2023 NFL season, Week 16: What We Learned from Sunday's games

New England Patriots

4-11

26-23

Denver Broncos

7-8

FULL BOX SCORE

Brenna White’s takeaways:

1. Patriots victorious in Holiday Classic nail-biter. By the beginning of the fourth quarter, it appeared to be an easy win for New England, but the Broncos managed to come back from a 16-point deficit and tied it up at 23 in the fourth quarter. With 58 seconds left to go, Bailey Zappe guided the Patriots toward victory with a seven-play, 43-yard drive to allow kicker Chad Ryland to be a Christmas Eve hero. Ryland nailed the 56-yarder for the win, virtually erasing from memory his two missed FGs earlier in the game. Zappe arguably had his best performance, completing 24 of 33 for 256 yards and two touchdowns for a 117.7 passer rating. His best throw of many came on the final drive, connecting with DeVante Parker on a 27-yard strike on third down to set up Ryland’s game-winner. It was an eye-opening performance by Zappe, who was strip-sacked on the game’s opening play. But the 24-year-old persevered through it all and has now won two of his last three starts.
2. Christian Barmore‘s career day spurs Patriots’ defense. New England’s defense was hungry for sacks and turnovers as its Christmas Eve meal, and Barmore took it upon himself to enjoy a heaping helping. The defensive tackle had a career-high 3.0 sacks and highlighted a defensive line that absolutely tormented Russell Wilson throughout. Barmore added eight tackles, four QB hits, two tackles for loss and a forced fumble on the night. The Patriots D sacked Wilson a total of five times (nine QB hits) for a loss of 45 yards, and the consistent pressure agitated the Broncos offense into a rhythmless display that produced just seven points entering the fourth quarter. The Patriots’ special teams also had a hand in the one-sided game through three quarters, scoring on a fumbled kick return to enter the final frame with a 23-7 lead. Although it wasn’t perfect, the defensive display from New England provided some hope late in a lost season, and they have a stellar young disruptor to build around in Barmore.
3. Broncos fall short of comeback, nearly out of playoff hunt. Denver had the opportunity to get going from the jump, strip-sacking Zappe on the first play of the game and setting up the offense for free, easy points. But the Broncos couldn’t punch it in from the 6-yard line and turned the ball over on downs. The struggles on offense persisted despite the Patriots stumbling out of the gate and Denver scoring the first TD of the game. Wilson spread the ball around the best he could as he avoided constant pressure. With Courtland Sutton ruled out on the first half, connections with Jerry Jeudy (three receptions, 44 yards) and Marvin Mims Jr. (three receptions, 63 yards) blossomed as Denver came back late in the game. But it wasn’t enough after two touchdowns and a pair of two-point conversions, rendering Denver on the outside looking in of a muddled playoff race, The Broncos have just a 5% chance of making the playoffs after this loss, per Next Gen Stats. 

NFL Research: Bailey Zappe joined Tom Brady (17 times) and Drew Bledsoe (Week 14, 2000) as the only Patriots QBs since at least 1970 to win a prime-time game with 250-plus pass yards, two-plus pass TDs, and no INTs.

Next Gen Stat of the game: Bailey Zappe was most successful on longer drop backs, completing 12 of 16 attempts for 138 yards and a touchdown on passes with a time to throw over 2.5 seconds (+24.7% CPOE).

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 · 8-7-0

30-12

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 · 8-7-0

FULL BOX SCORE

• READ: Jaguars QB Lawrence (shoulder) to be evaluated after loss
• READ: Mayfield has been ‘outstanding’ with Buccaneers ‘clawing’ toward playoffs

Nick Shook’s takeaways:

