MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Plays | August 26, 2024
Happy Monday Day!
Last week was a tough one, but we’re shaking it off and staying focused as we aim to conquer this week.
Here are two props to help start the week on the right foot.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Yesterday’s write up went 0-2. Last week went down 13.0 units. Not the best week, but a cold week was due.
Braves (+0.5) F5 Spread (-145)
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Atlanta Braves stud, Jorge Soler hitting a ball to Mars
The Stank:
Starting the week with a different angle on Monday’s slate, I’m focusing on Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried, who holds the top pitcher rating today according to Batters-Box.com. I’m counting on him to lock down Minnesota’s bats in the first five innings. Fried will be up against a lineup featuring just one elite-rated hitter and five poor-rated hitters, based on current season ratings.
The Atlanta offense includes one elite-rated hitter across both Batters-Box.com ratings and has been middle-of-the-pack in first-five scoring. They’ll be facing Minnesota starter Bailey Ober, who’s had a solid season with a 3.54 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, though he’s allowed four-plus hits and two-plus runs in his last two starts.
While neither pitcher has faced many hitters from the opposing team, I trust the stats and believe Max Fried will get the job done against the Twins, especially given that nine of their hitters have ground ball rates above the league average.
Instead of forcing a play on Fried’s props, I’m going to trust him and the Braves’ offense to keep this game close in the first five innings. Why stress over a player prop bet when I can involve the whole team? Braves (-0.5) first five innings
Rockies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-120)
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The Stank:
The only place you can truly trust the Pebbles is at home, where they can respectfully be called the Rockies. Known for their struggles on the road, they found some success over the weekend against the New York Yankees, averaging 3.33 runs in the first five innings. But it’s Yankee Stadium—everyone gets up for that.
There goes that (Cave)man! pic.twitter.com/WD9L310xna
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) August 24, 2024
Tonight, they’re back home facing Marlins starter Edward Cabrera. For those familiar with my daily scribbles, you know how much I love Edward Cabrera Day—he’s the gift that keeps on giving.
The 26-year-old right-hander enters today’s slate with the third-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com and allows the second-highest hard contact rate to opposing hitters. While he boasts an elite average strikeout percentage, that’s mainly because the Rockies strike out a lot, which doesn’t concern me. Cabrera has a 5.65 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP this season, allowing over 2.5 runs in eight of his 13 starts.
We all know Coors Field is a hitter’s paradise, and the Rockies have always thrived there. This season, Colorado is averaging 2.80 runs in the first five innings at home, hitting .268 with an OPS of .768 and an OBP of .333.
I wish the number was 1.5, but I still like it. Given the Rockies’ track record at home and the fact that the Marlins allow 3.08 runs in the first five innings (the most in MLB), this is a great spot to back them tonight. Rockies F5 Team Total Over 2.5
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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