2023 NFL season, Week 18: Four things to watch for in Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Colts on Saturday night
Three of the four teams in action for Saturday’s doubleheader are treating Week 18 as a must-win situation. The other team has the option to rest starters if it so chooses.
After they blasted the Dolphins in Week 17, the Baltimore Ravens earned the top playoff seed in the AFC and the all-important bye and home-field advantage that come with that honor.
They can take the next two weeks off if they want, and nothing will change that.
But Saturday’s regular-season finale isn’t against just any old team, however. It’s against the hated Steelers, who are desperate to get into the postseason and sure could use another victory to help secure a spot.
There were no Christmas cards exchanged in this rivalry, and the Steelers hold the distinction of being one of three teams to beat the Ravens this season, holding them to a season-low 10 points back in Week 5 in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers also have beaten the Ravens six of the past seven times they’ve faced, including three straight in Baltimore and in their only meeting this season. Each of the past seven meetings has been decided by seven points or less.
Lamar Jackson, now viewed as the league’s MVP favorite, will sit in Week 18, as Tyler Huntley will get the start. The Ravens’ motivation now turns toward knocking their rivals out of the postseason, even if beating them can’t accomplish that by itself (the Steelers’ still hold a 14% chance of making the playoffs with a loss, per Next Gen Stats).
There are realistic scenarios for Pittsburgh to get into the postseason. A win at Baltimore, plus either the Jaguars or Bills losing, gets them in. The Steelers also can lose and get in if these three things also happen: Jacksonville and Denver winning, plus Texans-Colts not ending in a tie.
For the Colts and Texans, the formula is a lot simpler. The winner of Saturday night’s game is in as a wild card at least, and they’d take the AFC South crown combined with a Jaguars loss Sunday at Tennessee. It’s no surprise that the teams’ rookie head coaches, DeMeco Ryans and Shane Steichen, are in the Coach of the Year running, with Saturday’s winner likely receiving a nice little bump to his candidacy.
Can Gardner Minshew and the feisty Colts get it done? Or will rookie C.J. Stroud carry the Texans on his shoulders to victory in Indianapolis?
Here are four things to watch for when the Steelers visit the Ravens and the Texans visit the Colts on Saturday:
- WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
- WHEN: 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN, ABC, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes, NFL+
- Steelers hope Rudolph has more magic left. Hardly a week can go by without Steelers drama, with the decision to start Mason Rudolph over a now-healthy-and-practicing Kenny Pickett the latest turn. But head coach Mike Tomlin has regained control of his team, winning two games with Rudolph after all hope appeared to be lost, and you can bet Rudolph is relishing his career revival after idling for a few years. In the past two games, he has looked poised, controlled and confident. He has completed nearly 70% of his passes, not turned the ball over and consistently has put the ball in the hands of the Steelers’ playmakers — namely George Pickens — in the Steelers’ two best offensive performances of the season. In two full games with Rudolph, Pickens has 326 yards receiving and two touchdowns. In his other 14 combined games, he has 814 yards and three scores. The Ravens’ defensive numbers are elite. They rank ninth in passing yards allowed but are first in sacks (57) and have allowed the fewest TD passes this season (17). But how many of those players will play? Among the Baltimore defenders who are ruled out are linebacker Malik Harrison and Marlon Humphrey and Daryl Worley, with others such as safety Kyle Hamilton questionable. As badly as John Harbaugh might want to beat the Steelers, his own team’s long-term goals are bigger.
- Huntley hopes to knock off Steelers in his first start of the season. Saturday will be Tyler Huntley’s first start in nearly a year when he lost the wild-card game at Cincinnati despite playing pretty well outside of two turnovers. The Ravens likely won’t ask Huntley to do anything too wild in this game, but his starting experience — with three of those games against the Steelers the past two seasons — will help give them confidence in attacking Pittsburgh. Huntley’s numbers aren’t great against the Steelers, completing fewer than 60% of his passes, turning the ball over four times (three picks, one lost fumble) and averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. But he’s also a quality scrambler, having run for 127 yards in those past three meetings. With Minkah Fitzpatrick and Elandon Roberts (both questionable) potentially back, Pittsburgh could be in better shape defensively than they’ve been the past few weeks, needing to start the unretired Myles Jack at linebacker and shifting Eric Rowe and Patrick Peterson to safety without Fitzpatrick and Roberts available. In the first meeting against the Ravens this season, the Steelers shut the Ravens out for the final 42-plus minutes of the game, as Fitzpatrick tied for a team-high nine tackles, Roberts made a key third-down stop in the fourth quarter, and T.J. Watt (two sacks) and Alex Highsmith (one sack) led a tenacious pass rush against the Jackson-led Ravens.
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- WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN, ABC, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes, NFL+
- C.J. Stroud returned just in time for the Texans. Stroud missed two games with a concussion but returned last week to turn in a solid, clean showing against the Titans, completing 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown, with zero turnovers. He was much more prolific against the Colts in Week 2, however, throwing for 392 yards (190 in the fourth quarter alone) despite losing, 31-20. Stroud won’t have Tank Dell, who was a Colts irritant in that game, but he will have Nico Collins and Robert Woods, who combined to catch 13 balls for 220 yards and a score between them. The Colts racked up six sacks (by six players) in the first meeting, including three in the fourth quarter, and a whopping 28 total pressures, which is the most by the Colts in a game since 2018. Laremy Tunsil, who is questionable, left the game early for the Texans, which can explain some of the protection issues, although they clearly need to be sharper in this one. The Colts are not a big blitz team, but they’ve generated pressure on 42.5% of opposing dropbacks since Week 9, which is the second-highest rate in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. Defensive back Kenny Moore (questionable) could also return, which would give the secondary a big boost. Stroud mostly attacked the Titans underneath in Week 17, but in this game, the Texans likely will want him to open things up more. He has thrown past the sticks on a league-high 47.1% of his pass attempts this season and has 959 yards on deep passes this season, the most by a rookie in the NGS era.
- Colts offense hoping to end recent inconsistencies. The Colts offense has been a curious thing this season, especially lately. It has ping-ponged back and forth between good and bad performances the past four games versus similar-caliber teams to Houston, so it’s hard to know what to expect from Indy weekly. Keeping Jonathan Taylor healthy is one big factor, but so is the offensive line, which features three starters on the current injury list. Taylor looked far better in Week 17 against the Raiders (104 scrimmage yards) than he had in his first game back from a thumb injury, and they’ll need him with Zack Moss’ status up in the air. But running the ball against the Texans is difficult, which means that Gardner Minshew and his receivers will be counted on extensively. Minshew played very well in the first meeting between these two teams, coming off the bench to complete 19 of 23 passes for 171 yards. Incredibly, the Texans have forced one or more turnovers in every game except one: Week 2 against the Colts. That game might have been the Texans’ all-around worse defensive performance of the season, although they weren’t much better (if at all) a few weeks back against the Browns. Houston was excellent defensively last week against the Titans, with six sacks, and that pass rush will be key Saturday. The Texans want to pressure Minshew but want to keep him pinned in the pocket, where he’s a less effective operator. Houston also was unable to sack either Minshew or Anthony Richardson in the first meeting and both QBs had success extending plays.