1. Accept it: Baker Mayfield is ballin’ in 2023. Fresh off a perfect passer rating in Week 15, Mayfield put together another excellent performance in a fashion that has become his trademark. He completed 26 of 35 passes for 283 yards and two dimes to Mike Evans for touchdowns, but what impressed me most is what has also been most prevalent throughout his resurgent 2023 season: He just doesn’t give up. On one particular play, Mayfield broke a sack and escaped a mass of humanity, then rumbled through traffic like a running back, lowering a shoulder before crashing to the ground — all for a gain of two or so yards. That type of determination is what has powered Mayfield to this unlikely campaign, which now has the Buccaneers on the verge of winning the NFC South thanks to four straight wins. I have a hard time believing any of the other starting-caliber quarterbacks available in the 2023 offseason would have been able to get the Buccaneers to this point. Credit is due to Mayfield, offensive coordinator Dave Canales and Rachaad White, whose contributions (prior to Sunday) unlocked this offense. Now, the Buccaneers are in the driver’s seat for the division crown, and just might have their quarterback of the future already on their roster.
2. The Jaguars are collapsing before our eyes. Jacksonville has now lost four straight games, and Sunday was their worst defeat since San Francisco stole their lunch and dinner back in Week 10. To make matters worse, Trevor Lawrence suffered yet another injury, this time to his throwing shoulder. If you pulled up a graphic of Lawrence’s physique, 60% of his silhouette would be red with injuries. Knee, ankle and now shoulder issues have bothered him, and he simply doesn’t look healthy. Communication issues and a lack of protection didn’t help Sunday, either, and if the Jaguars don’t have their QB near 100% healthy, the going will be tough no matter the opponent. With Indianapolis and Houston still nipping at their heels, Jacksonville is running out of time to get things right. They better hope Lawrence can find a way to overcome yet another injury before next week.
3. Devin White delivers a well-timed statement. White’s name was in headlines during the lead-up to Sunday’s game because of his surprise scratch in Week 15, which was rumored to be caused by a difference in opinion regarding his usage. White quelled such rumors by promising he’d never quit on his team, then suited up and answered his critics with action. White picked off Lawrence early in this contest, recorded four tackles, had a season-high six pressures, one half-sack and would have had another in a key moment if not for a terrible roughing the passer penalty he drew for simply tossing C.J. Beathard to the ground. It wasn’t a legendary performance, but for a linebacker who was being publicly maligned in the final quarter of a contract year, Sunday was the perfect answer in a dominant showing for the Buccaneers.

NFL Research: Mike Evans recorded his 20th career game with multiple receiving TDs and is the seventh wide receiver to have 20 or more career games with multiple receiving TDs in the Super Bowl era.

Next Gen Stat of the game: Baker Mayfield generated a +14 passing expected points added Sunday, his second most in a game this season.

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Chicago Bears

2023 · 6-9-0

27-16

Arizona Cardinals

2023 · 3-12-0

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Eric Edholm’s takeaways:

