MLB Must Bet Props: Strictly Team Totals | July 11th, 2024
Happy Friday, Junior ( Thursday)!
Today’s props will be my staple, my bread and butter. If you’re not yet acquainted with my favorite baseball prop bet for this season, you’ll soon become familiar with it.
Today is the day to boost our wealth. Let’s earn some cash!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Wednesday’s card went 4-4 (+1.19 Units)
Let’s make Thursday feel like it’s really Friday!
Team Total: Astros F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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Astros star, Yordan Alvarez, admires home run.
The Stank:
Seriously! This is my main source of income. I search for these daily, regardless of the cost. First five team totals are what I live for.
Today’s victim will be Marlins starter Roddery Munoz, who enters today with the worst pitcher rating on Batters-box.com’s ratings. The 24-year-old right-hander has been struggling on the bump all season, posting a putrid ERA of 5.48 and a 1.47 WHIP. He has allowed teams to surpass 2.5 runs in four of his 9 outings this season. Not the most significant number, but he has allowed teams to go over 2 runs in seven of his nine outings. He does not give up a lot of hard contact, but he is not getting hitters to strike out or ground out.
The Astros enter today’s game possessing the best average hitter matchup rating for both default and current season ratings. They proudly feature seven top-tier hitters (3 default, 4 current) and rank in the top ten for initial-five scoring, with an average of 2.63 runs per game. Their average score in home games this season is even more impressive, at 2.93.
It’s worth noting that Munoz has a 5.67 ERA in eight night games, giving up an average of 3.25 runs per game. For some reason, he appears to have more difficulty performing at night, which could present a possible betting opportunity.
Sprinkle of the Day: If Yordan Alavarez plays today, bet hit home run prop
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)
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The Stank:
Just to ensure full transparency, which I always strive for, I must admit I am slightly nervous about this one. This feeling stems solely from the small sample size available on Dodgers starter Landon Knack and the fact that he has only allowed one team to exceed this number in his seven starts.
However, allow me to explain why this is an attractive wager.
Today, Mr. Knack has the second-lowest pitcher rating, with a high average matchup hard contact of 47.95%. He also finds it challenging to make hitters strike out and ground out.
Ring the bell!
The @Phillies are the first team to 60 wins! pic.twitter.com/rBcloV1UKq
— MLB (@MLB) July 11, 2024
The Phillies have the most elite-rated hitters on the day, according to Batters-Box.com, with five in the default and six in the current season ratings. They are the number-one scoring team in the first five innings, averaging 3.08 per game. At home, it gets even better, scoring an average of 3.35 runs per game. In their last three games, they are averaging over four runs.
Knack’s propensity for allowing harsh contact is outrageous, making this an essential bet for me due to the Phillies’ exceptional matchup ratings. Despite Knack’s record of limiting teams from exceeding this number or his other statistics, I would advise caution. Nonetheless, we anticipate that the Phillies will assert their dominance right from the start tonight.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my preferred website for finding the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB bets. While it’s not the only resource, it’s an excellent starting point for your daily baseball wagering. Using Batters-Box.com last season, I gained 98 units. Skeptical? Verify it on my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather other statistics, helping me determine whether a player is worth my consideration or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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