2024 NFL Draft: How three trends in pro football connect to this year's prospect class

The world of professional football is continuously changing. It’s like a never-ending chess game between those calling the offensive and defensive plays, leading to various strategies cycling in and out of popularity. As a result, the type of players entering the league shifts, mirroring changes in the game at more junior levels and influencing the makeup of each position group.

As the 2024 NFL Draft approaches, the team at Next Gen Stats has analyzed several significant trends that could provide insights into the future direction of the game and how teams could assess prospects in this year’s class.

1) Prospects are getting lighter and faster

At the NFL Scouting Combine earlier this year, Texas receiver Xavier Worthy put on an electrifying display of speed, setting a new record in the 40-yard dash with a time of 4.21 seconds. The exhilarating performance of the 165-pounder highlights the trend of prospects becoming lighter and faster, especially at his position.

Since 2003, wide receivers participating in the combine have run increasingly faster in the 40-yard dash, but no receiver class has been quicker than the 2024 crew, which just set the event on fire. In fact, the class clocked the fastest average 40 time (4.44) of any WR group over the last two decades. It’s important to note that not every NFL hopeful participates in the combine or in every drill; this year, for example, top prospects Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers both skipped testing. Only 30 receivers ran the 40 at the combine in 2024, the second fewest by any WR class since 2003. That said, nine of them (30 percent) ran it in under 4.40 seconds; that’s the highest percentage by any receiver class.

When analyzing speed, it is also crucial to factor in weight. In addition to being the fastest receiver class, the 2024 crop is the second lightest, averaging 196.1 pounds — lighter than the 2003 class by over 6 pounds. This is not just a one-year anomaly, either. The last four draft classes have featured the four lightest wide receiver groups since 2003. From 2003 to 2020, 820 wide receivers were invited to the combine. Only 25 of them (3 percent) weighed 175 pounds or less. Over these last four draft classes (including the 2024 group), the percentage of players checking in below that weight threshold has more than doubled, to 8.3 percent, with 15 total receivers weighing in at 175 pounds or less.

The trend extends well beyond the wide receiver position. The past few classes of quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, edge defenders, linebackers and safeties have all been among the lightest over the past two decades. The only positions that have bucked the trend are in the trenches: offensive linemen and defensive tackles. While lighter and faster edge defenders might be more explosive as pass rushers, they can become a liability when trying to set the edge in the run game. Similarly, new-look linebackers will be more equipped for coverage than taking on blocks and fitting the run.

Major shifts have been observed in the weight distributions of both edge rushers and linebackers since the start of the decade, with both groups now averaging nearly 5 pounds less. Between 2003 and 2019, 50% of incoming NFL linebackers weighed more than 239 pounds. However, in the past five draft classes, only 25% of linebackers met that weight. Similarly, edge rushers weighing over 265 pounds used to comprise nearly half of league entrants. But recent draft classes have seen a similar decline in their numbers.

This year’s class of edge defenders is, on average, 1.7 pounds lighter than any other class since 2003. The linebackers’ class is the second lightest in the same period. Both these classes recorded the second-fastest average 40 times for their respective positions.

The top four edge rushers in Daniel Jeremiah’s latest ranking of the top 50 prospects in the 2024 class (Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu and Chop Robinson) all weighed in under 260 pounds and clocked a sub-4.65 40. Payton Wilson, who is Jeremiah’s second-ranked linebacker this year, recorded a 4.43-second 40 at the combine. That places him in the top five among all linebackers to run at the combine since 2003.

2) QBs are taking longer to throw — but throwing shorter passes

In 2023, the average time taken to throw on non-play-action pass attempts hit a record high, making it the longest duration in the past eight seasons.

(A brief clarification: Calculating the time taken to make play-action passes is complex due to their distinct timing and traits. By leaving out play-action attempts in our analysis, we can provide a more straightforward understanding of the factors that impact the increase in time to throw.)

In 2016, Tyrod Taylor was the only quarterback to average more than 2.80 seconds on non-play-action attempts. In 2023, there were 10 QBs to top that mark, including league MVP Lamar Jackson, Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud. The group of 10 quarterbacks with a time to throw over 2.80 seconds in 2023 was the biggest in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). On the other side of the spectrum (and opposite the league trend), Tua Tagovailoa got the ball out at a rapid pace, as his time to throw on such passes this season was the quickest in the Next Gen Stats era.

Caleb Williams, who is widely presumed to be the first overall pick in this year’s draft, will enter a league that is much more suited to his skill set than it would have been in years past. Williams held onto the ball for 3.16 seconds before throwing on average in his final college season, the third-longest time to throw of any Power 5 quarterback, according to Pro Football Focus. Even just a few years ago, scouting staffs across the league might have wondered whether his free-wheeling play style would translate to the pros. Any such concerns have likely been tempered by the success of quarterbacks who are comfortable playing out of structure in the modern NFL.