1. Bears battle injuries to hold off Cardinals. Chicago’s playoff hopes are all but over, but you wouldn’t have known it after watching the early intensity and focus on Sunday. The Bears scored three straight touchdowns in the first half and also forced three straight punts on defense against the Cardinals, taking a 21-0 lead less than 22 minutes into the game. Both Bears units regressed, as the Cardinals made it a one-score game with six minutes remaining, but Chicago would finish it with a fourth-down stop on defense and a late field goal on offense. It’s understandable why the Bears struggled to put it away. Cole Kmet had a monster first half with four catches for 104 yards, including catches of 20, 29 and 53 yards, but he left with an injury and never returned. D.J. Moore left the game with a first-half injury before returning and having his lowest receiving output (18 yards) of the season. Justin Fields also struggled after halftime as a passer, completing only 5 of 10 passes for 35 yards and an interception in the end zone. But Fields was terrific as a runner (9 carries, 97 yards; TD), and he was complemented by Khalil Herbert, who had 112 yards rushing and a touchdown in his best game in a few months.
2. Cardinals’ early defensive breakdowns were too much to overcome. Unlike last week when they hung with the 49ers early, the Cardinals found themselves in a 21-zip hole early against the Bears thanks to some defensive breakdowns and a slow start from the offense. Arizona’s defense has now allowed 400-plus yards in four of the past five games, and the run defense especially has been problematic, giving up 1,047 yards (including 250 Sunday) on the ground. Herbert gutted Arizona for 14 yards up the gut on the first play, setting the tone. Zaven Collins lost contain on Fields’ second-quarter rushing TD. Dante Stills lost contain on Fields’ 39-yard scramble in the second half, and Dennis Gardeck notably whiffed on a tackle attempt. The run fits were bad, but there were other breakdowns, too. Starling Thomas’ end-zone hold wiped out an early sack, and the Cardinals lost track of Marcedes Lewis on his second-quarter TD. Kyler Murray and the offense made it interesting, scoring 16 of the next 19 points after falling behind, but it wasn’t enough. For this team to take the next step next season, sure, the offense could stand to be better. But the late-season defensive warts — even with a solid second half Sunday — show that this team has plenty to address on that side of the ball this offseason.
3. Bears still learning how to close out games. Through 15 games, the Bears have played teams cumulatively close in the first three quarters of games, outscoring their opponents in the first (plus-13) and third quarters (plus-2) and only being outscored by eight points in second quarters. For whatever reason, though, the Bears have struggled in more fourth quarters than not, with a minus-27 point differential in the final 15 minutes. That scoring edge for Arizona on Sunday didn’t cost the Bears the game, but they were fortunate they weren’t playing a more complete opponent. Fields threw a pick with just over 10 minutes left — his sixth fourth-quarter pick of the year — with the Bears trying to protect a two-TD lead. That followed with a defensive breakdown on the ensuing possession, as Cardinals WR Greg Dortch made Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson look silly on 38-yard TD with 6:37 left. Stopping Arizona’s two-point try, the Bears held on late. But their late breakdowns this season, especially in recent losses to the Lions and Browns where they led by two-plus scores, show that Chicago is still not a complete team despite playing very competitive ball after an 0-4 start.

NFL Research: Since 2020, Bears K Cairo Santos is 46 of 50 on field-goal attempts at Soldier Field, and he’s a perfect 13 of 13 there this season. 

Next Gen stat of the game: Justin Fields did most of his work as a passer on longer drop backs (142 of his 170 passing yards), with an average time to throw against Arizona of 3.55 seconds, the longest by Fields in a game this season. Fields was sacked only once despite being pressured 14 times (on 42.4% of drop backs).

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Miami Dolphins

2023 · 11-4-0

22-20

Dallas Cowboys

2023 · 10-5-0

FULL BOX SCORE

• READ: Fins clinch back-to-back playoff berth in win over DAL
• READ: McCarthy after loss: ‘Road warriors we will be’

Kevin Patra’s takeaways:

1. Dolphins grind out win to punch playoff ticket. Jason Sanders booted the game-winning field goal as time expired to clinch a postseason berth and snuff out the narrative that Miami can’t beat a heavyweight opponent. Having lost to the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs earlier this season, the Dolphins entered Sunday with a chance to shut down talk they couldn’t hang with the big boys. Miami’s defense stepped up early, getting a first-drive turnover at the goal line, and stymied the Cowboys for much of the second and third quarters. The only forced turnover of the game proved to be massive, and the Dolphins pressure provided by Andrew Van Ginkel (eight QB pressures), Bradley Chubb (five pressures), and Zach Sieler (four pressures) did enough to slow a potent Cowboys attack. It wasn’t the prettiest win of Mike McDaniel’s tenure, but it proved they could succeed in mucking it up with a playoff opponent.
2. Tua, Tyreek respond with big fourth-quarter drive. In a matchup between two of the most impressive offenses this season, boasting big plays and points in bunches, it figures we’d see seven combined field goals. That’s pretty much how 2023 has gone — expect one thing, get another. Miami’s offense moved the ball well between the 20s but repeatedly bogged down as the Cowboys D, led by Micah Parsons (eight QB pressures), did a good job discombobulating Miami in critical spots. After the Cowboys took their first lead of the second half with an impressive 17-play TD drive, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and the Miami offense responded with a clinical chain-moving drive to win the game. Tua went 4-of-5 passing on the game-winning possession, including a pivotal 10-yarder to Hill on third-and-3 at the two-minute warning. Jeff Wilson took over for there, and the Dolphins iced the game, setting up Sanders’ heroics. It was a drive that said as much about Miami’s chances in January as any this season.
3. Cowboys stumble on the road yet again. One narrative won’t die Sunday. Dallas continues to get stuck in the mud on the road, unable to consistently move the ball over the course of the game. CeeDee Lamb burst out of the gate with five catches for 93 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter. He didn’t see the ball again until the final frame. Dallas sorely missed Tyron Smith as the offensive line proving a sieve too often Sunday. Credit Dak Prescott for leading a fantastic go-ahead drive late in the fourth quarter, which included converting several third downs and a crucial fourth down near midfield. Prescott dropped a dime on a fantastic catch by Brandin Cooks to take the lead, but their misses in the middle portion of the game (two first downs over four non-kneel drives) came back to bite Mike McCarthy’s club on the road. Dallas falls to 3-5 away from home on the season — not a good omen if they can’t overtake Philly for the NFC East crown. 

