy, who went on to tally MVP votes for the Niners, was going to be ready for the start of the season. But shoulders are notoriously tricky, and injuries to them tend to linger; shoulders are also prone to reinjury. With Joe Flacco on board, there’s an intriguing level of security behind Richardson. But the last thing the Colts want this year is another incomplete season from the former No. 4 overall pick, clouding the picture of him and his team going forward.

5) The new kickoff rules

There has been some buzz from the diehards and special-teams junkies about the NFL’s new kickoff rules, but I am a bit shocked it hasn’t been louder to this point. No rule change this offseason was more stark and dramatic, and it absolutely will impact games this season.

The kickoff has seen numerous changes since 2011, primarily focused on player safety, and these changes seem to have been effective. However, it seemed as though the kickoff return was on the verge of becoming obsolete, much like the extinct dodo bird.

It’s unclear whether people are aware of the significant decline in the kickoff return in recent years. In the season before the first major rule change of this era in 2010, there were 2,033 kickoff returns and 23 touchdowns. However, those figures dropped to 1,375 returns and nine touchdowns in the subsequent season. Between 2018 and 2022, the average season saw roughly 1,000 kickoff returns and seven touchdowns. The last season experienced a drastic decrease, with only 587 returns and four touchdowns.

The NFL came in this offseason and rescued the kickoff, and I am here for it. But the new rules are vastly different. In addition to lopping off about 25 yards of running on the returns (which coaches love, because it speeds up practices and boosts efficiency), the pursuit and blocking angles are different, and everything happens faster. We could see some wild breakdowns (or breakouts) in the preseason as the format is being field tested live.

Teams including the Texans, Ravens, and Colts, who have demonstrated strength in special teams over the past years, may gain a competitive edge this season. Conversely, clubs like the Packers, Dolphins, and Rams, who have had difficulties in these units, could potentially lose some tight games unless they enhance their performance in these areas.

Ultimately, it’s about blocking and tackling, essentially offense and defense, in these situations. However, the aspiration is that the kickoff has regained its competitive nature rather than becoming predominantly ceremonial, as was its trend. I foresee this nuanced shift having a significant impact on this season’s games and potentially acting as a concealed advantage for the more intelligent and resourceful teams.