Tagovailoa’s record-setting throwing time last season was impressive, but it’s not the only reason why the average time to throw reached a record high in the NGS era in 2023. The quick-pass rate, which measures passes thrown under 2.5 seconds, dropped 5.6 percentage points from 2016 to the current season. This decrease can be partly explained by quarterbacks extending plays more frequently than ever before. Consequently, the extended-pass rate, which measures passes thrown over 4.0 seconds, increased by 3.4 percentage points during the same period.

The trend of plays where the quarterback takes an extended time to throw has also been increasing. In 2016, there were 517 pass attempts where the time to throw exceeded 5 seconds. This number increased to 615 last season, a surge of almost 100 more attempts. This significant increase has contributed to the extended time to throw observed over the past eight seasons.

One might think that quarterbacks are improving as they prolong plays and maintain possession of the ball. However, the statistics, particularly completion percentage, suggest otherwise. Analysis of completion percentage for long passes over the past six seasons reveals that quarterbacks from 2022 and 2023 have collectively recorded the lowest and second-lowest figures, respectively (they also did the same for yards per attempt). Conversely, the completion percentage for quick passes has remained steady since 2018, consistently close to 73 percent each year.

While average time to throw has been steadily increasing, the league-average air-yards-per-attempt has been decreasing, a counterintuitive trend that has taken shape over the past few seasons.

When breaking down how average air yards per attempt has changed season-to-season by down, it becomes more apparent that quarterbacks have shifted their aggressiveness in certain scenarios, specifically on early downs. It is not surprising that air yards per attempt have held fairly steady on third downs from season to season, given that quarterbacks are required to be aggressive by the do-or-die nature of the situation. (Average air yards per attempt on non-play-action third-down passes remained between 8.9 and 9.1 yards in five out of six seasons since 2017.) On early downs, however, there has been a steady decline in aggressiveness. In 2017, the average air-yards-per-attempt figure was 7.6 yards on first down and 7.3 yards on second down, both of which stand as the highest single-season marks over the past seven seasons. In each of the past three seasons, though, average air yards per attempt failed to surpass the 7.0-yard threshold on first and second downs.

Some elite young quarterbacks have followed this trend. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen have all thrown the ball roughly a yard-and-a-half closer to the line of scrimmage on average since their third seasons as starters compared to their first two. This could be a sign of maturity, that they are learning to take the checkdown for easy yardage and matriculate the ball down the field.

A few of the top quarterback prospects from this year’s draft class were very aggressive pushing the ball downfield in their final collegiate season. Per PFF, Drake Maye averaged 11.0 air yards per attempt and Michael Penix Jr. averaged 10.7, both ranking in the top 10 among Power 5 quarterbacks (minimum of 200 attempts). Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels was close behind them, throwing the ball on average 10.5 yards down the field. It is reasonable to assume that aggression is likely to continue as the quarterbacks transition to the pro game, as it will take time to develop patience and be willing to take open windows underneath.

Bo Nix stands as the outlier. Nix leaned on the quick game in college, averaging the third-quickest time to throw (2.44 seconds) among Power 5 quarterbacks during his last season at Oregon. As a result, he averaged just 6.8 air yards per attempt. Only one Power 5 quarterback with at least 200 attempts (Graham Mertz) threw the ball closer to the line of scrimmage.

We don’t know exactly how these prospects will fit into the trend, but we can try to connect some dots as to why NFL QBs are taking more time to make shorter throws. Let’s start with some defensive changes. Likely in an effort to limit big plays, NFL defenses used zone coverage on 71.6 percent of plays this past season, the highest rate in a season since 2018. Additionally, the league-wide split-safety rate — which was 33.7 percent in 2018 — has increased in five consecutive seasons, all the way to 42.1 percent in 2023.

It’s no surprise that as defenses implement a keep-everything-in-front-of-them strategy, average time to throw has increased. Since 2018, the league-wide average time to throw against zone coverage is 2.80 seconds, a full tenth of a second longer than the time to throw against man coverage (2.70 seconds). And this also explains the decrease in depth of target on early downs. QBs likely aren’t holding on to the ball longer because they’re getting time to let plays develop and rip it downfield; rather, they’re reacting to defenses that sell out to limit downfield success. QBs are then likely taking checkdowns more frequently because that is what defenses are allowing for.

Patrick Mahomes perfectly embodies this counterintuitive relationship. Last season, Mahomes registered his slowest throw time and fewest air yards per attempt in his career. Consequently, he became the first of 228 qualified passers since 2017 to record a throw time exceeding 2.90 seconds while averaging less than 7.0 air yards per attempt.

3) The Shanahan effect is real

The influence that Kyle Shanahan (and his father, former NFL coach Mike Shanahan) have on the NFL is often discussed. But beyond compiling a list of coaches who have worked for or with either Shanahan, is it possible to quantify their impact? What does the Shanahan effect actually look like?