NFL Research: Tyreek Hill had nine catches for 99 receiving yards in return from an ankle injury (missed Week 15). Hill has 1,641 receiving yards in 2023 and needs 70 receiving yards to break his own MIA record. 

Next Gen stat of the day: Every one of Micah Parsons’ 8 pressures against the Dolphins came in under 2.5 seconds (1.95-second average time to pressure). The rest of the Cowboys pass rush combined for five total pressures.

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Atlanta Falcons

2023 · 7-8-0

29-10

Indianapolis Colts

2023 · 8-7-0

FULL BOX SCORE

• READ: HC Steichen feels Colts’ low-scoring loss ‘wasn’t us’

Eric Edholm’s takeaways:

1. Taylor Heinecke gave Falcons enough of what they needed. The Falcons felt they had no choice but to go back to Heinecke after Desmond Ridder’s struggles, and Heinecke delivered a strong performance to keep the Falcons in the running in the NFC South. He was more accurate and confident Sunday compared to his two starts earlier this season, and it set the tone for one of Atlanta’s most complete games of the season. There were a few shaky moments early that won’t show up in the box score, including two dropped potential interceptions. But Heinecke settled down nicely, completing 16 of 22 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown in the first half. On the opening drive of the second half, Heinecke even threw a block for Bijan Robinson (even if Heinecke all but tackled Robinson) on a TD drive, no doubt earning some tough-guy cred from his teammates. The Falcons did leave some points on the board, misplaying the end of the first half and settling for too many field goals, but four second-half scoring drives and excellent play from the Falcons defense helped seal the game. Heinecke gave Atlanta what it badly needed: efficiency and stability.
2. Colts’ mistakes too costly in tough setback. The Colts were up against it in their quest to remain in the playoff race, with wideout Michael Pittman Jr. out with injury and safety Julian Blackmon suffering a shoulder injury in the first half. They took a 7-0 lead with an impressive opening drive and a TD from the recently returned Jonathan Taylor. But that was about the peak of the game for Indianapolis, as there were regrettable plays on both sides of the ball that allowed the Falcons to take control and never really relinquish it. Gardner Minshew misfired on 17 of his 37 passes and was sacked six times, as right tackle Blake Freeland struggled with Calais Campbell early and guard Quenton Nelson and LT Bernhard Raimann also struggled in pass protection. Down 23-10 with eight minutes left, Minshew heaved a prayer of a pass that was picked, all but ending any comeback hopes. The Colts’ defense also had its share of struggles. E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin both had possible INTs go through their hands, and they allowed a crucial third-and-14 conversion on a 15-yard screen in the second half. Even the special teams gave up points, as an offsides on a field goal miss gave the Falcons a second crack, gifting them three points. It’s not hard to see how it fell apart. 
3. Falcons lean on RBs, defense, kicking to deliver massive win. With Heinecke back at quarterback, the Falcons opted for a ball-control approach, spreading it around with the short passing game and leading on their stout rushing attack. It wasn’t new or inventive, but it was effective. Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson had 38 combined touches, racking up 243 of Atlanta’s 406 yards. This allowed them to shorten the game in the second half, minimizing the number of possessions the Colts had to come back. Robinson couldn’t avoid stepping out of bounds on what should have been a TD catch in the first half, leading to a field goal, but he had a strong bounceback game after last week, racking up 122 scrimmage yards. The Falcons’ defense has quietly been a strong group all season, and they held firm for four quarters, allowing only 262 yards — the seventh time the defense has given up fewer than 300 in a game — and sacking Minshew six times, getting a lot of pressure without blitzing a ton. Younghou Koo delivered five field goals, helping Atlanta get back in the race for now.

