Cubs vs Pirates: MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (8/28)

While the Milwaukee Brewers essentially have the NL Central wrapped up, two other teams face off today for a divisional showdown. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs this afternoon at PNC Park, and we get to see rookie righty Paul Skenes pitch once again. Despite the Pirates being 13.5 games back in the NL Central, they are still tossing out their stud, most likely in order to make sure he wraps up the NL Rookie of the Year award.

As for the Cubs, they now find themselves in 2nd place of the Central, 9 games behind the Brewers. There is still plenty of time for the Cubs to overtake Milwaukee, but they will likely need to win a large portion of their remaining games. The Cubs already took the first two games of this series, in relatively dominating fashion. Chicago won 18-8, and 9-5 the past two contests, and they lead the overall regular season series 5 games to 4. The teams still have a short series remaining early next week, but obviously they will both be looking to get the win tonight.

Pittsburgh looks to 1) avoid the sweep at home, and 2) even up the regular season series. I have faith in them with Paul Skenes on the mound, especially facing Kyle Hendricks who has not been good at all this year. Can the Cubs pull off the road sweep? Or will Skenes shove his way to a Pirates victory at home?

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates: NL Central Matchup

Game Information – Cubs vs Pirates

• Venue & Location: PNC Park (Pittsburgh, PA)
• Date: Wednesday, August 28th, 2024
• First Pitch: 12:35pm Eastern

Cubs vs Pirates Starting Pitchers

• Chicago Cubs: Kyle Hendricks (3-10, 6.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes (8-2, 2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP)

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Cubs +1.5 (-142)
• Pirates -1.5 (+122)

Money Line

• Cubs +146
• Pirates -159

Total

• Over 8 (-120)
• Under 8 (+100)

Will Skenes Shove at Home against Cubs?

Despite the Pirates losing their last two and 3 of their L4, their shining moment this season has been the rookie Skenes. He’s up for Rookie of the Year and his name is even whispered around the Cy Young award, and I will admit I am a bit surprised they haven’t shut him down for the season. But, when he is pitching like this, it’s tough to stop him.

Skenes has won two straight starts, allowing just 2 Earned Runs on 5 hits and 5 walks in 12 innings pitched. He struck out 15 batters combined as well, both of these starts at home. While his splits suggest he pitches better on the road, so do his day/night splits. In 47 innings pitched during day games this year, Skenes has a 1.90 ERA and aa 0.93 WHIP. The man is a different animal, and although the Cubs bats have been decent recently, I do not trust them today.

Chicago is just 31-37 on the road this season, and despite winning 5 of their L6 games, they do struggle against RHP. The Cubs bat just .234 against RHP this season, but they are hitting .259 as a team in August. Could the Cubs be picking up some steam at just the right moment? Or is this just a fluke?

Regardless of how they hit today, it will be tough to win with Hendricks on the mound. Hendricks has just 3 wins on the year, and his ERA. inflates to 7.16 on the road this season. He’s allowed 2+ earned runs on 5 of his L6 outings, and he’s 1-3 those starts as well. In 9.2 innings this year against the Pirates, Hendricks is 0-1 and has allowed 8 earned runs on 13 total hits. He was ripped in his last outing against them, and even though Pittsburgh doesn’t hit exceptionally well, they are hitting .248 over the past two months. Bottom line, I trust Skenes much more than I do Hendricks, and that’s where I’ll be putting my coin.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction: Pirates Win

Best Bet: Paul Skenes to Record a Win (-110) BetOnline

The Pirates are 11-6 with Paul Skenes on the mound this season. He’s only been responsible for 2 of those losses, and he’s pitched well against Chicago. Skenes’ first two major league starts were against the Cubs, and in just 10 innings, Skenes allowed 3 runs on 6 hits and struck out 18 total batters. He also had a no hitter through 6 innings in his first MLB win against the Cubs, striking out 11 batters in the process.

Even though this will be the Cubs’ third time seeing Skenes, I have faith in the young arm to get the job done. By taking Skenes to record a win, we are eliminating plenty of juice involving the Pirates ML. I also opted to back Skenes instead of Pirates F5 -0.5 at (-125), just incase he pitches 6 and thats when the Pirates’ bats decide to wake up. Regardless, I trust Skenes much more than Hendricks, and I slightly lean with the Pirates bats over the Cubs in their respective matchups.

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