Fantasy football 2023 Week 15 sleepers: Three QBs to stream
The playoffs are finally upon us. If you’ve made it to the second season in your league, congratulations! If you didn’t make it and you’re still reading this … then I’m more grateful than you’ll ever know.
For those who are still playing, it’s a one-week season. In some cases, that means taking bold swings. Maybe you have that guy on your roster who you’re not sure about. Maybe it’s the matchup, maybe it’s the way things have changed in his team’s offense. Either way, it’s a concern heading into your postseason tournament. Or maybe you have a bye this week. That doesn’t mean you can’t start thinking ahead. This week’s sleeper could be next week’s hot waiver wire add. Even in the playoffs, it pays to get ahead of the curve.
Regardless of your reasons, you’re here. And we’ve got championships to win. Here are some names.
Quarterbacks
The Rams’ playoff chances took a big hit with their loss to the Ravens in Week 14. Don’t let that distract you from Stafford heating up over the past few weeks. In his last three contests, Stafford has had 10 touchdown passes and just one interception. Factor in that he’s boasted a 6:0 TD-to-INT ratio in the last two weeks against the staunch Browns and Ravens defenses and Stafford is suddenly very fantasy relevant.
If he’s lighting up two of the best defenses in the NFL, what might he do against one of the worst? Washington’s stop unit was being torched by nearly every offense it faced. It’s only gotten worse since the Commanders traded away Montez Sweat and Chase Young. A bad defense meeting a hot quarterback means Stafford could be a low-end QB1 in Week 15.
The last time we saw Geno Smith, he was giving the Dallas Cowboys defense all it could handle in a close loss in Week 13. An injury kept him out of action against the 49ers in Week 14, though he was working as hard as he could to get on the field. With the Seahawks playing on Monday night this week, it gives Smith one more day to get ready.
If he can get back on the field, he and the ‘Hawks would have a bird battle with a beleaguered Eagles defense. They were shredded by Dak Prescott in Week 14. The week before that, it was Brock Purdy and the 49ers. The week before that, it was Josh Allen and the Bills. If there’s been one consistency this season, it’s that you can start your quarterbacks and receivers against Philly. Add Smith to that list and put in him the low-end QB1 conversation this week.
Deep Sleeper …
Two weeks. Two wins. Two QB1 fantasy finishes for Jake Browning. He was a star in college, but we wondered if he could fill the massive void left by Joe Burrow. The answer so far has been yes. Once Browning gained the confidence to push the ball downfield, things in the Cincinnati offense took off. Even better, Browning has spread the ball around. Chase Brown and Tee Higgins were big recipients in the passing game. That should give fantasy managers confidence in some Bengals we were previously afraid to put in our lineups.
As for Browning himself, he’s done enough to get a streaming opportunity in Week 15. Injuries to Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud have taken two big quarterback options off the board for fantasy managers at a critical time. The Vikings are a middle-of-the-road matchup for fantasy managers, although they have only allowed one touchdown pass in their last three games. Nevertheless, with Browning playing so well and having so many weapons in the offense, he’s worth starting as a high-end QB2 this week.
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Running backs
The Steelers running backs have turned into a pair of gesturing Spider-Men. Regardless of which player is the “starter” or which one is seeing the most touches, their weekly fantasy production ends up mirroring one another more often than not. The problem is that their scores are so low that neither is a great starting option.
This week, however, things point in Warren’s favor. As much as the Steelers have a “pass-catching running back,” that title belongs to Warren. He’s seen more targets and has been targeted on a higher percentage of his routes than Najee Harris. That could come in handy against a Colts defense that has conceded the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs. With Mitchell Trubisky once again under center, short passing and dump-offs might be the order of the day as Pittsburgh tries to hide its quarterback. Warren is a mid-range RB3 this week.
The chatter around the Eagles lately has been borderline apocalyptic. Yes, they’ve lost two in a row. And yes, those losses have been blowouts. But they’ve also come against two teams that are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Philly is still one of the top scoring teams in the NFL. They’ll be fine.
It still wouldn’t hurt for them to run the ball a bit more — especially on Monday night. The reason is two-fold. First, the Seahawks rank near the bottom of the league in run defense. Seattle is surrendering more than 120 rushing yards per game. The second reason is to stay on the field longer and allow their embattled secondary to take a few plays off. D’Andre Swift has had varying levels of efficiency this year. He’s also had limited opportunities the past two weeks. Week 15 is a chance to load him up with touches against a forgiving run defense. He could be a solid RB2 in this game.
Wide receivers
I didn’t know what to expect from Beckham when he signed with the Ravens this offseason. After a pair of major knee injuries, it was improbable that he’d be the same game-breaker he was during his prime with the New York Giants. But that didn’t mean he was totally washed, right? The answer, as should have been expected, lay somewhere in between. He’s not on the field a ton, but when he is … the Ravens are using him.