NFL Research: Falcons TE Kyle Pitts caught his third receiving TD of the 2023 season, which is a career high. He had only three combined in his first two seasons.

Next Gen stat of the game: The Falcons defense allowed the Colts to gain more yards than expected on 4 of 21 designed runs (19.0%), limiting them to 61 yards and a TD on 21 carries. Bud Dupree generated 4 run stops, tied for his highest run stop rate in a game (28.6%) in the NGS era (since 2016).

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Green Bay Packers

7-8

33-30

Carolina Panthers

2-13

FULL BOX SCORE

Kevin Patra’s takeaways:

1. Packers survive late-game collapse for pivotal road win to keep postseason hopes afloat. It was the Aaron Jones show early, as the running back generated 90 scrimmage yards in the first quarter. Behind Jones’ play, the Packers rushed out to a 23-10 halftime lead. Jordan Love managed the game well, finding open targets and getting Green Bay into the right play. But two fourth-quarter three-and-outs, coupled with a crumbling defense, allowed the Panthers back into the contest. After Carolina tied the game, Love answered with a massive 36-yard shot to Romeo Doubs on third-and-4, which set up the game-winning field goal. With Jones the motor and Love avoiding mistakes, the offense played well on balance despite missing several weapons to keep the Pack in the playoff hunt.
2. Bryce Young continues to improve down the stretch. Much like his season, the early play from the rookie was rough. Young missed a bucket-full of balls high in the opening frame, stalling drives. But as the game wore on, the signal-caller settled in, avoided catastrophic mistakes, and diced up the Packers’ defense. Gone were the poor misses, replaced by strikes on the move and in-rhythm darts. Young peppered the middle of the field in key spots and found D.J. Chark for a gorgeous TD to cut the lead. After the D got the ball back, Young again led a game-tying drive. He finished with a career-high 312 yards, two TDs, a career-best 8.9 yards per attempt, and a 113.0 passer rating, the best number of his first season. The game ended in a loss, but Young’s play over the last two weeks will bring more optimism for a 2-win club heading into the offseason.
3. Green Bay’s defense continues to be a struggle. It’s good that Matt LaFleur’s offense put up its first 30-plus point day since Week 1 because Joe Barry’s defense still has no answers. Miscommunications plague the group. No one seems to give up third-and-longs easier. Penalties persist. Green Bay allowed a Panthers offense that hadn’t scored 20-plus points since Week 5 and no touchdowns the past two tilts to march up and down the field. Barry’s defense gave up 394 yards, 26 first downs, and 6.4 yards per play on the day. With games against Minnesota and Chicago left, Barry’s defense could keep Green Bay from making a postseason run unless they figure things out in short order.

NFL Research: Jordan Love finished 17-28, 219 pass yards, two pass TD, & 109.1 passer rating. Love has a 100-plus passer rating in five of the last six games. Love earned the 10th season in Packers history of a QB throwing two-plus pass TD and zero INT in seven-plus games (Others: Aaron Rodgers 7 times & Brett Favre 2 times).

Next Gen stat of the day: Jordan Love at CAR against zone 15-22, 206 pass yards, 1 pass touchdown, and 113.1 passer rating. 