To address that query, we should begin by investigating shifts and motions, techniques utilized by coaches to expose coverage schemes, generate mismatches, and strategically place offensive assets in beneficial circumstances.

In 2016, the majority of NFL offenses employed shifts or motions only occasionally, with the average usage rate being 38 percent of plays. However, the Atlanta Falcons, under the guidance of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, were a notable exception, utilizing shifts or motions a league-high 61 percent of the time. This top-scoring offense propelled Atlanta to the Super Bowl. Subsequently, Shanahan was appointed as the coach of the 49ers, who led the NFL in shift/motion usage each year from 2017 to 2021. They came in second in this category in 2022 and 2023. As a result, the overall NFL shift/motion usage has increased each year, soaring to 54 percent in 2023.

Which coach bested Shanahan in shift/motion usage over the past two seasons? You guessed it: former Shanahan assistant Mike McDaniel. With McDaniel as their head coach, the Dolphins used shift/motion on 78 percent of plays in 2022 and 80 percent in 2023, with the latter figure setting a new record for a team in the NGS era (since 2016). Compare these figures to Miami’s usage of shift/motion before McDaniel; in the six seasons prior to McDaniel’s hiring (2016-2021), the Dolphins employed shift/motion on 44 percent of offensive plays, peaking at 56 percent in 2021.

As expected, Miami set another NGS single-season record in 2023, accumulating a massive 2,955 yards through shift/motion tactics. They were closely followed by Shanahan’s 49ers, who managed 2,887 yards. Additionally, other teams associated with Shanahan made it to the top 10. Sean McVay’s Rams came in fifth in terms of yards and third in usage rate, registering 71.9 percent. Meanwhile, Matt LaFleur’s Packers were seventh in yards and sixth in usage rate, recording 66.7 percent.

The 2024 NFL Draft will feature one of the deepest and most dynamic wide receiver classes in recent memory, and one of the top prospects in particular was featured heavily in pre-snap motion at the college level, to help get the ball in his hands and create mismatches. Malik Nabers, the fourth-ranked prospect on Daniel Jeremiah’s big board, gained 239 receiving yards after being used in a motion last season (fifth-most in the Power 5), according to PFF. He went in motion on 57 routes, ranking in the top 15, and picked up 12 first downs on such routes (third-most).

Shanahan and his followers appear to be fostering another significant trend: the deliberate use of condensed formations and narrow formation widths. These condensed formations generate more open field, compelling cornerbacks to adopt outside leverage to defend this open space.

The narrative is comparable to shifts/motion. In 2016, NFL offenses typically utilized condensed formations 11 percent of the time. However, Shanahan’s Falcons significantly exceeded this average, employing condensed formations in 25.4 percent of their plays, only surpassed by the Titans at 30 percent. Since 2016, Shanahan has consistently raised his condensed formation rate annually, peaking in the NGS era with a 63.9 percent rate in 2023. The Niners also made history by being the first team to have an average formation width of less than 20 yards in a season since 2016, with a measurement of 19.9 yards. Unsurprisingly, the league-wide condensed-formation rate has also surged, reaching 30 percent in 2023. Additionally, the league-wide average formation width has decreased by almost 4 yards since 2016, going from 28.3 to 24.6 yards.

Looking at the top users of condensed formations over the past few seasons, it’s not surprising to see more associates of Shanahan. McVay’s Rams were the NFL leaders in this category from 2017 to 2020, ranking third in 2021-22 and second in the last season. McDaniel’s Dolphins were the NFL leaders in 2022 and came in third in 2023. LaFleur’s Packers came in third in 2020 and fifth in 2023. Moreover, considering the Texans in the last season, who have Bobby Slowik, a former Shanahan assistant, as their offensive coordinator, and the Jets in 2021, who had Mike LaFleur, a former Shanahan assistant and Matt LaFleur’s brother, as their offensive coordinator, either Shanahan or someone he worked with was accountable for 18 of the top 20 single-season condensed usage rates from 2016.

That’s not to say everyone in this group approaches the game exactly the same way. Each coach adjusts to maximize their team’s roster construction, as illustrated by a divergence in offensive formations. The Rams led the NFL in usage of 11 personnel (94.6 percent of plays) in 2023, while the 49ers (38.8 percent) and Dolphins (44.4 percent) used 11 personnel at the second and third lowest rates, respectively. On the other hand, Miami (42.2 percent) and San Francisco (36.2 percent) topped the NFL in usage of 21 personnel, while the Rams were one of four teams to not record a single play in the formation last season.

Nonetheless, by examining the statistics, one cannot overlook how Shanahan and his peers with similar views are influencing the league.

Chace Daskalos & Jack Habegger contributed to this article.