Over Baltimore’s past three games, Beckham has been targeted on 36 percent of his routes. For context, Tyreek Hill sees a target on 35 percent of his routes. This week, the Ravens visit a Jaguars defense that has struggled against the pass recently. Jacksonville has given up consecutive 300-yard passing games to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco. With Lamar Jackson and the Ravens passing game heating up, OBJ can be a good WR3 option this week.
Did I mention that Matthew Stafford has been on fire lately? Because he has been. More notably, Los Angeles’ pass funnel has opened a little wider than just Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Robinson hit a season high with five targets in Week 13. He doubled that number in Week 14, taking advantage of a bigger opportunity after Tutu Atwell left with an apparent concussion.
That’s good momentum to have heading into this week’s contest with the Commanders. Washington has ceded the most yards and second-most touchdowns to receivers lined up wide. With Kupp and Nacua occupying so much space in the intermediate middle of the field, Robinson should get some one-on-one matchups along the boundary. Stafford will take his shots, meaning Robinson will have a chance to make plays. He’s a WR3 in most formats this week.
Deep sleeper …
Once upon a time, “Third and Renfrow” was a thing in the Raiders offense. Unfortunately, 2023 has not been that time. You’re forgiven if you forgot during the year that Renfrow was still with the club. At times, it seemed like the team also forgot. He had just nine targets through the first six games of the season — including two games without a single look.
Things have picked up lately. Renfrow has earned a 15 percent target share over the past three games and had a season-high 46 receiving yards in Week 14. All the while, he’s plying his trade in the middle of the field not far from the line of scrimmage. That’s the same area where Aidan O’Connell has lived. There’s no one way to beat the Chargers defense … but it can be beaten. It’s taken awhile, but O’Connell may have learned what multiple Raiders’ signal-callers have learned before him. Renfrow can be a good security blanket. Plus, Davante Adams popped up on the injury report with an illness. The floor is low, but Renfrow can be a deep league flex option in a pinch this week.
Tight ends
Think of this as a reminder that Goedert is back and available to add to your lineups. It wasn’t a great night for him against the Cowboys last week. Then again, it wasn’t a great night for many of the Eagles against the Cowboys last week. That doesn’t mean Goedert isn’t a valuable piece for an offense in a bit of a slump.
Through the first nine weeks of the season, Goedert was earning a 19 percent target share and seeing looks on 17 percent of his routes. That last number might seem low, but it’s in line with guys like Mark Andrews, Jake Ferguson and Dalton Kincaid. And it was in an offense that had been super efficient throwing the ball. The past two weeks have seen the Seahawks eaten up by Ferguson and George Kittle. Look for the Eagles to reintegrate Goedert to the passing game to try and create a spark. He’s got TE1 vibes in this playoff week.
Some of you will say I’m chasing the points here. It’s not an unfair argument after Njoku scored two touchdowns last week. I consider it an acknowledgement of the steady increase in production the Browns tight end has had for the past couple of months. Since Week 7, he’s the overall TE4, though he rarely gets mentioned among top options at the position.
Here’s my chance to correct that. Chicago’s defense has improved greatly against the pass since early in the season. In fairness, they haven’t faced a lot of great passing offenses but credit where it’s due for keeping those teams in check. However, they’ve still have had issues with tight ends. They’ve allowed the fourth-most catches and second-most touchdowns to the position. With Njoku getting a healthy target volume, he’s a solid TE1 in Week 15.
Defenses
So much of the fantasy conversation around the Falcons has centered on Arthur Smith’s stubborn refusal to scheme up pass plays targeting his #goodplayers. It’s overshadowed a defense that has made steady improvement from two seasons ago. Atlanta ranks in the upper half of the league in total defense and is in the top 10 against the pass.
That’s more than good enough to shut down a Panthers offense that has been punchless all season. Carolina’s offense ranks 30th overall. They’ve thrown for more than 200 yards just twice this season and have gone over 300 total yards just once in the last nine games. Bryce Young is under siege and getting little help from his pass-catchers. Atlanta’s D/ST scored 12 points against the Panthers in Week 1 and could match that number here in Week 15.
When we’ve talked sleeper defenses that could take fantasy managers through the playoffs, the Colts were near the top of the list. Now that the playoffs have come around, it’s time to test that theory. The first exam is a Pittsburgh Steelers team that feels like it’s hit rock bottom. Mike Tomlin’s squad has lost consecutive games to two-win teams. It’s also facing a second straight week with Mitchell Trubisky starting at quarterback. The first week … well, it didn’t go so hot.
A new play-caller hasn’t eased the Steelers’ offensive woes. They’ve scored fewer than 20 points in four straight games and have only topped 300 total yards once in that span. They’ve also surrendered seven sacks over the past four contests. The Colts are a top-three fantasy defense this season, thanks to double-digit fantasy points in four of their last five games. They have another chance to notch a good one this week.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man who should probably start wrapping some of these Christmas presents he bought. Send him your tales of laziness or fantasy football questions on Twitter @MarcasG or TikTok at marcasgrant.