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Cleveland Browns

10-5

36-22

Houston Texans

8-7

FULL BOX SCORE

• READ: WR Amari Cooper on 265-yard day: ‘I’m unguardable’

Nick Shook’s takeaways:

1. Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper, the perfect Christmas pairing. Flacco’s fireworks display began on Cleveland’s first play from scrimmage, a 53-yard strike to Cooper to set up Cleveland’s first score. That play set the tone for what was to come: a masterful display of two veterans working together to tear down a defense, brick by brick. Though they were playing in just their fourth game together, Flacco and Cooper showed off an incredible rapport, teaming up for eye-popping 11 completions for 265 yards — a Browns single-game franchise receiving record — and two touchdowns. Nobody in Houston could stop this connection, which powered the Browns to a double-digit victory that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated.
2. C.J. Stroud can’t come back soon enough. I could use this space to lament Houston’s defensive failures against Cleveland, but I’ll spare them because the Texans’ offense did them zero favors Sunday. Houston finished with 250 yards of offense, and 152 of that total came in a fourth quarter than began with the Texans trailing 36-7. Cleveland’s pass rush overwhelmed Case Keenum, who threw two interceptions off deflections and struggled mightily to sustain a drive throughout his afternoon. Davis Mills‘ showing looks better on paper, but it came against Cleveland’s backups. Simply, neither is a quality option, and Houston has suffered because of Stroud’s absence. They were no match for the high-flying spectacular that was the Flacco and Co. show, and it leaves me wondering if they’d have been able to keep up with Stroud in the lineup. At 8-7, there’s no more time to waste if the Texans want to finish this turnaround season with a playoff berth.
3. Injury bug strikes Browns’ special teams. We’ve told the story of the Browns’ incredibly bad injury luck this season. They’re on their fourth quarterback, Nick Chubb has been out since well before daylight savings set in, etc. But while these Browns have been forced to find fixes all over their roster, they’ve been able to count on an unlikely hero — kicker Dustin Hopkins — to reliably produce throughout 2023. That changed on Sunday, when Hopkins suffered a hamstring injury while chasing Dameon Pierce on the running back’s 98-yard kick-return touchdown. Hopkins was ruled out, Cleveland was forced to go for it on every remaining fourth down in scoring range, and is now staring at a harsh reality of needing yet another replacement. For the first time since the days of Phil Dawson, the Browns had a kicker they could count on. That may no longer be reality, depending on what happens with Hopkins. For a team that has consistently won on the margins, this could end up being a big problem in the next two (or more) weeks.

NFL Research: Joe Flacco joined Josh McCown (2015) as the only Browns quarterbacks to have 300-plus yards in three straight games.

Next Gen stat of the game: Amari Cooper had four receptions for 148 yards and two touchdowns on targets with less than a 33% completion probability Sunday, the most such yards in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). He gained +139 receiving yards over expected, the most RYOE in a game this season, and +4.4 receptions over expected. He also generated an expected points added of +23.2, the most by any player in 2023 and the most by a receiver in a single game in the Next Gen Stats era.

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Detroit Lions

11-4

30-24

Minnesota Vikings

7-8

FULL BOX SCORE

• READ: Lions hold off Vikes for first division title since 1993

Eric Edholm’s takeaways:

