Sunday Night Baseball, Yankees vs Red Sox: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (7/28)

Another week has gone by and we have another edition of Sunday Night Baseball upon us tonight, and we are in for quite a treat. This rivalry is older than your grandparents, it’s nearly as old as sliced bread, and it’s certainly older than that piece of fruit in the back of your fridge that is starting to look like a fuzzy tennis ball (You should probably throw that out). Yes, I am indeed talking about the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at none other than Fenway Park.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Happy Sunday Night Baseball.

These teams have split two very tight but high scoring games so far this series, but Boston leads the overall season series 5-3. This will be the 6th game at Fenway Park, with the Red Sox having a leg up at home leading 3 games to 2. These AL East rivals are also battling for not only the division, but Wild Card seeding as well.

AL East Standings

• Orioles 61-43
• Yankees 61-45 (1 GB)
• Red Sox 55-48 (5.5 GB)

Yes, the Rays and Blue Jays are there, but they aren’t relevant at the moment. As it stands, the Yankees are trying to catch the Orioles, while the Red Sox are fighting both of them, as well as a couple of AL Central teams for the 3 Wild Card spots.

AL Wild Card Standings

• Yankees 61-45 (+3.5 GB)
• Twins 57-46 (+1 GB)
• Royals 57-48
• Red Sox 55-48 (1 GB)
• Mariners 55-51 (2.5 GB)

If the season ended right now, the Red Sox would miss the playoffs. Point being, both these teams have everything to play for and everything to lose. While 2nd place in the AL East is likely safe with the top Wild Card spot, the Yankees certainly have their eyes on the division title.

Yankees vs Red Sox: A Tale as Old as Time

Game Information – Yankees vs Red Sox

• Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
• Date: Sunday, July 28th, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers

• New York Yankees: Carlos Rodon (10-7, 4.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
• Boston Red Sox: Tanner Houck (8-6, 2.71 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Yankees +1.5 (-206)
• Red Sox -1.5 (+176)

Money Line

• Yankees -108
• Red Sox -102

Total

• Over 9 (-107)
• Under 9 (-113)

Can Red Sox Find a Way to Win at Home?

Neither team has looked great since the All Star Break, and both have all the reasons in the world to turn it around. Now is time to fine tune everything before a playoff run, not the time to have everything fall apart.

Boston is just 2-6 since the All Star Break, getting swept by the Dodgers in LA and losing 2/3 against the Rockies in Coors. They are back at home tonight, but are just 25-26 at Fenway Park. Tanner Houck gets the nod and his sub 3.00 ERA increases slightly at home, but just up to 2.96. He is coming off a rough outing at Coors Field where he allowed 4 runs on 10 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings. Houck escaped with a no decision, like he did the first time he faced the Yankees. In that game at Yankee Stadium, Houck only lasted 3.1 innings, giving up a run on 2 hits and 4 walks. So far this season, Houck has home wins over the A’s, Tigers, Phillies, and Guardians and he will look to add the Yankees to that list tonight.

On the other side of things, Carlos Rodon as the lefty looks for his 11th win of the season. Rodon’s numbers increase slightly on the road, and he got ripped the last time he saw the Red Sox. At Fenway in mid-June, Rodon allowed 5 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings as he took the loss. The Yankees lost that game 8-4, and that was the first of 5 losses in 5 straight starts for Rodon. But, he is coming off a solid outing post break.

Rodon pitched 7 innings against the Rays, allowing just 2 hits, one being a solo home run, while striking out 10 batters. Will we see that same stuff tonight? Or will we get the old Rodon, who allowed 29 runs over 6 starts?

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Best Bets

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction: Yankees Win

Best Bet: NYY/BOS Over 9 (-107) BetOnline

I’m pretty sure we’ve bet on the juiced balls on Sunday Night before, and I think we’ve even done so in Fenway. Well guess what, we are doing it again. So far, we have had games with 16 and 19 total runs in this series, plus these teams have lit up the scoreboard each time they’ve played. In this matchup, the Over 9 is 5-2-1 with one of those losses ending with 8 total runs. These teams love to put on a show, and it certainly makes sense that they would bust out the juiced balls on national television in a classic rivalry.

Not only that, but Boston has cleared this number in 6/8 games since the break, including a game where they allowed 20 runs. Their batting average increases slightly at home, and they’ve been hitting .281 as a team in the month of July. Against Rodon who struggles on the road, I think they can keep it up. The Yankees have also gone over this number in 6/8 post All Star Break, including their past 3 games. New York bats .249 as a team, but .256 against lefties and on the road, and Houck’s numbers inflate slightly at Fenway Park.

On national TV tonight, who doesn’t want to root for some runs? Give me over 9 tonight at Fenway!

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