1. Lions’ defense came up with key late stops to clinch division title. Detroit’s defense took it on the chin as the team appeared a bit shaky around midseason, but it has been a more effective — and clutch — group in recent games. The Vikings trailed 30-24 (thanks to a Lions extra-point try blocked) with two-plus minutes left and the ball at their 12-yard line. Julian Okwara delivered the first big play on the final drive, strip-sacking Nick Mullens and resulting in a 9-yard loss, but the Lions’ John Cominsky couldn’t corral the loose ball despite it hitting his hands. On the next play — third-and-27 — Justin Jefferson made an insane catch at the first-down sticks, setting up Cominsky’s blunder as the regrettable play. But Ifeatu Melifonwu, who was everywhere Sunday and who has been playing some strong ball of late, picked off Mullens’ pass in Jefferson’s direction at the 5-yard line, sealing a franchise-changing victory on the road against their rivals. It was one of four Lions interceptions, and they also had four sacks of Mullens. After allowing the Vikings to take the lead on their opening drive of the second half, Detroit’s defense forced a three-and-out, the third INT of the game, a field goal (stopping Minnesota inside the 10-yard line) and the game-clinching pick to end it.
2. Mullens has big moments for Vikings but also too many mistakes. Kevin O’Connell has described the Vikings’ offense as “week to week” given the uncertainty at quarterback following Kirk Cousins’ season-ending Achilles injury. That label remains following Mullens’ four-INT game Sunday, as he threw the game-ending interception in the final minute with a chance to steal a huge win. Mullens narrowly missed a career high in pass yards, completing 22 of 36 passes for 411 yards (his career best is 414) and two TDs, playing some of his best ball following the first two picks in Jordan Addison’s direction. Mullens and Jefferson had incredible moments, hooking up six times for 141 yards and two scores, even if the final two picks were thrown in his direction. Jefferson took over in the second half, grabbing a miracle conversion in the final 90 seconds to keep the Vikings’ hopes alive. But Mullens’ off-target pass with just under a minute left fell into the hands of the Lions, ending any hope of a comeback. With Joshua Dobbs and Mullens at QB, turnovers have damaged Minnesota’s chances of making the postseason down the stretch. In the past four losses, the Vikings have turned the ball over 16 times — with 15 by the QBs.
3. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown delivered the goods offensively. Gibbs lost a fumble after a 14-yard run in the first quarter, a rare mistake in an otherwise terrific game for the NFC North champs. (And the Lions’ defense bailed him out with the first of four interceptions on the ensuing possession.) It was Gibbs’ second touch of the game, and it took until the mid-second quarter for the Lions to get the ball back in his hands. But once they did, Gibbs took over. He converted a fourth-and-1 with an 18-yard burst and then broke a tackle on his 14-yard TD run to give the Lions a 17-7 first-half lead. The Vikings scored on their final possession of the first half and on the first drive of the third quarter, giving Minnesota a 21-17 lead, and Gibbs once again delivered thereafter. He had 14 of his 19 touches in the final 26-plus minutes of the game, making it a two-possession game with his fourth-quarter TD run. Gibbs finished with 100 total yards from scrimmage. St. Brown added 12 catches for 106 yards, with most of his production coming after halftime, too. His TD catch allowed the Lions to reclaim the lead they would not relinquish. They’ve been horses for the Lions this season, and they each helped Detroit turn in its eight game of the season with 30-plus points.

NFL Research: On Sunday, Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown became the fourth player in NFL history to have 300-plus receptions in their first three NFL seasons.

Next Gen stat of the game: Jared Goff was effective against the Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme, completing 22 of 28 attempts for 183 yards and a touchdown (+5.0% CPOE) when blitzed. Goff faced his highest blitz rate of the season against the Vikings in Week 16 (68.3%), though his lone sack on the day came when he was not blitzed, and Goff averaged just 3.7 air yards per attempt against the Vikings blitz, his lowest mark when blitzed this season. 

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New York Jets

2023 · 6-9-0

30-28

Washington Commanders

2023 · 4-11-0

FULL BOX SCORE

• READ: Jets owner confirms Saleh, Douglas to return in 2024

Nick Shook’s takeaways:

1. “Legatron” saves the day. It wouldn’t be a Jets game in 2023 without spanning the full emotional spectrum within four quarters of football. New York came out on fire Sunday, creating turnovers and capitalizing on their way to a 20-0 lead. They were dominating into the middle of the third quarter, but may have gotten a little too complacent — or Jacoby Brissett‘s insertion into the game was the key Washington needed to unlock their offense. Either way, the Jets collapsed, blowing a 20-point lead in roughly one quarter of game time. But fortunately for New York, Trevor Siemian and Breece Hall were able to do just enough to get into field goal range, setting the table for Greg Zuerlein to rescue them from an embarrassing defeat via a 54-yard field goal. Zuerlein is quietly having a fantastic season, converting all but one of his 28 attempts. This one may have mattered the most.
2. The Sam Howell era is probably over. This is a lost season for Washington, where change is imminent, but the last two weeks have produced a stark contrast in performances between Howell and Brissett. Washington could do nothing right through two and a half quarters, and for a second straight Sunday, Ron Rivera pulled him in favor of the veteran. Instead of continuing to trudge through a bleak Christmas Eve, Washington woke up with Brissett at the controls, piecing together three straight touchdown drives in the second half to take a 28-27 lead. The Commanders looked like a completely different team with Brissett in the game, eliminating the prevailing excuse for Howell, who was supposedly dropped in an unfair situation and forced to make the best of it. Howell won’t wash out of the league any time soon, but his viability as a starter — in Washington or elsewhere — has taken a significant hit in the last two weeks. And it might have been even worse, had Washington held on to win.
3. Jets rally around Robert Saleh following weekend news. New York played inspired football in the first half Sunday, so much that I began to wonder if Aaron Rodgers‘ activation to the 53-man roster — a move made solely to give him more practice time, and perhaps improve the vibes around the team — truly had made a significant difference for the Jets. But what we were likely witnessing was a team relieved of worry about an uncertain future. With Woody Johnson’s reported confirmation that Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas would be back in 2024, New York performed as if they were building toward a more hopeful future. The Jets’ defense showed up per usual in the first half, forcing two turnovers and turning both into points. Even when the walls of MetLife Stadium seemed to be crumbling around them, they found a way to survive and win.

NFL Research: Breece Hall is the sixth player in NFL history to have multiple games with 95-plus rushing yards and 95-plus receiving yards in his career, joining Walter Payton, Thurman Thomas, Larry Brown, Priest Holmes and Brian Westbrook.

Next Gen stat of the game: Jacoby Brissett generated more expected points added (+7.2) Sunday than Sam Howell has in any game in 2023.

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Seattle Seahawks

8-7

20-17

Tennessee Titans

5-10

FULL BOX SCORE

• READ: Geno Smith takes turn authoring game-winning drive: ‘I’m thinking just like last week’

Kevin Patra’s takeaways:

1. Geno Smith leads Seahawks to game-winning drive. Back-to-back weeks brought back-to-back game-winning drives for Seattle. Smith matched Drew Lock’s Monday night heroics, guiding a 14-play, 75-yard touchdown march, threading the go-ahead dart to tight end Colby Parkinson with less than a minute remaining. Returning after missing two games, Smith got off to a rusty start, missing several passes while throwing for 69 yards in the first half. The quarterback bounced back in the final two quarters, rifling darts to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and others to finish with 227 yards and two TDs. Seattle scored on its three second-half drives to overcome a seven-point second-half deficit. It wasn’t always pretty, but Smith made big-time plays when the Seahawks needed him the most.
2. Titans battle but come up shy. With nothing to play for but pride, Mike Vrabel’s squad was feisty against a playoff-hopeful opponent. If the end is near for Derrick Henry in Tennessee, the bruising running back attempts to go out with a flourish. Coming off a dismal performance last week, Henry earned 99 scrimmage yards, including 88 on the ground with a rushing score. The RB also threw a 12-yard TD pass to open the scoring early. Starting for an injured Will Levis, Ryan Tannehill looked like a QB who hadn’t played since mid-October. The veteran missed a host of throws, never generated anything downfield, and took six sacks behind a porous offensive line. With a chance to lead a last-minute scoring drive, Tannehill took two brutal sacks to sink any chances. Veteran QBs can’t make those types of plays and expect to win.
3. Seahawks move into playoff position. Back-to-back wins pushed Pete Carroll’s crew to 8-7. Coupled with losses by Minnesota and New Orleans in Week 16, Seattle sits a game up for the No. 7 seed in the NFC. Sunday’s victory was massive for Seattle’s playoff hopes, with games at home against Pittsburgh and on the road in Arizona to close the campaign.

NFL Research: Geno Smith now has four game-winning drives in 2023 (T-most in the NFL, entering late games). Smith has seven game-winning drives since 2022 (he had 7 GW drives in his career prior to 2022).

Next Gen stat of the day: Derrick Henry generated a 63.2% rushing success rate, his highest in a game over the last three seasons (19 carries, 88 yards, TD, +2 RYOE). Henry gained more rushing yards than expected for just the fifth time this season (10 games with negative RYOE).

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